Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Next week looks very interesting in terms of snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I think the GFS is king in my book. Euro used to be, not anymore. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I appreciate Tom's enthusiasm for the more active patttern and potential snow, but I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS already just crapped out the Wednesday system. The Euro is not onboard anything, yet. That said, it only takes one biggie to turn that frown upside down. I have to agree with you, just in general not even mby. When nature is about to produces an epic snowy pattern, it is obvious and doesn't take nit picking indicies or blocking or model biases or sampling. You just look at the model output and shake your head and ask is this for real gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 In the long range, GFS wants to bury a lot of folks......Euro, nasso much! Pick n choose! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I have liquid in the forecast twice next week. Epic for January. If Epic is record rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 NAM coming in a little juicier with snow tomorrow for NE Neb, NW Iowa S. Minn and Wisc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Can this trash winter just end? 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 I'm looking forward to the clipper parade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Can this trash winter just end?But I'm really enjoying my iceboarding, slushboarding, and snowmobile on a trailer! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nice. NWS forecast has 100% chance snow with 1-3” forecast for tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 NAM coming in a little juicier with snow tomorrow for NE Neb, NW Iowa S. Minn and Wisc.Ah, a good ole Norfolk and not Southeast Nebraska special. Everything is back to normal I see. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 GFS gives me a bunch of snow next weekend then instantly melts it all away with rain. Lol. At least Euro just gives me all rain followed by 1.5" of clipper snow shortly after. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 11, 2020 Report Share Posted January 11, 2020 GFS seems to have proved it's worth lately, I sure hope it continues because the Euro is a whole lot of nothing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 It seems fitting I get missed to the north and east tomorrow since I missed in the other direction with the last storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Nam sucked bad real bad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wonder if we can score an advisory here in IA tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 HRRR w 1/2” and NAM with 1” for me tomorrow. Looks like the one inch or less run continues for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 From the KLOT met within the last day. Seems supportive of Tom's call of bolder with the colder as we head into the 2nd half of Jan 00z EPS (ECMWF ensemble) has continued theme of last few days of going to a very cold pattern look out in the day 10-15. MJO is at a very high amplitude phase 4 crossing into 5, warm phases for the winter explaining the very pronounced east/southeast ridge currently.According to information posted on other subs by Don S, this progression has historically supported the MJO wave keeping enough amplitude to progress into the colder phases. Assuming this holds, the idea of a sustained colder pattern unfolding later in January and beyond holds merit. The GEFS has also basically gone over to the EPS idea out in the extended.I still think our best chance for a more significant spread the wealth type of event would be prior to the pattern going in the direction of the EPS, if it's on the right track. Thereafter, the exact position and orientation of mean western and Alaskan ridging and downstream trough over will determine whether we go to a very cold and dry clipper type pattern (ex. Feb 2015 after GHD II) or a more active but just as cold pattern (ex. January-February 2014). 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Next week starts getting colder by midweek. Could be very cold the week after. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The Friday storm is now much warmer on the GFS and brings rain to Iowa as opposed to the heavy snow it has been showing for several runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The Friday storm is now much warmer on the GFS and brings rain to Iowa as opposed to the heavy snow it has been showing for several runs. Lol... now that Southeast Nebraska is getting a decent amount of moisture it's showing rain/ice Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 0Z GFS is wet and not white. Geez! Still, long way to go. Wonder why its seeing this as a rainer. Hopefully, Wednesday's system is not weak. Should affect the weekend storm a little colder I would imagine. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The Friday storm is now much warmer on the GFS and brings rain to Iowa as opposed to the heavy snow it has been showing for several runs.Yeah. Not liking the trends with it. Probably going to end up being a Dakota crusher when it's all said and done but loads of time for things to change. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The GFS has a 1047mb high pressure over Iowa next Sunday-Monday with highs anywhere between 5 above and 10 below zero, and lows anywhere between 0 and 10 below. A return of the polar vortex? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Tomorrow night event might be better for some of us than this current storm that's winding down. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The GFS has a 1047mb high pressure over Iowa next Sunday-Monday with highs anywhere between 5 above and 10 below zero, and lows anywhere between 0 and 10 below. A return of the polar vortex?Would be nice but GFS is a mess from wed and beyond. I will say though that it's been good at sniffing out systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 0Z GEM is all snow 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Is it May yet? I’m thinking that many, if not all, of the upcoming slew of storms are misses to our NW. makes sense with MJO phases 5-6 pumping that SER. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 00z gfs showing nasty ice event here I'll take a pass on that. Edit: and the cmc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern. I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north. There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario. This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up. 00z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I’m so hungover. That storm was cool for like 2 hours but it wasn’t really anything to brag about, by any means. I know it’s January, but I’m going to be in Houston Texas for all of February, so I hope I can snag some severe wx while I’m down there and hopefully come back to Chicago and all of you guys under a foot of snow! I think we all deserve it this year 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS is garbage. the snow maps are a joke. It gave me 10 inches for this storm. we got 0. GFS is trash. Pretty sure it’s broken. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern. I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north. There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario. This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up. 00z GEFS... EURO has the storm? it looks pretty warm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think it was Acculess weather that tried (started) naming winter storms. Well I have a great name for the 1st winter storms of 2020. Winter Storm Not!! Here at Grand Rapids Winter Storm Not! dropped a record 2.02" of rain there was some ice but mostly on trees and cars ect the roads were for the most part just wet. The roads did get some sleet and ice on them after dark. The total amount of sleet and snow was 0.4" The high during the event was 48 and the low was 24. At this time I have less than a half inch of ice, sleet and snow on the ground. Needless to say Winter Storm Not! will soon be forgotten. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 20 here at my house 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS is garbage. the snow maps are a joke. It gave me 10 inches for this storm. we got 0. GFS is trash. Pretty sure it’s broken.So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 EURO has the storm? it looks pretty warmThe EPS snow mean looks similar to the GEFS ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks like a Rainer Fri here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks like couple 1-3/2-3 type systems followed by a potential big one next week Friday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event.Not just this storm. Gfs has been painting a glacier for quite some time. Only to turn warmer in the near future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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