Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Recommended Posts

The GFS and Euro both show nothing through day 10.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Also, with respect to the last system, I made a statement that I would donate to a charity if I got hit good (6"+ or 10"+).  I posted in the storm thread, but didn't ever receive a response from anyon

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look wher

Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics -

Posted Images

:lol:  :lol: ^^ You started a topic for that?  :wacko: :(

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol:  :lol: ^^ You started a topic for that?  :wacko: :(

 

We needed a January thread.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

We needed a January thread.

 

Even more, we need some January action, lol

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS has switched from western troughiness to a huge western ridge/eastern trough by the end of the first week of January.

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

^ Bastardi high-lited this coming pattern shift in today's Saturday Summary. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely seeing some colder weather. Hopefully its strong enough to shunt some clippers further south into Nebraska. Overall not looking good snow wise.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for starting the thread Hawkeye.  I've been swamped this whole past week with the holidays and family in town.  As you pointed out, in recent runs, the models have blossomed onto the idea of the western NAMER ridge which coincides with that strat warm pool.  I'm glad to see this come into fruition as a much colder pattern settles in just after the New year...finally...

 

00z Euro paints a nice snow hole over my area...

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Boy, it certainly looks like January is going to deliver quite the pattern change we all have been waiting for.  In recent days, most of the global and climate models have trended MUCH colder heading into the first full week of January.  I'm impressed at what I'm seeing as there are storms lining up on the calendar once we get past the opening few days.

 

There are several factors lining up quite nicely to deliver the first punch of Arctic air as we open up a new year & decade.  The pattern unfolding across North America should allow our Sub to tap into the large and expansive pool of Arctic air and any storm system coming out of the Rockies will have no problem producing wintry precip. 

 

Here are my storm dates for this month: 

 

1) Jan 6th-8th 

2) *Jan 13th-15th (Gulf Low) 

3) *Jan 15th-18th (Potential Heartland/OHV Blizzard) 

4) Jan 20th-23rd (SW Flow) 

5) Jan 28th-31st (Pre-GHD - III storm...???). 

 

If all the pieces to the puzzle line up just right, this could turn out to be one heckova month for someone across our Sub.  The caveat to this happening comes down to the strength of the SER and if the blocking develops across Canada/Greenland.  IMO, this should be a very busy month with multiple chances of N stream clippers and vicious shots of brutal arctic air during the middle and later parts of the month.  Winter is coming back...finally...after my late December bust, this month will make up for it.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The CFSv2 monthly is beginning to flip from the torch look to a much more widespread colder idea for our Sub.  Here are the temp anomaly maps showing the last 4-runs and most recent run along with the precip anomaly.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Boy, it certainly looks like January is going to deliver quite the pattern change we all have been waiting for.  In recent days, most of the global and climate models have trended MUCH colder heading into the first week of January.  I'm impressed at what I'm seeing as there are storms lining up on the calendar once we get past the opening few days.

 

There are several factors lining up quite nicely to deliver the first punch of Arctic air as we open up a new year & decade.  The pattern unfolding across North America should allow our Sub to tap into the large and expansive pool of Arctic air and any storm system coming out of the Rockies will have no problem producing wintry precip. 

 

Here are my storm dates for this month: 

 

1) Jan 6th-8th 

2) *Jan 13th-15th (Gulf Low) 

3) *Jan 15th-18th (Potential Heartland/OHV Blizzard) 

4) Jan 20th-23rd (SW Flow) 

5) Jan 28th-31st (Pre-GHD - III storm...???). 

 

If all the pieces to the puzzle line up just right, this could turn out to be one heckova month for someone across our Sub.  The caveat to this happening comes down to the strength of the SER and if the blocking develops across Canada/Greenland.  IMO, this should be a very busy month with multiple chances of N stream clippers and vicious shots of brutal arctic air during the middle and later parts of the month.  Winter is coming back...finally...after 

Action packed and loaded from the 5th on.  Can't wait to see what the middle of the month can deliver!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Action packed and loaded from the 5th on.  Can't wait to see what the middle of the month can deliver!

I signed back up with Ryan Maue's site and just in time for the models to trend colder/snowier for this month!  I like what I'm seeing...

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I signed back up with Ryan Maue's site and just in time for the models to trend colder/snowier for this month!  I like what I'm seeing...

Me too things look great and are trending better.  I like your list of dates, you know the middle of the month might bury the both of us if we can get the telleconections to play ball.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Things always are changing but as of this morning the second week of Jan looks to have some promise.

1577577600-jKtix0JXKXk_all.png

1577577600-g2xnwehMb3o_all.png

That -EPO is finally showing up and if we can generate some Greenland blocking along with a SER, the pattern may very well be golden.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I sure hope we can get some snow to go along with the cold.  If the ground will be bare, I'd rather keep the 40s.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for starting the thread Hawkeye.  I've been swamped this whole past week with the holidays and family in town.  As you pointed out, in recent runs, the models have blossomed onto the idea of the western NAMER ridge which coincides with that strat warm pool.  I'm glad to see this come into fruition as a much colder pattern settles in just after the New year...finally...

 

00z Euro paints a nice snow hole over my area...

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

 

Pretty sad that things look so good but the heart of out Sub from OMA to DTW is the new dead zone for snow! 

 

Look at how big the omadome has gotten

 

Yep, got stretched across the entire Sub when TOL_weather re-located east. Got to send him a thank you card!  :rolleyes:

  • Like 3

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has brought the early January system northwest, so eastern Iowa through the lakes gets more rain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a strong feeling January and February will be epic in terms of snowfall for many.

 

I thought the same one year ago, but everything big ended up NW of here! Nonetheless, the bar's set so low now, anything will feel "epic" by comparison. IF any of the seasonal forecasts calling for a big winter around here are going to have a shot at verification, it needs to get going, and soon!

  • Like 3

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro has the storm I've been looking for on the 8th.  Maybe it will trend stronger.

1578441600-mZrCPUfDD5A.png

 

Looks great for yby Clinton. Hope you get it bud. A 540 mb line in TN doesn't bode well for this far north. 

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro has the storm I've been looking for on the 8th.  Maybe it will trend stronger.

1578441600-mZrCPUfDD5A.png

That looks awesome. Hopefully, all the ingredients will come together to make this stronger than what is projected on that map. It looks better for yr area. Hope you score w this one bigly.

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the same one year ago, but everything big ended up NW of here! Nonetheless, the bar's set so low now, anything will feel "epic" by comparison. IF any of the seasonal forecasts calling for a big winter around here are going to have a shot at verification, it needs to get going, and soon!

:lol: Yep, they are starting to slowly run outta time.

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, got stretched across the entire Sub when TOL_weather re-located east. Got to send him a thank you card! :rolleyes:

:lol:

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

What? Tired of getting whiffed in every direction? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ukie has been showing a better developed storm during the Jan 3rd-4th period run after run.  Nice to see the 00z Euro come on board along with the GFS/GGEM.  Might have to start a storm thread for this one if trends continue today.

 

The Euro showing a general 2-4", locally more region wide while the Ukie came in a bit more developed and showing a swath of SN from N MO/S IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ukie has been showing a better developed storm during the Jan 3rd-4th period run after run.  Nice to see the 00z Euro come on board along with the GFS/GGEM.  Might have to start a storm thread for this one if trends continue today.

 

The Euro showing a general 2-4", locally more region wide while the Ukie came in a bit more developed and showing a swath of SN from N MO/S IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  

Trends have been colder for this storm, what a nice way to kick off the month if it keeps trending this way.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Trends have been colder for this storm, what a nice way to kick off the month if it keeps trending this way.

Yup, I agree...this is a sneeky TX Pan Handle system that has potential to deliver another round of accumulating snows in the region.  To bad the models lost the 6th-8th system.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's nice to see most of the models now on board the early January system.

 

The 06z GFS is even more amped.  Temps would be marginal, though, so the system would have to really amp up to produce this kind of snow.  It'll probably be just a small amount.

 

gfs_asnow24_ncus_18.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Temps in January still looking slightly above average. My average high and low at early January averages 31/19, so, still better snow chance, but no real arctic air showing up. Unless, it changes.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z ICON

 

Unfortunately, there's no cold air ahead of the system.  At least half the precip may fall as rain.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...