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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Rise 'n Shine on this new day of this new decade!  After a few hours of sleep, my internal clock just doesn't allow me to sleep in anymore like I used to.  In any event, here we are, the year 2020, and what a year it will be...I have a real good feeling about this year being extraordinary in many ways.  I'll share with you all some of the exciting things I've been working on over the past several years.

 

What's in store in the LR???  Boy, its like nature wants to hit the REPEAT button if you remember Jan '19, but there are some differences and I'll explain.  Firstly, nearly every single model is suggesting the return of a stout SER signal (-3 standard deviation) come mid month which will unfortunately (for us folks farther east/south) set up quite a battle zone and a stupendously active STJ across our Sub Forum by the 10th of this month (give or take a day or two).  There are a couple conflicting signals I'm seeing during this period, however, that may allow for the storm track to press just enough to allow more storms to cut farther east which will put more members out in NE/IA/MO/KS/WI in the game to be on the receiving end of primarily snow events.  I gotta tell ya, what I'm seeing in the models reminds of past events/patterns that suggest an extraordinarily active/wintry period that may in fact produce a historic stretch of winter (Plains/Upper MW/W GL's).  I'm almost certain that the norther tier of our Sub will be in a hot spot of frigid arctic air that will "pool up" and eventually bleed south in due time, but I think that will happen once we get past the middle part of January.  

 

In the meantime, we have several storm systems to track and the operational models are having a devil of time trying to figure out the first system due this weekend system around the lower lakes/OHV. 

 

The 06 GEFS members below still showing some decent hits...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_108.png

 

 

The following potential system has been showing up on the Euro run after run, but last nights EPS seems to have taken a step back.  Needless to say, the 6th-8th period needs to be watched as well.  

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_180.png

 

 

The 3rd system on the calendar (which I originally did not suggest in my early post a few days ago) is between the 10th-12th which correlates to the Vet's day storm in November.

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_282.png

 

 

The 4th system, between the 13th-15th has real potential to become a historic storm (Blizzard) for someone across the heartland and likely unleash the Arctic hounds the will be abound for our Sub.  I really envision something quite fascinating to develop and undoubtedly set up a similar extreme temp gradient pattern we all saw that set up in the months of Oct/Nov.  It'll be interesting to see where this battle zone sets up  shop over the course of the next 1-2 weeks.  Let's see how the models trend over the next couple days.

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01/12z NAM has come into better interaction with the weekend potential. Looking a lot more like the 01/0z agreement GRR mentions between Euro/GFS. 

 

20200101 12z nam12km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh66-84.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice! Thx Clinton, and Happy NYD 2020 to ya!

 

GFS trolling me with a Toll Road special way out there in La-La Land for the middle of the month potential Tom mentions.

 

20200101 6z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h372.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

I liked the old way also.

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01/12z NAM has come into better interaction with the weekend potential. Looking a lot more like the 01/0z agreement GRR mentions between Euro/GFS. 

 

attachicon.gif20200101 12z nam12km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh66-84.gif

I like this. Beautiful! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

 

 

I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

 

 

I liked the old way also.

I prefer the old version a lot better as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

Yup I agree!
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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

You can add me to the list of who like the old way as well

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Perhaps the Mods should contact iFred and talk about this.

 

For the record I hit like on all the above approvals as I really agree.

I liked the tracking. Those that disagree should post their thoughts, or not if it isn't that important to them. It IS a discussion forum after all.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The 12z Euro has finally given up on the amping of the Friday system.

 

However, the UK and Euro are both now laying down a band of light snow accumulation (1+") through the northeast half of Iowa as the trailing vort max dives southeast across the region.  It's too bad this vort does not have a bit more moisture to work with.  The stupid lead southern wave sweeps much of it away.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A happy and successful 2020 and new decade from your southern sister!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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And now the Euro is also backing off the Jan 7th system.  *sigh*

 

Update:  The system is still there, but more compact, faster, and south.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Perhaps the Mods should contact iFred and talk about this.

 

For the record I hit like on all the above approvals as I really agree.

I liked the tracking. Those that disagree should post their thoughts, or not if it isn't that important to them. It IS a discussion forum after all.

I agree.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A scene from last nite.....Winter Wonderland :D

 

 

20191231_210536.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There is the weekend potential storm for now:

 

SnowPotential.jpeg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I miss the old like button. Sometimes, I don't always have anything to say, but I like what you folks write.

 

Looks like a day 10-11 "hail mary" showing up on 12z GFS. The trends are becoming noted. We'll see how things go in 6-8 runs.

 

If I haven't already been by to say it, HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!! Going to be a great decade.

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Amazing what a couple of inches of snow will do.  Improves the scenery and covers up all that ugly brown grass.  It also went a long way to renew the man-made cross-county ski loop at Lapham Peak state park here in SE WI.  I was afraid that 2 inches of rain would ruin it, but it survived in good shape and I was able to get in 24 kilometers earlier today. What a blast!  I hope "gimmie snow" was able to hit the ski hills and get in some snow boarding.  More snow please!  Bring it on!

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Amazing what a couple of inches of snow will do.  Improves the scenery and covers up all that ugly brown grass.  It also went a long way to renew the man-made cross-county ski loop at Lapham Peak state park here in SE WI.  I was afraid that 2 inches of rain would ruin it, but it survived in good shape and I was able to get in 24 kilometers earlier today. What a blast!  I hope "gimmie snow" was able to hit the ski hills and get in some snow boarding.  More snow please!  Bring it on!

They were closed one day, Sunday, and then opened back up on Monday. I went yesterday, it was pretty icy. But I am just thankful they were open. By noon they had a pretty good crowd. I always worry about these midwestern resorts making it, it's a very tough business. And Christmas break is their make or break time of the year.

 

They've been blowing snow as much as they can, they've done a great job at Alpine Valley. I was really surprised how well everything held up. They still have some decent base. It's basically a foot of solid ice on below of a little bit of natural and man made snow. But it's better than nothing.

 

Unfortunately, the next 10 days don't look good for making good snow. At best they can make overnight, and that's not really enough to fix the way things are. Really need a good 24+ hour stretch below 28 wet bulb to make good snow. When it hangs around 30f, it is bad. The sun is enough to make it loose during the day, then the sun goes down and it turns into ice quickly.

 

I am quite pessimistic. I am in "please just don't rain" mode for the rest of January. If I actually get to use my snowmobile around here I'll be pleasantly surprised.

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

I concur with you and everyone else. Please bring back the old system. Besides, who would actually use the ‘down arrow’ to dislike a post?

 

Happy New Year to everyone on here! I look forward to another year of storms, conversation, and learning. Cheers!

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Here’s some encouraging news right out of the gate on the first of the month/year:

 

MPX:

Looking out past this forecast period, GEFS/EPS mean h5 height

anomalies do show us trending to a potentially loaded pattern, with

a big ridge developing into the northern Pac, deep trough over

western North America, and ridging up into eastern North America.

So enjoy the first 10 days of quiet and mild January weather, since

early indications are that we will be taking a turn for the cold and

snowy come mid January.

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Here’s some encouraging news right out of the gate on the first of the month/year:

 

MPX:

Looking out past this forecast period, GEFS/EPS mean h5 height

anomalies do show us trending to a potentially loaded pattern, with

a big ridge developing into the northern Pac, deep trough over

western North America, and ridging up into eastern North America.

So enjoy the first 10 days of quiet and mild January weather, since

early indications are that we will be taking a turn for the cold and

snowy come mid January.

Yup, nearly all the ensembles are painting a wintry look starting the 10th and beyond.  As has been the case this season, MSP looks to be sitting in a good spot when this pattern arrives.

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I'm happy to report the old "like" system will be integrated tonight...

tenor.gif

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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wow the 18z came in and it's a fantastic run. One of the best ones I've seen for this area honestly. 

 

snku_acc.conus.png

 

All I can say is, whatever year this finally flips back around and OMA to ORD is getting smashed, I hope folks remember these times of dearth in the heartland

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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They were closed one day, Sunday, and then opened back up on Monday. I went yesterday, it was pretty icy. But I am just thankful they were open. By noon they had a pretty good crowd. I always worry about these midwestern resorts making it, it's a very tough business. And Christmas break is their make or break time of the year.

 

They've been blowing snow as much as they can, they've done a great job at Alpine Valley. I was really surprised how well everything held up. They still have some decent base. It's basically a foot of solid ice on below of a little bit of natural and man made snow. But it's better than nothing.

 

Unfortunately, the next 10 days don't look good for making good snow. At best they can make overnight, and that's not really enough to fix the way things are. Really need a good 24+ hour stretch below 28 wet bulb to make good snow. When it hangs around 30f, it is bad. The sun is enough to make it loose during the day, then the sun goes down and it turns into ice quickly.

 

I am quite pessimistic. I am in "please just don't rain" mode for the rest of January. If I actually get to use my snowmobile around here I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Yea, it is a tough business.  Close to where I live, Little Switzerland was closed for a couple of seasons, but has since reopened.  The next ten days don't look good but at least it doesn't look too crazy - no heavy rain or 50 degree temps at least.  I keep hearing on this forum that after mid January things may improve.  I'm hopeful, but skeptical.  Would love to get back on some long x-country ski trails and on real snow. Hope you can get on your snowmobile as well.

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In addition to the UK and Euro this morning, the ICON also has an inch or so of snow clipping through here after sunset Friday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z Euro has moved the Friday night clipper snow well north, so we get nothing down here.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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