Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 It's nice to see most of the models now on board the early January system. The 06z GFS is even more amped. Temps would be marginal, though, so the system would have to really amp up to produce this kind of snow. It'll probably be just a small amount. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Temps in January still looking slightly above average. My average high and low at early January averages 31/19, so, still better snow chance, but no real arctic air showing up. Unless, it changes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Hope that one comes back today.Too bad temps are a tad warmer for me. Looks like a mix bag for now. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Too bad temps are a tad warmer for me. Looks like a mix bag for now.Temps are looking very marginal but seem to be slowly getting colder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Temps are looking very marginal but seem to be slowly getting colder.Yep, I noticed that as well. I guess that's a start. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z ICON Unfortunately, there's no cold air ahead of the system. At least half the precip may fall as rain. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 This will be a winner for eastern Iowa. Because I'll be in Colorado, leaving Thursday night and won't be home to enjoy the snow. So you can book it. LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z ICON Unfortunately, there's no cold air ahead of the system. At least half the precip may fall as rain. Surface temp are a problem for me, but I still have some time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z GFS backed off big time on snow totals as it is more progressive with the system, but does still give a glancing shot of snow for Eastern Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like a strong -PNA forms in January due to the strong North Pac ridge SW of AK. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1211672473390997506/photo/1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z GFS showing the 6th-7th system...suddenly, things are getting a bit more active and interesting... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Don't have the map, but the Euro shows a decent cold shot 8-10th 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The Canadian is still a bit weaker and farther southeast with the Friday system... and all rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS. The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 How's the UK looking for snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 How's the UK looking for snow? It first has rain lifting up into the lakes, like the other models. Then as the strong vort dives down from the nw, light snow breaks out over Iowa (low-end event for us). The snow would then expand and strengthen from Illinois to Michigan as the system amps up. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Euro pretty weak with snow totals, just too warm. Decent qpf. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The euro is plenty far northwest. However, the system never really organizes beyond the initial development. You'll also notice the plume of gulf moisture gets shunted well out ahead of the system, so it's kinda detached from the moisture. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Euro has a system on the 7th/8th, but it's late developing and there's no moisture until it reaches the lakes. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended. There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way. Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS. The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east. us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_114_5660_310.pngus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_120_5661_149.png BOOM! 12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z mean Dang..gettin in the pinks here! Noice 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The EC gets it's act together a little quicker than the op with the storm on the 7th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended. There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way. Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again.We can do well in such a pattern so long as there’s plenty of moisture. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The EC gets it's act together a little quicker than the op with the storm on the 7th. Tom smoke job! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z meanI'll accept this! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air.Week 3-4 trending warmer as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Icon and GFS both showing the Jan 2/3 system yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Week 3-4 trending warmer as well...Yes, its not looking to be too extreme in terms of bitter cold. Hopefully, its cold enough for snow. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Icon and GFS both showing the Jan 2/3 system yetYeah idk what accumulations look like but low track looked good for mby. GFS looked pretty active throughout the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 winter cancel boys n girls....that cold just keeps running farther down the calendar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 GFS produces lots of precip, just not cold enough for much snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 I can't cite the specific blogs, but I do remember reading that it may be the third week of January or later before sustained cold shows up again. We just have to be patient. But it seems we've had to be patient almost every winter the past few years. Getting tired of this same old song and dance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 Hard to believe that my forecast for Jan 3rd, Friday is calling for rain and temps in the upper 40s. Pattern is all messed up. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 It’s unusual to not have a sub 30 for a high temp in the long range in January here. it will be about 3 straight weeks now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 Get your lawn chairs out. https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1211753851436580864?s=20 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 Get your lawn chairs out. Looking like there’s gonna be a complete lack of blocking in January too. https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1211753851436580864?s=20Lovely 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 Both NAM and ICON this evening develop a nice band of snow on the 3rd. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2019 Report Share Posted December 31, 2019 Both NAM and ICON this evening develop a nice band of snow on the 3rd. Was just going to ask, since this little nugget caught my eye, and it was just issued by NWS an hour ago: DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday A strong storm system may impact the Great Lakes late in theworkweek into the weekend, resulting in possible gales across LakeMichigan. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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