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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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It's nice to see most of the models now on board the early January system.

 

The 06z GFS is even more amped.  Temps would be marginal, though, so the system would have to really amp up to produce this kind of snow.  It'll probably be just a small amount.

 

gfs_asnow24_ncus_18.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Temps in January still looking slightly above average. My average high and low at early January averages 31/19, so, still better snow chance, but no real arctic air showing up. Unless, it changes.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hope that one comes back today.

Too bad temps are a tad warmer for me. Looks like a mix bag for now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temps are looking very marginal but seem to be slowly getting colder.

Yep, I noticed that as well. I guess that's a start. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z ICON

 

Unfortunately, there's no cold air ahead of the system.  At least half the precip may fall as rain.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian is still a bit weaker and farther southeast with the Friday system... and all rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS.  The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_114_5660_310.png

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_120_5661_149.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How's the UK looking for snow?

 

It first has rain lifting up into the lakes, like the other models.  Then as the strong vort dives down from the nw, light snow breaks out over Iowa (low-end event for us).  The snow would then expand and strengthen from Illinois to Michigan as the system amps up.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The euro is plenty far northwest.  However, the system never really organizes beyond the initial development.  You'll also notice the plume of gulf moisture gets shunted well out ahead of the system, so it's kinda detached from the moisture.

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019123012.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro has a system on the 7th/8th, but it's late developing and there's no moisture until it reaches the lakes.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended.  There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way.  Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS.  The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east.

 

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_114_5660_310.png

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_120_5661_149.png

 

BOOM!

 

12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z mean

1579089600-wv9eVeEEAwU.png

 

Dang..gettin in the pinks here! Noice

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended. There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way. Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again.

We can do well in such a pattern so long as there’s plenty of moisture.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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The EC gets it's act together a little quicker than the op with the storm on the 7th.

1578420000-CKsVjSKt01Y.png

1578549600-R1jifnl44n4.png

 

;) Tom smoke job! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z mean

1579089600-wv9eVeEEAwU.png

I'll accept this! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air.

Week 3-4 trending warmer as well...

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Week 3-4 trending warmer as well...

Yes, its not looking to be too extreme in terms of bitter cold. Hopefully, its cold enough for snow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hard to believe that my forecast for Jan 3rd, Friday is calling for rain and temps in the upper 40s. Pattern is all messed up. :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Both NAM and ICON this evening develop a nice band of snow on the 3rd.

 

Was just going to ask, since this little nugget caught my eye, and it was just issued by NWS an hour ago:

 

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

 

A strong storm system may impact the Great Lakes late in the

workweek into the weekend, resulting in possible gales across Lake

Michigan.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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