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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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I’m so hungover. That storm was cool for like 2 hours but it wasn’t really anything to brag about, by any means. I know it’s January, but I’m going to be in Houston Texas for all of February, so I hope I can snag some severe wx while I’m down there and hopefully come back to Chicago and all of you guys under a foot of snow! I think we all deserve it this year

Good luck with the storms down here ere.

It's been a dry winter except for this one recent front that had a nice squall line.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Currently it is 22F under mostly cloudy skies w a few flurries flying around.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well one things for sure models are having one hell of time with storms this year. It sees them but then they change constantly. Next week's storm looking like a major icing event.

Yep, slopfest continues. :lol: But, its still a couple of days away. Let the fun begin. ;) 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern.  I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north.  There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario.  This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

 

Based on this winter's track record, I will go with #4, 5, 7 or 19 being most likely for snow distribution. The most northerly solutions basically. Warmth wins this year. Those amounts always seem overly zealous so I'd suppose we could trim them a bit. I'll be honest and say after yesterday I'm squarely back to skepticism mode. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:rolleyes:  Awfly bold for an office that just face-planted:

 

2020012 10 am KRMY gridcast.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:rolleyes:  Awfly bold for an office that just face-planted:

 

attachicon.gif2020012 10 am KRMY gridcast.PNG

Neva thought I'd see a forecast for us like that this Winter........ :o :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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^^^ we just saw what/how they go wrong  :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For my area, I'm just expecting an inch or two of snow followed by mix and maybe even a bit of rain at the end of the week.  The bigger snow should be well north

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Neva thought I'd see a forecast for us like that this Winter........ :o :wacko:

 

We shouldn't be seeing that ofc, especially from this range!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOLz at 12z GFS already trolling mby 

 

2020012 12z GFS Snow Troll-job.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We shouldn't be seeing that ofc, especially from this range!

I know right, kinda looks like a teaser tbh.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@St Paul Storm, how you looking today? Advisory close to ya

Nah, we won’t get advisory level snows here. Better forcing in S MN. Looks like a 1-2” refresher here. You should get about the same or maybe a bit more no?

 

Edit: I didn’t even realize the advisory was just south of here. Whoops. Still looks like 1-2”. Current radar looking like what the models are showing. That’s a positive sign.

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Nah, we won’t get advisory level snows here. Better forcing in S MN. Looks like a 1-2” refresher here. You should get about the same or maybe a bit more no?

 

Edit: I didn’t even realize the advisory was just south of here. Whoops. Still looks like 1-2”. Current radar looking like what the models are showing. That’s a positive sign.

DMX has 2-3" for me but holding off on advisory

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12z Euro is colder with a farther-south low track.  My area doesn't get into the rain this run.... snow to mix.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I think Tom’s idea back in Nov. of a crazy winter with the potential of epic runs of winter was right on track, the one thing that has messed this up is the cold. It just won’t lock into place!

 

Look at Thanksgiving week, several more storms in Dec. and then of course, our most recent storm. Just imagine cold air in place? It would have been epic!

 

Here in KC, it’s been crazy warm the last 8 weeks, but, I have scored two big winter storms wrt snow removal services. So, I have caught lighting in a bottle in what is an overall warm winter so far.

 

Another big storm due in late this week that may very well have the same problem, cold weather in place. We’ll see as there is cold air in the pattern, maybe the latest GFS is on to something.

 

There are signs of a back loaded winter with storms and cold, let’s see what happens.

 

 

 

Total of 1.51 inches of rain, . 3/10’s ice coating, half inch of sleet and then 2-3 inches of snow at my place in KC. What a storm!!!

 

Go Chiefs!

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whats the timing on it compared to GFS?

 

GFS is about 6 hours ahead of the Euro.  GFS has heavy snow into Cedar Rapids early morning Friday while the Euro is mid morning.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking into the future, it's starting to look like a longer-term reoccurring ridge is going to try to flare back over Oklahoma and TX. This should once again keep Andie and I on the warm side of things with exception of what looks to be a cool-down next weekend or shortly thereafter. The northern tier looks to get wintry the next 6-10 days.

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I'm thinking more like 1" down here in the CR/IC area today.  Recent HRRR runs are focusing the best snow farther nw where 2-3" could fall.  The HRRR only has a 2-hour band of snow moving through this area.  It's a thicker, longer-lasting band up by Waterloo and Mason City.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_21.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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**** see my post in yesterday's storm thd, the dead thd, lol ****

 

Due to the parallel winter proposition, I've decided this one will have legs here for mby, since last Jan 17-18 was my first real storm of 2019. This one's coming in right on target..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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