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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Next week looks very interesting in terms of snowfall.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think the GFS is king in my book. Euro used to be, not anymore.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I appreciate Tom's enthusiasm for the more active patttern and potential snow, but I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS already just crapped out the Wednesday system. The Euro is not onboard anything, yet.

 

That said, it only takes one biggie to turn that frown upside down. :)

I have to agree with you, just in general not even mby. When nature is about to produces an epic snowy pattern, it is obvious and doesn't take nit picking indicies or blocking or model biases or sampling. You just look at the model output and shake your head and ask is this for real gonna happen.

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In the long range, GFS wants to bury a lot of folks......Euro, nasso much! Pick n choose! ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From the KLOT met within the last day. Seems supportive of Tom's call of bolder with the colder as we head into the 2nd half of Jan

 

00z EPS (ECMWF ensemble) has continued theme of last few days of going to a very cold pattern look out in the day 10-15. MJO is at a very high amplitude phase 4 crossing into 5, warm phases for the winter explaining the very pronounced east/southeast ridge currently.


According to information posted on other subs by Don S, this progression has historically supported the MJO wave keeping enough amplitude to progress into the colder phases. Assuming this holds, the idea of a sustained colder pattern unfolding later in January and beyond holds merit. The GEFS has also basically gone over to the EPS idea out in the extended.

I still think our best chance for a more significant spread the wealth type of event would be prior to the pattern going in the direction of the EPS, if it's on the right track. Thereafter, the exact position and orientation of mean western and Alaskan ridging and downstream trough over will determine whether we go to a very cold and dry clipper type pattern (ex. Feb 2015 after GHD II) or a more active but just as cold pattern (ex. January-February 2014).
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Next week starts getting colder by midweek.  Could be very cold the week after.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Friday storm is now much warmer on the GFS and brings rain to Iowa as opposed to the heavy snow it has been showing for several runs.

 

Lol... now that Southeast Nebraska is getting a decent amount of moisture it's showing rain/ice  :rolleyes:

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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0Z GFS is wet and not white. Geez! Still, long way to go. Wonder why its seeing this as a rainer. Hopefully, Wednesday's system is not weak. Should affect the weekend storm a little colder I would imagine.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Friday storm is now much warmer on the GFS and brings rain to Iowa as opposed to the heavy snow it has been showing for several runs.

Yeah. Not liking the trends with it. Probably going to end up being a Dakota crusher when it's all said and done but loads of time for things to change.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The GFS has a 1047mb high pressure over Iowa next Sunday-Monday with highs anywhere between 5 above and 10 below zero, and lows anywhere between 0 and 10 below. A return of the polar vortex?

Would be nice but GFS is a mess from wed and beyond. I will say though that it's been good at sniffing out systems.
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Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern.  I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north.  There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario.  This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

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I’m so hungover. That storm was cool for like 2 hours but it wasn’t really anything to brag about, by any means. I know it’s January, but I’m going to be in Houston Texas for all of February, so I hope I can snag some severe wx while I’m down there and hopefully come back to Chicago and all of you guys under a foot of snow! I think we all deserve it this year

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Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern. I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north. There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario. This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

EURO has the storm? it looks pretty warm

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I think it was Acculess weather that tried (started) naming winter storms. Well I have a great name for the 1st winter storms of 2020. Winter Storm Not!! Here at Grand Rapids Winter Storm Not! dropped a record 2.02" of rain there was some ice but mostly on trees and cars ect the roads were for the most part just wet. The roads did get some sleet and ice on them after dark. The total amount of sleet and snow was 0.4" The high during the event was 48 and the low was 24. At this time I have less than a half inch of ice, sleet and snow on the ground. Needless to say Winter Storm Not! will soon be forgotten. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 20 here at my house

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GFS is garbage. the snow maps are a joke. It gave me 10 inches for this storm. we got 0. GFS is trash. Pretty sure it’s broken.

So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event.

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So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event.

Not just this storm. Gfs has been painting a glacier for quite some time. Only to turn warmer in the near future.

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