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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Dense fog this morning.

 

46*. Low 37*

Yesterday with the wind chill and light rain was very cold to be out in.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The way things are going, KC may make it through this winter without any sub-zero readings. I know that hasn't happened in the last 5 years (even in the years with hardly any snow). I don't know when the last time that's happened, but it's pretty rare.

Similarly, Toledo Express recorded its coldest temp all the way back in November at 8°F. If that holds, I'm sure it'll smash a record for highest minimum temp.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Well, it looks like things get quiet and "mild" for Sunday through the middle of next week.  Disappointing.  Let's see what February brings I guess. 

This Winter has been a joke so far.

 

 

But, I think February will be snowier and colder.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clouds are lowering and thickening under fairly seasonable temps. At 32F w spotty light flurries from time to time. Snowpack is holding firm. So nice to have such a lovely wintry scenery out there. Hopefully, the cold rain tomorrow wont melt it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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High today of 55*. Low tonight 38*. Clear

Next 2 days highs ~62* clear

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Very impressive run tonight off the Euro Weeklies...all I'm saying is, if you were to believe the Euro, winter ain't ova and it is likely to end with a Big Bang!  My goodness, a dream pattern with brutal arctic air infiltrating the pattern along with a SE ridge creates a massive battle zone from TX up into the Apps/OHV.  Probably the BEST signal for big snows across the Heartland/GL's.  The STJ looks to ramp up in Feb and never let go all month long into early March.  Big time active pattern along with blocking in all the right places for our Sub to be in the heart of the action.

 

Once we get into early Feb, the EPO drops off its near record highs and into a more favorable pattern along with a -PNA pattern.  The snow map below is starting from Jan 28th thru Feb 7th.

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Kind of an odd statement for someone who have 25 inches of snow on the season. Good thing you don't live in NYC or Boston

Odd statement? I wouldn't call this an odd statement.  Keep in mind, I live 45-50min north of Detroit, so I receive more snow. Go back to the thread where it reads "Snowfall Totals and you will see my number. Its higher than Detroit's current 18" or so (not sure exactly accurately...maybe I can look it up if I have time).

 

December no snowfall (very little) and above normal temps each and everyday

January BN snowfall (so far)and above normal temps almost each and everyday

We will see what February and March brings...hopefully the good stuff

 

As far as the EC, they are having a nightmare this Winter. Forget about it. Boston was at 74F just days ago. A good friend of mine there told me recently that he was in shorts barbecuing that day. NYC hasn't seen a snowstorm yet. Boston is I believe somewhere at 11.7" or so. All cities on the EC from DC-BOS are way BN snowfall. So yes, not good being there this Winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom,

 

I sure hope the EURO weeklies have it figured out. Would love to see a some real cold with legit snow storms. All events in KC this year have occurred with temps 30-35. Been a warm winter but not lacking action just like your forecast called for.

 

Here’s too a big FEB. for all!

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Good morning and Happy Friday everyone! It's been a bit since I last posted. Been busy but I've been trying to keep up with at least visiting. I gotta say, typically I'm all for harsh winters with tons of snow and cold.  But in all honesty, I am REALLY enjoying this winter. Not too cold. Just the right amount of snowfalls to refreshen the look of the snow after a few days (for a bit there we hardly received any snow and with three dogs, we needed it :P) Tomorrow we're going to be in an ice fishing tournament, it'll be 34 degrees, no wind. Couldn't ask for a better day out on the lake! Hoping February and March turns around for those of you who want snow! Typically these next couple months seem to the be the snowiest for us around here, so we'll just have to wait and see :)

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Here is where Grand Rapids stands so far this January and winter season. For January the mean temperature is now at 30.6 at this time that is good for the 7th warmest January in recorded history at GR. For snow fall January is now at 11.4" Since December 1st there has only been 25.7" of snow fall and for the season the total is just at 32.5" at this time we are on track for the least amount of snow fall since the wither of 1986/87 when just 47.6" of snow fell. One side note on that is the in 1986 the level of the great Lakes was very high just like this year.

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GFS has a superstorm somewhere at the end of every run.  

 

Ikr? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Niko- Check out the 12z GFS...GHD III in the making?!?!

 

Then followed by 2 impressive arctic blasts. Maybe, just maybe this one sticks around...

 

:lol: Verbatim, would be strongest since '78, so we can just consider it another "easy toss" from the (GreatFantasyStorms) model like Stacsh said.

 

 20200124 12z_GFS Surf_h216.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good morning and Happy Friday everyone! It's been a bit since I last posted. Been busy but I've been trying to keep up with at least visiting. I gotta say, typically I'm all for harsh winters with tons of snow and cold.  But in all honesty, I am REALLY enjoying this winter. Not too cold. Just the right amount of snowfalls to refreshen the look of the snow after a few days (for a bit there we hardly received any snow and with three dogs, we needed it :P) Tomorrow we're going to be in an ice fishing tournament, it'll be 34 degrees, no wind. Couldn't ask for a better day out on the lake! Hoping February and March turns around for those of you who want snow! Typically these next couple months seem to the be the snowiest for us around here, so we'll just have to wait and see :)

Are you talking about the Brainerd Jaycees Ice Fishing Extravaganza?

I went to that one year.  It was quite the experience, about 0 degrees, high winds and hardly a flake of snow on the lake made walking around difficult.

I think you will have a much more relaxing time tomorrow where ever you are going than I had that day.  

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This post will relate to the comment I made a few days back, "Remember what happened in Antarctica", when a major late season SSW event took place over that continent back in Sept.  Is something brewing up for the Northern Hemisphere late in our Winter???  Over the last week, I've been paying attn to the modeling and the possible clues to what may be transpiring over the Pole.  The Euro/GEFS/GEPS are all suggesting a rather significant late season SSW event to take place that will undoubtedly perturb the Polar Vortex.  I believe a K-1 Displacement is in the cards.  How will this effect our wx down the road???

 

Take a look at the reversal of 10mb temps off today's 12z GEFS at Hr 84, Hr 204 and then Hr 360.  In seasons past, these type of late season warming events typically produce severe winter that causes a back-loaded winter.  The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies have steadily gotten colder.  There is more blocking showing up near Greenland as we open Feb (I posted 10mb maps of why I thought this would begin showing up in the modeling).  Take a look at the 10mb animation off of today's 12z GEFS from Day 7-15...something big is brewing up in the Strat and this may be the missing piece to the puzzle I've been waiting for to happen this winter.

 

Not only is the Strat potentially going into a favorable state, but as some on here mentioned, the MJO is heading into Phase 6 in a rather weak amplitude, and ending up going back into the "null" phase and may end up (if the GEFS are right) heading into Phase 2/3 which are COLD phases in Feb and March.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

I have been pondering about these ideas over the course of this past week and decided to post on it today.  Hopefully we start to see more evidence of a legit pattern flip by this time next week as we close the books on January.

 

 

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:lol: Verbatim, would be strongest since '78, so we can just consider it another "easy toss" from the (GreatFantasyStorms) model like Stacsh said.

 

20200124 12z_GFS Surf_h216.png

Well of course the odds of it playing out verbatim are slim to none....but as has been mentioned several times this season, the GFS has sniffed out most if not all the biggies at long range.

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Are you talking about the Brainerd Jaycees Ice Fishing Extravaganza?

I went to that one year.  It was quite the experience, about 0 degrees, high winds and hardly a flake of snow on the lake made walking around difficult.

I think you will have a much more relaxing time tomorrow where ever you are going than I had that day.  

 

Nope, we'll be down towards Hastings tomorrow.  It will be a smaller ice fishing contest. We have a buddy heading up to the Brainerd Jaycees right now!  It will definitely be a better year for those attending this year compared to last.  We were supposed to go last year but something came up.  And I'm glad we didn't because it would have been just ruthless out there not having a shack or anything to get out of that wind, especially on a lake.  It's a whole different world out on a lake when it comes to winds and temperatures!

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Well of course the odds of it playing out verbatim are slim to none....but as has been mentioned several times this season, the GFS has sniffed out most if not all the biggies at long range.

 

To be fair, most models have a decent system in the same time frame next weekend.  However, some phase, some don't.  Looks like a lot of moving pieces that the perfect conditions would have to come together.  Either way, something to track because Michigan has been bit by the water bug this weekend and next week looks boring and AN.  

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I know it is mid winter but Accuweather has issued its first spring long range guess. At this time I am not impressed. But here it is.
March…. Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – Winter conditions can linger into March with a couple of big storms. We expect a colder-than-normal March, but coldest air holds back toward Midwest; ski areas that have suffered through mild and wet early to midwinter may benefit from extended winter season. But an active pattern no doubt, whether rain or snow, can lead to soft, muddy fields by April and possible minor delays working in the fields (moderate confidence).
April……Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – April 2019 was wet, but still quite mild in the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. It should be drier Northeast this April, but highest temperatures may be farther west into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Northern New England snowpack may linger early and keep temperatures down in northern New England (moderate confidence).
May…..Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – Not nearly as warm as the second half of May 2019. Despite a downturn in temperatures, severe weather will try to match 2019 events. It should be active with near- to above-normal precipitation holding back prolonged warm periods (moderate confidence).
Note their winter long range guess did not play out at all so we will see how this spring long range guess plays out.

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Gotta love the cyclical nature of our weather. Here is Fairbanks.

 

Today
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near -8. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -14. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -10. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -29. Wind chill values as low as -45. North wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -21. North wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around -31.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of snow before 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -24.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -32.
Tuesday
A slight chance of snow after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -21.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -30.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -16.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -25.
Thursday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -17.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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