January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

00z GFS has a nasty stripe of ice and some snow but still SE of most of us. Good to see that it may trend further west.

 

Another storm follows on its heels on the 16th or so. Looks like it will start getting active by next weekend. Fingers crossed!

[Tom]

I appreciate your morning write-up and disco on the LR. Was out all day so I just now got to it. While I was out, I thought about how similar this winter is behaving to last year. Not entirely the same ofc, as no two snow flakes or seasons will ever be identical but similar enough to notice. Quite a bit more snow in December this winter was nice, but offset by all this torching thru the holidays (sans the NYE/D miracle snow). I know we had something like 6 weeks of little to no winter a year ago, and the snow finally showed up here on Jan 18th (tho many got the MW slider on the 12th south/SW of here). From 1/18 it was then decent winter (snow and cold were frequent and/or dominant) for about one full month. I just found it interesting that you're looking at a potential shake-up in the pattern and a possible return to wintry pattern in that same timeframe as last winter (15-20th). As somebody posted above, skepticism will remain steadfast until we see actual results, lol. Nonetheless, the "pair of seasons" theory would go well with what you've outlined Tom. I hope you're onto something there pardner! 

Here's what we know about this year's pattern:

 

1) Very active storm track across our Sub (including powerhouse storms...Blizzard alley once again thru Sub)

2) We had a very cold Oct/Nov (Cycle #1)

3) The Hudson Bay/North American Vortex was a common theme

4) The pattern is favorable for Blocking to develop (Near Alaska/Archipelago/Greenland/N ATL/Scandinavia

5) The MJO had favorable cold phases (7/8/1/2) during Cycle #1

 

My pre-season ideas of a Legendary Winter, a winter that would have periods of extreme cold and snow did not pan out as anticipated in late December and what looks like the 1st half of Jan.  I really believed it would pull back in early/mid December but then return and never let go.  I was hoping to see something similar to '13-'14 and some late 70's flavor.  As you have mentioned before, it may be wise to take into consideration a warmer era and take that into account moving forward into the following winter seasons where Decembers are lack luster. 

 

If you look back at last year, right around this time last Jan, I remember some members where throwing in the towel and then "boom", the switch flipped and the rest was history.  I'm not saying that the same people will endure a "repeat" performance compared to last season from Jan 15th thru Mar 15th, esp when you take into consideration the back-to-back powerful storms that hit the Plains/Upper MW in March of last year (Mar 9th/10th & Mar 13th/14th record setting storm).  Heck, I remember it remained cold into mid April last year and the year before.  I will say, however, that over the year's of learning and using the LRC, in some instances the LRC behaves in ways where it "skips" a cycle.  Meaning, we will see more of the "same" pattern from cycle #1 into cycle #3.  In essence, we should start seeing a much colder pattern to develop this month and last throughout Feb since we are nearing the end of cycle #2.

 

This is how October/Nov panned out temp/precip wise...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the temp pattern in October and how it resembles what is playing out now during the month of January (cold west, warm east).  Now, look what happened in November where the cold took over the pattern.  Mind you, during this time the Blocking/MJO and storm track seemed to favor the GL's/MW/OHV repeatedly.  Look at what the Euro seasonal is portraying for Feb...similar to November, ay?? FWIW, it is also suggesting a favorable MJO pattern during the month of Feb similar to what we saw in LRC cycle #1 (we should see a similar LRC pattern in Cycle #3).  I hope you can follow what I'm trying to say here bc there is still a lot of winter on the table and its starting right this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

I'll finish this post by pointing out a snow map you had posted on here and asked me if I thought JFM would resemble a more suppressed snowfall outlook.  Do you still have that map???  Keep it handy, b/c it will come darn close to where we are heading IMHO.  Cheers to storm tracking!

 

Oh ya, here is a little teaser from last night's 00z Euro for this Fri/Sat....preview of where we are heading???  It's game time...lets roll!!!!  It also has a nice storm right on schedule (15th-18th) developing in the Plains and eyes for the OHV/Lower Lakes.

[GDR]

Buckle down boys and girls because this is going to be one epic ride coming up!!!!

[Tom]

06z GFS for this weekends storm...models are definitely trending colder and more wintry...

 

 

 

 

00z Canadian...

 

[Clinton]

The latest snowfall maps for the Fri/Sat storm.  

 

[Tom]

The latest snowfall maps for the Fri/Sat storm.  

 

 

 

"Great Minds Think Alike"...seems we just posted the same maps bud!  I like the trends for your region and up this way.  Hopefully we see more consistency today that would justify a storm thread.  It seems to me the EPS is trending snowier as well for this storm back farther west each run.

[Clinton]

Ya it's nice to have a storm to track!  Sorry about the double post lol.  This storm has a ice coponent as well creeping into my area.

 

[Tom]

Ya it's nice to have a storm to track!  Sorry about the double post lol.  This storm has a ice coponent as well creeping into my area.

 

It's all good...ya, ice is no bueno but models tend to overdo the ice IMO...hopefully that scenario won't happen as bad as depicted.

[Andie]

I'm crossing my fingers. Maybe January will deliver. Doubtful

 

[james1976]

Miss to the north and now the south. Seems all I get are clippers.

[Clinton]

6z EC moves NW very similar to a lot of the GEFS members

[jlp]

Miss to the north and now the south. Seems all I get are clippers.

I here ya, saw on the local news that we have only received 2.8" since November 11th Crazy! Hopefully this coming storm will deliver some much needed snow. Its odd that even clippers have been few and far between, they usually deliver majority of our seasons snowfall.

[Niko]

Attm, 32F under deep blue sunny skies.

[westMJim]

At this time it is nice and sunny and the current temperature is 35. The ground here is still very green and there is just traces of snow and left over snow plies  There is a pond on my walking trail near my house and while I am sure it has been ice free in January in the past I sure do not remember it But this year it is ice free at this time (it did have some ice in November and early December but not at this time) Anyway that said I would think that all of the lakes in southern Michigan are ice free at this time. And the Great Lakes are also not only ice free but should be warmer than average at this date so IF any real cold air does come in there still could be some heavy lake effect. I see the lake  event for this week and now been downgraded looks to be just some light snow but not a big deal at this time.

[jaster220]

Buckle down boys and girls because this is going to be one epic ride coming up!!!!

 

Sarc??

[GDR]

[james1976]

Locals are calling for 50s Thursday

[jaster220]

At this time it is nice and sunny and the current temperature is 35. The ground here is still very green and there is just traces of snow and left over snow plies  There is a pond on my walking trail near my house and while I am sure it has been ice free in January in the past I sure do not remember it But this year it is ice free at this time (it did have some ice in November and early December but not at this time) Anyway that said I would think that all of the lakes in southern Michigan are ice free at this time. And the Great Lakes are also not only ice free but should be warmer than average at this date so IF any real cold air does come in there still could be some heavy lake effect. I see the lake  event for this week and now been downgraded looks to be just some light snow but not a big deal at this time.

 

Meanwhile, just a few counties north they're ice fishing on a very large lake. I was shocked to see that tbh. As warm as it's been, I don't know when they had "ice making temps"?? It's a real mystery, even if that lake isn't super deep (27 ft) it is 1.5 x 2.5 miles. That's a lot of ice to form in a warm to very warm regime. I'm a bit baffled. 

[Clinton]

Youch!

[Tom]

12z GFS still advertising a multi-faceted storm with snow, ice and possible severe storms???  

 

 

[jaster220]

6z EC moves NW very similar to a lot of the GEFS members

 

This makes much more sense to me. Sadly, I think SMI will get missed once again. NMI however has scored decent system hits during this La Nino. Lwr Lakes "may" score with a later system as the cooler temps settle south. Just don't see it happening so quickly on the heels of more rainer-torcher torture wx. Nonetheless, I hope somebody somewhere SOUTH of 45N in the Sub scores a good hit. Getting even one cutter in the bag for us in the south will go a long ways towards what Tom is shooting for.  

[bud2380]

For a moment the 12z GFS looked like it was going to strengthen, but it fizzled out on the weekend system.  I guess I see that the original energy moves east and then a secondary weaker deformation band forms further south.  So still some snow, etc, but not much in eastern Iowa.  

[bud2380]

The ICON is very progressive with the weekend system and does not bring in any cold air with it.  

[Hawkeye]

GFS continues to show some very cold air filtering down into the northern plains by mid month.

 

[Stacsh]

Looks to be a storm (2 storms?) this weekend.  Every model has something.  Michigan looks good right now for precip.  From a rainer to snow storm? Ice storm? more rain? who knows.  Something to track.  

[Clinton]

12Z cmc

[Niko]

This makes much more sense to me. Sadly, I think SMI will get missed once again. NMI however has scored decent system hits during this La Nino. Lwr Lakes "may" score with a later system as the cooler temps settle south. Just don't see it happening so quickly on the heels of more rainer-torcher torture wx. Nonetheless, I hope somebody somewhere SOUTH of 45N in the Sub scores a good hit. Getting even one cutter in the bag for us in the south will go a long ways towards what Tom is shooting for.  

Its only Monday. Give it some time.

[bud2380]

12Z cmc

 

LOL, good luck getting someone's back yard to fall in that sliver of heavy snow.  HOpefully as the system nears the back end snow will expand more on models.  

[Niko]

Looks to be a storm (2 storms?) this weekend.  Every model has something.  Michigan looks good right now for precip.  From a rainer to snow storm? Ice storm? more rain? who knows.  Something to track.  

Weekend looks interesting.

[Niko]

In the meantime, its a beautiful day outside. Temp at 37F. Another day being AN.

[bud2380]

I think as long as the 12z Euro comes in with a storm still, it's thread time.  Just based on my observations with what appear to be multiple pieces of this storm, we are a long ways from a consensus solution on it.  

[Hawkeye]

The 12z UK also has precip up to southeast Iowa, although the precip in the cold sector is still stretched out and weakish.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS mean and ensembles

[jaster220]

The ICON is very progressive with the weekend system and does not bring in any cold air with it.  

 

Cold is there, just stays south of it.

 

Looks to be a storm (2 storms?) this weekend.  Every model has something.  Michigan looks good right now for precip.  From a rainer to snow storm? Ice storm? more rain? who knows.  Something to track.  

 

ICON begs to differ!

 

 

LOL @ 12z ICON. Gives SMI the single-finger-salute as it trucks on by keeping ALL precip just south of the 540 thickness line. Not saying it's got it correct from this range, but it is very indicative of a pattern that just does NOT want to yield any good snow storms through this region.

 

 

 

Its only Monday. Give it some time.

 

  Saturday will be 2 full months since Vet's Day with zero snowstorms trekking through here. I think that we've given it PLENTY of time, lol. Actually, if it wasn't for all the models flashing sh*t that never happens, I'd be ok (or at least better) with where this winter stands at the moment. The non-stop carrot dangling is extremely annoying. Could deal with 50% maybe not working out in the end, but that ratio would be light years ahead of where we are now bud. 

[Hawkeye]

12z GEFS mean and ensembles

 

 

 

Wow, that's pretty far nw.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS mean and ensembles

A lot of the ensembles hang back the main energy as the ULL as it cuts up towards S IL/IN...plenty of juiced up members...could be a pretty decent storm in the works 

[jaster220]

Another Lwr Lakes "threat" bites the dust. We had our 12 hrs of cyber excitement tho, didn't we? C'mon be serious now..

[Tom]

The 12z UK also has precip up to southeast Iowa, although the precip in the cold sector is still stretched out and weakish.

I wouldn't say its weak, in fact, its showing an appreciable snow storm all the way back into most of KS/N MO/IL/IN.  Most, if not all, of the precip back in KS is snow from KC on north into MO including N IL.  Parts of S MI/N IN are rain to snow.

[Hawkeye]

I wouldn't say its weak, in fact, its showing an appreciable snow storm all the way back into most of KS/N MO/IL/IN.  Most, if not all, of the precip back in KS is snow from KC on north into MO including N IL.  Parts of S MI/N IN are rain to snow.

 

Yeah.  What I meant was the nw part of the precip shield in Iowa.  This could continue to trend nw and stronger, too, like the GFS.