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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Terry Swails has a blog post about the 1967 late January tornadoes and blizzard.

 

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2020/01/28/GOAT-THE-GREATEST-48-HRS-OF-WEATHER-ALL-TIME

 

A key to the almost perfect results for Chicago/SMI was the placement of the HP

 

 

 

Dew points in the 50s to lower 60s over the southern plains and Gulf Coast states fed the storm with ample moisture while the Canadian high pressure, now centered over Lake Superior and southern Ontario, kept cold dry air pouring into the Great Lakes. The strong pressure gradient between the high over the upper Lakes and the deepening low over the Ohio Valley caused winds to howl off Lake Michigan. This produced severe blowing and drifting of snow as well as causing lake effect enhancement of the snowfall.

 

Almost every storm these days has a "mis-placed" center of HP allowing for all sorts of poor outcomes around here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DVN talking 1-3" of snow Wed-Thu?  I'm not seeing anything on the models to support this.  Even the most bullish I've looked at show an inch tops.

 

 

*Widespread light snow expected from Wednesday into Thursday
leading to slippery travel. The bulk of this first round of snow
is anticipated to fall from Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning.

Snow Potential:

Model blend QPF of 0.25" to 0.05" from west to east through the
CWA was used along with low SLRs near 10:1 due to max omega
located below the DGZ. This produces about a 1 to 3 inch snowfall.
The highest amounts are expected west of the Mississippi River.
Raw model guidance and GEFS plumes show potential for a little
more QPF with this first round than is currently forecast, but
that probably wouldn`t change snowfall amounts too much because it
will be a wetter snow.

The good news is temperatures should be near freezing on Wednesday
and only drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday night,
limiting impacts on treated roads. Although slippery stretches
can still be expected with the worst conditions on secondary
roads.

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Finally below freezing and we may actually freeze things a bit overnight if the low of 22F is realized. Last night's low of 26F was an utter FAIL. Briefly hit 31F after 7am. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A day or two ago it looked like up to an inch of snow was possible around here Wednesday, but models have mostly dropped it.  The disturbance is expected to get to central Iowa and then crap out.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some very impressive snowfall totals in SW KS/NW OK from the system down south.  I'm seeing some localized reports of 10-15"!  Liberal, KS with a lolipop 15" total!  The TX Panhandle region didn't do to bad as well with a general 4-6" and a localized 10" report in Turpin, OK.

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Some very impressive snowfall totals in SW KS/NW OK from the system down south.  I'm seeing some localized reports of 10-15"!  Liberal, KS with a lolipop 15" total!  The TX Panhandle region didn't do to bad as well with a general 4-6" and a localized 10" report in Turpin, OK.

Good to see the big totals out that way, that area needed some moisture.

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27 degrees and snowing in KC. A beautiful winter’s morning.

 

Likely end up around an inch, enough to coat everything.

 

GFS likes KC next week, 65-70 on Sunday and then 20 degrees and snowing Tuesday. Perfect!

 

Come on Chiefs! Big party in KC on Sunday

Noway we get that warm on Sunday but it should be nice while we celebrate the Chiefs!

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Still no cold air to be found in my extended. I.E., No 20s for highs (not once), but cold enough to snow. Wow. Each and everytime, seems like the cold gets pushed away. Models see a frigid airmass. Then, they tend to erase off the forecast in a day or 2. Crazy! Hopefully, that PV can split!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I cant remember when the last time was when I saw some sunshine around here. Geez!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's crazy.  Even here in WMI where it is usually cloudy.  I've been between 30-36 degrees for 5 straight days and nights.  

Same here. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s and even some 30s at nite. Wacky Winter pattern!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's crazy.  Even here in WMI where it is usually cloudy.  I've been between 30-36 degrees for 5 straight days and nights.  

 

Back in Dec of '92 when I lived in Traverse, we had measurable snow all (31) days of the month. Obviously not much if any sunshine happened. During the 90s up in NWMI it was not uncommon to go 2+ months seeing very little sun between mid-Nov and end of Jan. Feb would turn a corner to more "risk" of sunshine, lol. Unlike down here and the current mess, up there it was cloudy AND very snowy. It rarely bothered me because I had snowmobiles and was looking for as much snow as possible. Also, the constant snow fall meant a beautiful fresh look of deep winter for days on end, not the gray/brown/dirty look we get downstate. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With just 3 day to go, January 2020 now has a mean tempera at Grand Rapids of 31.3° That is +6.9 and at this time this is the 6th warmest January of record. At Muskegon they have a mean of 32.0 that is +6.5 and is now the 5 warmest January of record there. And at Lansing the mean in 30.2 that is + 6.7 and Lansing is now at the 10th warmest January of record. So while there has been little snow the temperatures are the true big story this January and for this winter season. So while not a record setting it will be a top 10 warmest (for January)
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Cloudy, 40's, Damp,...yeckkkk.

 

Gives my depression a depression.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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My extended looks very active. Finally! Hope it doesn't change.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Scored a surprise 32F (or below) January day here at KRMY. Only my 8th of this month. Slush-cone snowcover has been incredibly durable and thus the streak has made it to day 12 by some miracle. I don't consider a "T" as equal to a snow cover day like the major reporting sites do. I consider a day (or partial day such as morning) of snow cover to be any day I see more snow than grass fwiw. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With just 3 day to go, January 2020 now has a mean tempera at Grand Rapids of 31.3° That is +6.9 and at this time this is the 6th warmest January of record. At Muskegon they have a mean of 32.0 that is +6.5 and is now the 5 warmest January of record there. And at Lansing the mean in 30.2 that is + 6.7 and Lansing is now at the 10th warmest January of record. So while there has been little snow the temperatures are the true big story this January and for this winter season. So while not a record setting it will be a top 10 warmest (for January)

 

 

Fun fact! Cincinnati Ohio had their largest snowstorm in recorded history during a January that averaged 5F above normal. Which proves the old adage "it's all about timing"  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At Tom

 

Rumor has it you're getting brushed by a Meso low band?? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At Tom

 

Rumor has it you're getting brushed by a Meso low band?? 

I checked the radar loop and there was indeed a meso low off shore but it was rather weak.  Prob just flurries/snow showers for those closer to the shore.  Nothing in my back yard.

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Actually spending some time BELOW freezing around SCMI. 29F attm and been sub-30F since 10 pm last night. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41*. Heavy Overcast. No rain expected.

High of 44* today.

 

Just Grim Central

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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23F and 100% overcast. Northland09 posted about the cloudiness in a post yesterday. This marks the 9th consecutive day of 0% sunshine. The all-time record is 15 days. I’m just thankful there’s a decent snowpack otg. Otherwise this would be the absolute worst. A quote from the movie Groundhog Day sums it up nicely: “ It's going to be cold, it's going to be dark and it's going to last you for the rest of your lives..”

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^^^  :lol: @ GHD quote

 

SUNNY here in Jackson attm!  :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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