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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Was odd see my car thermo reading 29F this evening. Guess I've gotten more used to 50F than 30F lately. Down to remnant drifts and plow piles around here (at least they're a fresh bright white) but there were occasional mood flakes this evening to remind what calendar month this is. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There is now a report of 6" of snow last night from Mt Vernon, 15 miles east of me.  Hopefully, the next storm (if there is one) will be more widespread.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I've been patiently waiting to see some consistency in the modeling and I'm starting to see it evolving where you want to see it and that is up in the Stratosphere.  The Polar Vortex has not been cooperating as it had been very early on in the season but will it finally make a Comeback???  The Scandinavian ridge is going to work its magic and begin to do the dirty work on the Polar Vortex.  It's going to be a slow process to see the effects over North America but that doesn't mean some folks on here will see some wintry weather over the next 5-10 days.  In fact, I am anticipating several storm systems to traverse our Sub in a very volatile pattern.  Big temp swings are in the cards unless you live up north, however, the cold is showing signs of pressing farther south into the MW region by the 15th or so which may allow for some members across NE/IA/KS/MO to be in the game for opportunities at seeing more snow instead of a rain/snow mix scenario.  The EPO will be one of the more important driving patterns over the next couple weeks and I like what I'm seeing as all the models are showing a near neutral to slightly negative EPO pattern developing by the 11th.

 

The GEFS have been advertising a major reversal of temps at 10mb across the N ATL & Scandinavia where you can see by the maps below.  The PV makes an appearance into North America towards the 15th.  IMHO, while we see this happen, the MJO should be heading back down from its major impulse into Phases 4/5 and possibly back into the "Null" Phase.  IF, and that is a big IF, it can veer away from the warmer phases and back into the colder phases or even into the "Null" phase this will help suppress the SER.  The modeling is showing signs that the PNA will eventually relax some by the time the PV makes its way into North America.  As the saying goes, "it's all about the timing"...one of the more active periods of the LRC's cycling patterns sets up during the 2nd half of the month and "The Stars Are Aligning" in the model world.  I'm becoming more convinced that the pattern is going to get progressively colder as we move along this month.  I know some of you have thrown in the towel on Winter but I gotta tell ya, we still have a lot more Winter to go.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see a "Legendary Finish" and a Glacier begin to grow expansively by the 20th.  We'll look back at this month as being Bi-Polar...Warm first half, Cold Second Half...Jan 15th-March 15th could be one hellova ride!  Similar to last year, I am on board with a majority of our Sub to experience a long duration of Winter wx in the weeks to come.  

 

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back with a nice storm from MO into the Lower Lakes...the EPS/GEFS are also on board with a system coming up into the OHV.  Once we get passed this work week our benign pattern will be coming to an end as a more active/wintry pattern sets up shop across the central CONUS.

 

 

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I've been patiently waiting to see some consistency in the modeling and I'm starting to see it evolving where you want to see it and that is up in the Stratosphere.  The Polar Vortex has not been cooperating as it had been very early on in the season but will it finally make a Comeback???  The Scandinavian ridge is going to work its magic and begin to do the dirty work on the Polar Vortex.  It's going to be a slow process to see the effects over North America but that doesn't mean some folks on here will see some wintry weather over the next 5-10 days.  In fact, I am anticipating several storm systems to traverse our Sub in a very volatile pattern.  Big temp swings are in the cards unless you live up north, however, the cold is showing signs of pressing farther south into the MW region by the 15th or so which may allow for some members across NE/IA/KS/MO to be in the game for opportunities at seeing more snow instead of a rain/snow mix scenario.  The EPO will be one of the more important driving patterns over the next couple weeks and I like what I'm seeing as all the models are showing a near neutral to slightly negative EPO pattern developing by the 11th.

 

The GEFS have been advertising a major reversal of temps at 10mb across the N ATL & Scandinavia where you can see by the maps below.  The PV makes an appearance into North America towards the 15th.  IMHO, while we see this happen, the MJO should be heading back down from its major impulse into Phases 4/5 and possibly back into the "Null" Phase.  IF, and that is a big IF, it can veer away from the warmer phases and back into the colder phases or even into the "Null" phase this will help suppress the SER.  The modeling is showing signs that the PNA will eventually relax some by the time the PV makes its way into North America.  As the saying goes, "it's all about the timing"...one of the more active periods of the LRC's cycling patterns sets up during the 2nd half of the month and "The Stars Are Aligning" in the model world.  I'm becoming more convinced that the pattern is going to get progressively colder as we move along this month.  I know some of you have thrown in the towel on Winter but I gotta tell ya, we still have a lot more Winter to go.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see a "Legendary Finish" and a Glacier begin to grow expansively by the 20th.  We'll look back at this month as being Bi-Polar...Warm first half, Cold Second Half...Jan 15th-March 15th could be one hellova ride!  Similar to last year, I am on board with a majority of our Sub to experience a long duration of Winter wx in the weeks to come.  

 

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back with a nice storm from MO into the Lower Lakes...the EPS/GEFS are also on board with a system coming up into the OHV.  Once we get passed this work week our benign pattern will be coming to an end as a more active/wintry pattern sets up shop across the central CONUS.

Nice write up and you did a great job predicting the pattern to become more active after the 10th.  KC folks are beginning to feel like these storms keep targeting Chiefs home games. Personally I like football being played in the snow plus whatever it takes to get some white gold is fine with me.

1578852000-wsmsMKsN9e0.png

1578852000-KkpBSAcgQYU.png

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Well, Well, Well....Winter has decided to pay me a visit later today.... :D

 

NOAA:

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI345 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-060845-Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-345 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightA period of heavy snow is expected this afternoon. Total snowfallamounts of up to 2 inches, with the higher amounts possible.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 31F w clouds on the increase. Some sun trying to peak out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:
 

The short wave feature now rotating across the Dakotas is forecast
to quickly advance across Lower Mi late this afternoon, deepening
and even taking on a slight negative tilt as it works into Se Mi.

There will be a compact region of mid level height falls across the
forecast area preceding this wave. Isentropic analysis indicates
that the dynamic forcing will drive a narrow region of good deep
layer moist ascent, with specific humidities of 3 g/kg being
transported up the 290K surface. The ascent will be capped by a deep
layer of low static stability/weak convective instability. This will
result in a narrow region of moderate to possibly heavy snow
traversing the forecast area in the 19 to 23Z time frame today.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Grand Rapids now has had 16 days in a row of above average temperatures. And during this string it has stay below 32 only on one day. For the season GR is now over 10" below average in the snow fall department. At this time it looks like it could stay mild until late January (the 25th maybe) while there will be chances of some brief cold and snow at this time it don't look to last long. As for February? we shall see. At this time it is cloudy and 32 here at my house.

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Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics - crazy what a difference just a 5 hour drive can make.  

That looks gorgeous!  Great call going up north with the family.  I would have done the same if I could.  What a different world up there and I know the feeling when your driving back home and seeing nothing but brown grass.  Glad you had a good time up there my friend!

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Well, Well, Well....Winter has decided to pay me a visit later today.... :D

 

NOAA:

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI345 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-060845-Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-345 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightA period of heavy snow is expected this afternoon. Total snowfallamounts of up to 2 inches, with the higher amounts possible.

Good luck hope you get it!

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Does it get far enough SE for me?

Looks like after a rain/snow mix it does turn colder as defo band moves through which turns into all snow...the 12z GGEM takes a sweet track from your area up into Lower Lakes but it's lacking the deeper cold but doesn't lack the copious moisture.

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That looks gorgeous!  Great call going up north with the family.  I would have done the same if I could.  What a different world up there and I know the feeling when your driving back home and seeing nothing but brown grass.  Glad you had a good time up there my friend!

 

Literally a different climate man.  I mean the first half of the trip was 30's/40's with heavy rain and the 25"+ snowpack basically held it all.  By the time I left, they were back to over 20".  Quite the contrast to back here.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Thanksgiving snow makes it all they way to March or beyond.

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Euro is trending toward the other models next weekend.... more progressive, more positive tilt... a big rain/storm event south and east of Iowa, but tough to get any precip up here.

 

This winter is going to be delayed until April, isn't it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics - crazy what a difference just a 5 hour drive can make.  

My God does that look absolutely gorgeous!  Thanks for sharing those incredible pics.  Already starting to plan my trip "up north". 

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Good luck hope you get it!

Thx amigo! :D :ph34r:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, cloudy w readings at 32F. A few flurries starting to fly around now. Just came from the gym and it feels and smells like snow outside.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Until the pattern actually flips, I don’t really put much stock into anything.

All you have to do is go back and look at the previous threads and posts with all of the what were pretty much “guarantees” of the worst winter in decades with patterns never before being seen etc. And yet here we are.

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Were at 71* at 2pm. Low of 36* tonight and 62* mañana.

 

NO rain for the next 10 days......C'mom!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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All 5-6" of snow in the little spot just east of Cedar Rapids is already gone.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z GFS gets pretty cold Day 7 onwards, but little to no snow of course. LNK has a whopping 0.01" of precipitation the entire run. Less than 0.10" for many on here. Michigan and areas near the lakes are the exception.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I wouldn't be surprised if we see a "Legendary Finish" and a Glacier begin to grow expansively by the 20th.  We'll look back at this month as being Bi-Polar..

 

I appreciate your morning write-up and disco on the LR. Was out all day so I just now got to it. While I was out, I thought about how similar this winter is behaving to last year. Not entirely the same ofc, as no two snow flakes or seasons will ever be identical but similar enough to notice. Quite a bit more snow in December this winter was nice, but offset by all this torching thru the holidays (sans the NYE/D miracle snow). I know we had something like 6 weeks of little to no winter a year ago, and the snow finally showed up here on Jan 18th (tho many got the MW slider on the 12th south/SW of here). From 1/18 it was then decent winter (snow and cold were frequent and/or dominant) for about one full month. I just found it interesting that you're looking at a potential shake-up in the pattern and a possible return to wintry pattern in that same timeframe as last winter (15-20th). As somebody posted above, skepticism will remain steadfast until we see actual results, lol. Nonetheless, the "pair of seasons" theory would go well with what you've outlined Tom. I hope you're onto something there pardner!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z EC has a narrow but intense band of snow stretching from Columbia, Mo up through Mich.

1578765600-yQjAvwZzQK0.png

 

Haha Clinton. I checked my daily snowfall tables. My last (4) larger storms have all been 7" totals, so that 6.9" amount showing in SWMI near Marshall makes this a viable outcome per my new allotted storm total. j/k ofc, but it's like I've been "capped" or something. High strangeness if you ask me since snowfall in any storm is extremely variable. What are the odds?? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Haha Clinton. I checked my daily snowfall tables. My last (4) larger storms have all been 7" totals, so that 6.9" amount showing in SWMI near Marshall makes this a viable outcome per my new allotted storm total. j/k ofc, but it's like I've been "capped" or something. High strangeness if you ask me since snowfall in any storm is extremely variable. What are the odds?? 

Thats wild given you seem to live in a prime spot for big snows.  Hope you can break the 7in mark this year.  With this storm so many things seem to be going against it, but a good deal of ensembles have it, most NW of the track I posted.  I think someone will get some out of this but who and how much I have no idea,

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Just stumbled on this report from a couple days back. Don't ever remember seeing a ship report, especially during January!

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
156 PM EST THU JAN 2 2020

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 21 NW FRANKFORT 44.81N 86.59W
01/02/2020 M39 MPH LMZ364 MI SHIP

REPORT FROM SHIP WDH7559 (ROGER BLOUGH).
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently at 30F under cloudy skies. Looks like 0.5" fell this evening. Came down quite hard for a little bit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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