Jump to content

January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

Recommended Posts

12z GFS mean gets crankin fro the 9th on.

 

1579176000-b8ol9dl7q6o.png1579176000-dkw6kPD6mHM.png

Looking at GFS temps, they plummet down the Central Plains around this same time of this storm of January 12th and onwards. Real potential, but we’ve been teased before with cold that doesn’t materialize. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out in the next few weeks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS mean gets crankin fro the 9th on.

 

1579176000-b8ol9dl7q6o.png1579176000-dkw6kPD6mHM.png

Acceptable in my books. ;) :)

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even though January looks to be AN tempwise, chances for snow has lots of potential for some. Its all about timing, since cold air will be marginal.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t get the reasoning of if the AO or NAO is negative or if there is blocking the storm will track farther SE. This reasoning was used on this past storm and that’s why it hit the upper Midwest.

 

The storm for late in the week is modeled to track out of the southern plains into the Ohio Valley, it’s going way off to the southeast and there is no blocking or a negative NAO or AO.

 

Lezak used this excuse on his prediction for KC to see a major winterstorm with arctic air the last 7 days of Dec. Same indexes later this week and the storm is way off to the SE

 

 

 

???

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS has a colder look to it for KC at times, but the 12z run overall is still much above average on temps.

 

Hopefully we do indeed see the changes back to real winter, but, the GFS has been promising this for 6 weeks now. KC will finish DEC. +6.8 on temps. It’s been very warm in KC since Nov. 15th.

 

Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring winter back. We’re only 10 days into actual winter, 80+ days to go. Plenty of time.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t get the reasoning of if the AO or NAO is negative or if there is blocking the storm will track farther SE. This reasoning was used on this past storm and that’s why it hit the upper Midwest.

 

The storm for late in the week is modeled to track out of the southern plains into the Ohio Valley, it’s going way off to the southeast and there is no blocking or a negative NAO or AO.

 

Lezak used this excuse on his prediction for KC to see a major winterstorm with arctic air the last 7 days of Dec. Same indexes later this week and the storm is way off to the SE

 

 

 

???

I think a lot of the indices are misunderstood on here as far as I can tell. My understanding is that the NAO, AO EPO, PNA, etc are all just numerical descriptions for the general location of jet streams over a certain domain.  For instance, a negative NAO generally means a general trough in the jet stream over northeastern north america, or a positive PNA means a general ridge in the jet stream over western north america.  These indices don't control the development of future weather themselves, they are just numerical descriptors.  One could in theory take the value of each index and blindly draw the general jet stream locations over the areas they cover to get a rough approximation of the weather.   

 

The only index I am aware that controls future weather is ENSO, and its influence is on a seasonal level and still not fully understood.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great looking map bud, I'll tell ya that. Hope it verifies.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEFS and members are not ready to give up on a small storm Jan 3-4th.

1578193200-jfAR0jNFyT4.png1578193200-lTbbhA0hHcA.png

This is probably the appetizer..... :D ;)

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40's in the forecast here for the 9th through the 15th.... I normally dont pay attention to accuweather, but there long range has been pretty darn good since mid December

 

12z GEFS are advertising the BIG potential for someone across the Plains/MW/Upper MW....possibly the Lower Lakes...during the 10th-15th.  In fact, the 12z GFS op flashed my call for a #heartlandblizzard during the 13th-15th.  Lots of potential my friends.  Just need to be patient with this pattern as it has so much going for to unleash something truly spectacular.  I have my concerns for those members across our eastern Sub and of course our southern members who will prob miss out during this period.

 

LOL, I take a day off from following the action to go out and enjoy the #realsnow, and trying to catch-up on this thread. Pencil me confused. So many conflicting posts. A bunch saying the month's going up in a torch, and just about as many saying "storms, storms, and rumors of storms" storms galore on this run or that model. Anyways, quite that coaster ride. I see it's indeed now 2020 so I wish all here a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!!  :D

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL, I take a day off from following the action to go out and enjoy the #realsnow, and trying to catch-up on this thread. Pencil me confused. So many conflicting posts. A bunch saying the month's going up in a torch, and just about as many saying "storms, storms, and rumors of storms" storms galore on this run or that model. Anyways, quite that coaster ride. I see it's indeed now 2020 so I wish all here a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!! :D

Happy New Year Jaster! Welcome to 2020! We still have 40 min left of this decade. Have a fun and safe New Year everyone!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just listened to Henry Margusity, formerly of Accuweather, who now has his own blog entitled "Weather Madness".  Anyway, his take is that the cold will likely come back east of the Mississippi the later part of January, but not unless the Pacific Ocean cooperates and the El Nino begins to subside.  I think he's spot on.  Somehow, it always seems like the Pacific Ocean is the bully when it comes to weather and climate.  It will have it's way regardless of all the other factors.  

 

My New Year's wish is that we all get to cash in on some awesome winter weather in 2020. 

 

Happy New Year everyone! 

 

I always enjoy reading your posts!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro...the first map is for the 3rd-5th system and then the last map is showing total snowfall post 6th-8th storm....busy week of model watching ahead for the MW/Lower Lakes region...could the tables be turning???

 

:huh:  :huh:  Suddenly, the Jackzone is SOUTH of me?? Seriously? After all this talk of warm rainers going over our heads or waaayyy north. This is schitzo stuff, lol

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TOL_weather special  :)

1578236400-vayDXUTsS7w.png

 

Wait. A. Minute! He cannot stretch that dome across the Sub, then sneak a storm in for his back yard. Calling a foul on him if that verifies  :P  

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro still has a decent system on the 7th.  The other models either have nothing or not much until east of the subforum.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome to 2020!  The future is here...sounds crazy to say this after watching so many movies in the 90's and seeing what 2020 may look like.  Well, we are all here and it's a great time to be alive!  For our snow enthusiasts, the 00z Euro still trying to lay down a significant snow for IN/OH/S MI peeps for the weekend storm.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good buddy of mine lives just outside Rhinelander,WI. They (Rhinelander)  just set the record for most snow in a calendar year (133") with a fresh 10" just the other day. Of the 133"- nearly half fell in FEB of 19' with 62".

 

Winter just seems stuck around the 43- 44 latitude line- North is Winter-- South is about 3 seasons in a week. Fall/Winter/Spring REPEAT>- there is just no staying power in any weather in this pattern.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...