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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Uh, yeah!

 

20191231 0z ICON h114.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Very close for a major snowstorm for mby....dang! You look golden.

 

Starts as a lot of rain, but I'd take a rain-to-snow system over pure rainer any day. Also, could trend a tad chillier in the coming days?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z GFS

 

There are a few pieces of energy involved, so the details should continue to change for a couple days.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Get your lawn chairs out. Looking like there’s gonna be a complete lack of blocking in January too. https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1211753851436580864?s=20

We're already seeing shorts and poolside parties.

This is simply ridiculous.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Starts as a lot of rain, but I'd take a rain-to-snow system over pure rainer any day. Also, could trend a tad chillier in the coming days?

Exactly, plenty of time for this to change, but hopefully on a snowier note. I mean, getting rain in January is just pure crazy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Exactly, plenty of time for this to change, but hopefully on a snowier note. I mean, getting rain in January is just pure crazy.

 

NAM only goes to h84, but it clearly shoots 2 waves, the first is a goodly slug-o-rain for the entire Mitt, then it appears to be developing another healthy wave that looks more snowy. I think it was APX mentioning a Clipper coming across ONT that will drape a CF thru the Lakes for the system to work with. Might be just enough colder air if all goes favorably. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM only goes to h84, but it clearly shoots 2 waves, the first is a goodly slug-o-rain for the entire Mitt, then it appears to be developing another healthy wave that looks more snowy. I think it was APX mentioning a Clipper coming across ONT that will drape a CF thru the Lakes for the system to work with. Might be just enough colder air if all goes favorably. 

It will turn colder, but I am thinking it might not be cold enough for snow. Perhaps a mix bag of precip. Slopfest could be in the cards, but we will see.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z UK is pretty similar.  The energy diving in from the nw is weaker and farther west and south, so it never really gets involved and the main system remains weaker.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One can dream...prob the best weenie run of the season for the MW/Lower Lakes...00z Euro back with the storm during the 6th-8th period...of note, there has been an uptick in ensembles showing a wrapped up storm and increasing odds, however, we are still 6-7 days away so much can change.

 

 

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00z Euro going big with the Jan 8th storm

1578571200-VWmAYfYnpXs.png

Glad to see it coming back on the Euro and also the EPS is picking up on it....just checked the 06z GEFS and it's also showing more members with a similar idea.  This could be on of those classic KC/ORD/DTX cutters....

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Glad to see it coming back on the Euro and also the EPS is picking up on it....just checked the 06z GEFS and it's also showing more members with a similar idea.  This could be on of those classic KC/ORD/DTX cutters....

That is what I am expecting with this one.  I think it will look similar to the Nov 21st version.  Did you see the GFS trying to pick up on the cutters toward the end of the run this morning?  We have to get the AO and NAO to go negative!  How does the MJO look?

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That is what I am expecting with this one.  I think it will look similar to the Nov 21st version.  Did you see the GFS trying to pick up on the cutters toward the end of the run this morning?  We have to get the AO and NAO to go negative!  How does the MJO look?

Yup, there are some big storms on the horizon, esp mid month but I'm worried of hard cutters during the mid month period unless things begin to change in terms of blocking.  The MJO is killing us from having a phenomenal pattern I'm afraid.  The only glimpse of hope is if the models trend better with the EPO/NAO/AO.  Last night, there were some better signals that the EPO relaxes but the SER may be to robust and overcome any cold that wants to press mid month.  Those members farther N & W may end up doing very well yet again.

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Mid January shows temps in the mid to upper 40s w rain. :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z Euro going big with the Jan 8th storm

1578571200-VWmAYfYnpXs.png

Wow...that is a doozy of a snowstorm. 10+ for many.......... :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Friday system is crapping out on some models as the pieces are interacting less.  Last night's Euro, the NAM, and now the ICON.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just hope it's not rain.  Teleconnections look terrible.

Ic.....bummer. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Can this pls verify........... -_-

sn10_024h.us_mw.thumb.png.4f2692ab0a6b6b

Not sure where Tom is exactly on this map, but this crushes his area I would imagine. Also, many others get appreciable snows as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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40's in the forecast here for the 9th through the 15th.... I normally dont pay attention to accuweather, but there long range has been pretty darn good since mid December

Yes,  I think Accu-weather has gotten a lot better in their forecast, especially long range and short. I kinda trust them more than TWC tbh.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z GEFS are advertising the BIG potential for someone across the Plains/MW/Upper MW....possibly the Lower Lakes...during the 10th-15th.  In fact, the 12z GFS op flashed my call for a #heartlandblizzard during the 13th-15th.  Lots of potential my friends.  Just need to be patient with this pattern as it has so much going for to unleash something truly spectacular.  I have my concerns for those members across our eastern Sub and of course our southern members who will prob miss out during this period.

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