Jump to content
The Weather Forums

December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


Recommended Posts

Hey, who wants to go ice skating??  Up in MN you can literally put on your skates outside your front door and stroll through the neighborhood!  Incredible...I don't think I've seen anything like that before.

 

href="https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg" "="">https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg

 

April of '76, that was my (folk's) neighborhood, minus all the snow OTG. Jelly of all that snow they have still.  :lol:

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 553
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!  

Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 don

Reports so far are 7-12” with another large area of snow moving north to south basically from South Dakota to Kansas. I think I have 7-8” as of now (unofficially) with moderate snow falling. Just nort

Posted Images

Trends are all pointing positively up north in your neck of the woods. I think the high rez NAM has the right idea and this was today's snowfall map...still snowing heavily up north...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

Would love to see that verify. Seems like it could be a bit overdone though, but who knows. Feel like there will be some nice totals somewhere, but not sure how widespread. Will be very welcomed whoever gets it as the trails have been taking a beating and tomorrow they will really deteriorate with all the rain.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good situation to illustrate the different NAMily products at h84:

 

Low-Res NAM32 (no snow over SWMI)

 

20191124 12z nam32 h84 Surf.png

 

Mid-Res NAM12 (snow ongoing in SWMI)

 

20191124 12z nam12 h84 Surf.png

 

 

Question for anyone. Why even have the 32km since it only goes to h84 like the 12km? Would maybe make sense to me if it went out further (or 12km shorter). Just seems like useless overlap imho

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh man, it is an absolute hazard out there right now. Apparently the metro transit system has been shut down for the first time since '81! Hopefully we can either get some temps warm enough to have plain rain or the roads are going to keep getting worse. Fun storm on radar though!

No kidding! I couldn’t make it to the end of my street with a 4x4 truck. I had to put it in reverse to get back to my driveway because I was unable to turn around without sliding into the curb. St. Paul side streets are still rutted from the earlier snows. Now with the glaze of ice on them they are rutted ice rinks. Any incline will result in your vehicle sliding sideways. It’s really unbelievable. I’ve never seen it this bad. I’m hoping for warm temps and rain at this point.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yikes, not good to see fatalities..Peeps need to be aware. No Ice Storm Warning issued or what??

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We’re literally stuck. My house sits about 3 feet below street level, 150 ft from the street. I have about 0.2” of ice on the driveway and we cannot get out. Went sledding on the driveway with my boy. Starting to rain again and still freezing on contact. Big snowflakes mixed in. Temp is rising but it’s going to take a bit for surface temps to catch up. Craziest thing I’ve seen in a while.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Would love to see that verify. Seems like it could be a bit overdone though, but who knows. Feel like there will be some nice totals somewhere, but not sure how widespread. Will be very welcomed whoever gets it as the trails have been taking a beating and tomorrow they will really deteriorate with all the rain.

 

GFS is way farther east and a bit weaker

 

Icon looks like the NAM’s with similar strength and location.

 

While even the UK had a 979 mb SLP, pretty sure this run of the NAM3k takes the cake for depth of storm and early switch to snow, hence the good accum's on Tom's map. Be neat if it ended up verifying but wouldn't count on it (yet)

 

20191128 12z nam3 h52 Surf.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yikes, not good to see fatalities..Peeps need to be aware. No Ice Storm Warning issued or what??

Although a few recent model runs showed freezing rain, I don’t think any of them showed as much as what has fallen already. Even with the morning update MPX said zero ice accretion for the metro. This was an absolute surprise.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ukie has the low sitting and spinning in northern WI for a good 18-24 hours it looks like

 

Some good snow amounts showing up

 

Post the UK if you can. Thx

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m up to 2.11” of rain already and judging by radar coming down good in Omaha.

I’m currently in Yankton SD where there was no snow or freezing rain last and is just foggy and drizzly right now. Snow is supposed to move in tonight with 4-8”

 

:huh:  Thought you said 8-16" before?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

So far, every heavier shower has gone around me.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, who wants to go ice skating?? Up in MN you can literally put on your skates outside your front door and stroll through the neighborhood! Incredible...I don't think I've seen anything like that before.

What’s that white stuff on the ground?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated warning! Keep coming east!!!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
257 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

...Winter Weather Conditions Expected Through Sunday...

NEZ040-046-047-061-062-072>074-291000-
/O.UPG.KGID.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-191230T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KGID.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191230T0000Z/
Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-
Including the cities of Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,
Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Kearney,
Grand Island, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, and Minden
257 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect until
6 PM CST Sunday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in
effect.


* WHAT...Rain is expected to change to snow this evening and may
be heavy at times, especially from about 8 pm through 2 or 3 am.
There is the potential for a quick 3 to 5 inches of snow
tonight. The heavier snow will taper off by dawn, but light snow
will linger through the day Sunday, possibly dropping another
inch or so of new snow. North winds will ramp up as well and
gust over 40 mph by Sunday afternoon causing blowing snow. Storm
total snow of 4 to 6 inches is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Nebraska, northwest of a line
from Arapahoe...to Grand Island...to Greeley.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility in some areas tonight into Sunday. Roads may be ice
and snow packed overnight and during the day Sunday in some
areas. Travel could be difficult at times tonight within heavier
snow bands.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gonna be an interesting read today, short term models are showing convection with the change over. Good luck Central and Clint!

Same to you. I’ve been following the HRRR and RAP models more as we are close to the event. We all do well on those. Tomorrow will be nasty with a lot of blowing and drifting.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy god, did this get interesting quickly or what?! This thing has dropped South a ton. Must be slowing down, d**n this low pressure is a BEAST. A thing to marvel. A huge what could have been here in Nebraska. We could still salvage something from it, LET'S GET IT ON.

 

I am sweating bullets right on the edge of the heavy snow band area. I could see it missing me 1 county north or west. I'm trying to contain excitement until the bands set up. This has big bust potential as the heaviest pockets should be pretty isolated. If you're lucky enough to get under one, LOOK OUT.   Here's the latest Hastings NWS snowfall update

post-133-0-41037500-1577569867_thumb.png

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro...brings a health wave of snow here Mon night...

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

And it takes a really nice path straight up the middle of the Mitt, curves NW to the Keweenaw, then back down south and east. Spreads the wealth with the 1-3" pinwheel portion even further south. Hard to tell if it has a firm handle on lake contribution on this side of the pond or not tbh? What do you think? Do programmers in Germany sit around trying to tweak localized effects for the midwest in America? 

 

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!

 

20191228 5 pm Surf Map.jpg

  • Like 6

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!

 

attachicon.gif20191228 5 pm Surf Map.jpg

Exactly...and its end of December. That goes to show you how fricken messed up the pattern is. I could understand if it was late November, but at this time of the year, it should be all snow and not having to deal w rain. Hard to believe that even Wisconsin is getting rain outta this system and southern parts of MN currently and not snow. Crazy!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

As I figured the severe weather is zapping the moisture. Doesn't matter much here but the people getting snow bleh.

Speaking of severe weather, I might be in for a few claps of Thunder tomorrow w this system and strong winds as well. Not ruling out a couple of record highs as well. Its going to get wild here on Sunday.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

..and making landfall as a CAT-4 hurr.. (oh wait, wrong season) 

 

20191228 18z nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh35-60.gif

  • Like 6

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...