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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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:lol:  :lol: ^^ You started a topic for that?  :wacko: :(

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We needed a January thread.

 

Even more, we need some January action, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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January enters mild and wet here in SEMI, but hopefully, the following week (Jan 6th and up) starts behaving like it is Jan.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS has switched from western troughiness to a huge western ridge/eastern trough by the end of the first week of January.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^ Bastardi high-lited this coming pattern shift in today's Saturday Summary. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Definitely seeing some colder weather. Hopefully its strong enough to shunt some clippers further south into Nebraska. Overall not looking good snow wise.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Thanks for starting the thread Hawkeye.  I've been swamped this whole past week with the holidays and family in town.  As you pointed out, in recent runs, the models have blossomed onto the idea of the western NAMER ridge which coincides with that strat warm pool.  I'm glad to see this come into fruition as a much colder pattern settles in just after the New year...finally...

 

00z Euro paints a nice snow hole over my area...

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

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Boy, it certainly looks like January is going to deliver quite the pattern change we all have been waiting for.  In recent days, most of the global and climate models have trended MUCH colder heading into the first full week of January.  I'm impressed at what I'm seeing as there are storms lining up on the calendar once we get past the opening few days.

 

There are several factors lining up quite nicely to deliver the first punch of Arctic air as we open up a new year & decade.  The pattern unfolding across North America should allow our Sub to tap into the large and expansive pool of Arctic air and any storm system coming out of the Rockies will have no problem producing wintry precip. 

 

Here are my storm dates for this month: 

 

1) Jan 6th-8th 

2) *Jan 13th-15th (Gulf Low) 

3) *Jan 15th-18th (Potential Heartland/OHV Blizzard) 

4) Jan 20th-23rd (SW Flow) 

5) Jan 28th-31st (Pre-GHD - III storm...???). 

 

If all the pieces to the puzzle line up just right, this could turn out to be one heckova month for someone across our Sub.  The caveat to this happening comes down to the strength of the SER and if the blocking develops across Canada/Greenland.  IMO, this should be a very busy month with multiple chances of N stream clippers and vicious shots of brutal arctic air during the middle and later parts of the month.  Winter is coming back...finally...after my late December bust, this month will make up for it.

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Boy, it certainly looks like January is going to deliver quite the pattern change we all have been waiting for.  In recent days, most of the global and climate models have trended MUCH colder heading into the first week of January.  I'm impressed at what I'm seeing as there are storms lining up on the calendar once we get past the opening few days.

 

There are several factors lining up quite nicely to deliver the first punch of Arctic air as we open up a new year & decade.  The pattern unfolding across North America should allow our Sub to tap into the large and expansive pool of Arctic air and any storm system coming out of the Rockies will have no problem producing wintry precip. 

 

Here are my storm dates for this month: 

 

1) Jan 6th-8th 

2) *Jan 13th-15th (Gulf Low) 

3) *Jan 15th-18th (Potential Heartland/OHV Blizzard) 

4) Jan 20th-23rd (SW Flow) 

5) Jan 28th-31st (Pre-GHD - III storm...???). 

 

If all the pieces to the puzzle line up just right, this could turn out to be one heckova month for someone across our Sub.  The caveat to this happening comes down to the strength of the SER and if the blocking develops across Canada/Greenland.  IMO, this should be a very busy month with multiple chances of N stream clippers and vicious shots of brutal arctic air during the middle and later parts of the month.  Winter is coming back...finally...after 

Action packed and loaded from the 5th on.  Can't wait to see what the middle of the month can deliver!

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I signed back up with Ryan Maue's site and just in time for the models to trend colder/snowier for this month!  I like what I'm seeing...

Me too things look great and are trending better.  I like your list of dates, you know the middle of the month might bury the both of us if we can get the telleconections to play ball.

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I sure hope we can get some snow to go along with the cold.  If the ground will be bare, I'd rather keep the 40s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thanks for starting the thread Hawkeye.  I've been swamped this whole past week with the holidays and family in town.  As you pointed out, in recent runs, the models have blossomed onto the idea of the western NAMER ridge which coincides with that strat warm pool.  I'm glad to see this come into fruition as a much colder pattern settles in just after the New year...finally...

 

00z Euro paints a nice snow hole over my area...

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

 

Pretty sad that things look so good but the heart of out Sub from OMA to DTW is the new dead zone for snow! 

 

Look at how big the omadome has gotten

 

Yep, got stretched across the entire Sub when TOL_weather re-located east. Got to send him a thank you card!  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6z GFS mean

1578981600-QagZocfRK3A.png

Dang! I like what I am seeing amigo! :D Cheers to a snowier January! ;) 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS has brought the early January system northwest, so eastern Iowa through the lakes gets more rain.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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All depends on how strong the GB is, in determining where this low will be positioned.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have a strong feeling January and February will be epic in terms of snowfall for many.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have a strong feeling January and February will be epic in terms of snowfall for many.

 

I thought the same one year ago, but everything big ended up NW of here! Nonetheless, the bar's set so low now, anything will feel "epic" by comparison. IF any of the seasonal forecasts calling for a big winter around here are going to have a shot at verification, it needs to get going, and soon!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro has the storm I've been looking for on the 8th.  Maybe it will trend stronger.

1578441600-mZrCPUfDD5A.png

 

Looks great for yby Clinton. Hope you get it bud. A 540 mb line in TN doesn't bode well for this far north. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro has the storm I've been looking for on the 8th.  Maybe it will trend stronger.

1578441600-mZrCPUfDD5A.png

That looks awesome. Hopefully, all the ingredients will come together to make this stronger than what is projected on that map. It looks better for yr area. Hope you score w this one bigly.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I thought the same one year ago, but everything big ended up NW of here! Nonetheless, the bar's set so low now, anything will feel "epic" by comparison. IF any of the seasonal forecasts calling for a big winter around here are going to have a shot at verification, it needs to get going, and soon!

:lol: Yep, they are starting to slowly run outta time.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What? Tired of getting whiffed in every direction? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Ukie has been showing a better developed storm during the Jan 3rd-4th period run after run.  Nice to see the 00z Euro come on board along with the GFS/GGEM.  Might have to start a storm thread for this one if trends continue today.

 

The Euro showing a general 2-4", locally more region wide while the Ukie came in a bit more developed and showing a swath of SN from N MO/S IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  

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The Ukie has been showing a better developed storm during the Jan 3rd-4th period run after run.  Nice to see the 00z Euro come on board along with the GFS/GGEM.  Might have to start a storm thread for this one if trends continue today.

 

The Euro showing a general 2-4", locally more region wide while the Ukie came in a bit more developed and showing a swath of SN from N MO/S IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  

Trends have been colder for this storm, what a nice way to kick off the month if it keeps trending this way.

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Trends have been colder for this storm, what a nice way to kick off the month if it keeps trending this way.

Yup, I agree...this is a sneeky TX Pan Handle system that has potential to deliver another round of accumulating snows in the region.  To bad the models lost the 6th-8th system.

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