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December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


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There is finally some heavier rain moving into my area.  It's a solid line, so it shouldn't be able to miss.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!  

Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 don

Reports so far are 7-12” with another large area of snow moving north to south basically from South Dakota to Kansas. I think I have 7-8” as of now (unofficially) with moderate snow falling. Just nort

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18z Euro

1577869200-7KqVujtBHcs.png

 

Have you always been posting Kuchera version? Significant uptick for all of WMI, that's why I'm asking.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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So apparently the constant freeze/thaw cycle the last week or so has caused an ice dam to build below one of my skylights. I see a small wet spot on my ceiling. For the love of all things holy.....stop raining in late Dec. Please. Another 1” or so of rain overnight won’t help.

I feel for ya! Ice dams can be no joke and can cause some serious damage. If you have some salt and some pantyhose, you can fill them up with the salt and place them on the roof perpendicular to the roof line to create channels for the water to drain. Just be careful! Good luck!

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I feel for ya! Ice dams can be no joke and can cause some serious damage. If you have some salt and some pantyhose, you can fill them up with the salt and place them on the roof perpendicular to the roof line to create channels for the water to drain. Just be careful! Good luck!

Thanks for the tip! Coincidentally I bought some roof ice melt a few weeks ago at Home Depot. I put a few salt pucks up there just now. I just didn’t think I’d need them in December. Really hoping that dry slot comes quicker than modeled. A high of 43F tomorrow should help too.

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LNK is at 1.87" of rain for the day. The daily record for December is 2.13" on 12/15/84. More rain is about to move in so it's gonna be a close call. The daily record of 0.33" has already been shattered. Woohoo. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Jesus, the latest HRRR is juiced.  Really impressive deformation band across the area, just waiting for the changeover here. Should time well with these intense precipitation bands.  It's really going to rip under these

 

EDIT: Changeover has occurred! It's going to be a crazy next few hours. Radar is very impressive

post-133-0-85909000-1577589891_thumb.png

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Jesus, the latest HRRR is juiced. Really impressive deformation band across the area, just waiting for the changeover here. Should time well with these intense precipitation bands. It's really going to rip under these

 

EDIT: Changeover has occurred! It's going to be a crazy next few hours. Radar is very impressive

Second nice winter storm for you this year. Still waiting for one in SE Nebraska.

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0.80" of rain here so far.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^ Hello Jack Zone. Would like to meet you one day (sooner than later)..

 

 

With most models tracking the 2ndry over or very near mby, I have a chance to see some unusually low baro readings early morning Monday:

 

20191129 0z nam12 h32 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like I am getting 2 rounds of very hvy rainfall. One later tanite into tomorrow afternoon and the 2nd later Monday night into monday early pm. I.50" of rainfall expected b4 this system finally exits. Mild temps (50s) and thunder is in my forecast as well. Crazy.

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@ Niko

 

NAM 3k showing a solid snow shield Tue morning all the way to Macomb. Keep your eye on this..

 

Will likely be ORD's biggest snow since Vet's Day, and may be same for DTW and Detroit region too.

 

20191129 0z nam3k h60 Surf.png

 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I like this graphic but first time seeing it tbh  :huh:

 

20191229 NWS Precip timing.GIF

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Thx amigo for the heads up!. Wow, I did not see this. :D

 

Looking forward to bumping my Dec snow total before moving onto a (hopefully) better Jan  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looking forward to bumping my Dec snow total before moving onto a (hopefully) better Jan  ;)

Can you imagine after such a snowless December, it leaves w a bang and takes our snow totals back up to average or better. At least if not up to average, a little higher than my 0.5" thus far. Now, that would be something. :blink:

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:lol: Look at the fun MQT has on their hands figuring out Monday's specifics:

 

The other thing to consider is that the forcing for precip looks

very convective. Models (in particular the NAM) show strong jet
level divergence and low to mid-level fgen, but in scattered
splotches rather than in a nice smooth WAA wave. This just further
complicates the forecast. There could be localized areas of heavy
precip next to areas with a lot less. There could be ptype changes
from evaporational cooling in the heaviest precip that aren`t seen
elsewhere. There could be significant changes with elevation given
the marginal surface temps. There could be lake enhancement and
orographic enhancement. Depending on where the cyclone ends up
stalling, there could be Lake Michigan lake-effect snow as well by
late Monday, as 850 mb temps around -8 C atop lake surface temps
around 5-6 C (in the open water) would generate just enough lake-
based instability. In short, the forecast is a mess.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Can you imagine after such a snowless December, it leaves w a bang and takes our snow totals back up to average or better. At least if not up to average, a little higher than my 0.5" thus far. Now, that would be something. :blink:

 

That's not on the table here for me. Not sure what your/DTW's avg is for Dec tho?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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No strikes here but snowing like crazy. 1/4 mile visibility, at least 2” so far. I would say I’m getting 1” an hour rates. Some of the short term models are crazy with amounts. We’ll see what happens

It's official.....you guys are gonna score nicely!

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1211135341479878658?s=20

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Definitely crazy to see that we all broke rainfall records today. At least we aren't in some drought! Hopefully when we turn the page into January we can get the cold air to cooperate.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Just checked some local reports and I'd say I've received about .80" of rain since last night.  It started raining around 10:00pm and it came in waves, some heavy, as I fell asleep like a baby with the sound of the rain.  That's about the only good thing of getting rain in late December.. ;)

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1.09" of rain in my yard.  This is my first 1" rain event in nearly three months.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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