January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

Wow, that's pretty far nw.

Ya the ensembles have been for several days now.  I look for the Euro to zero in on this storm in the next day or so.

[Niko]

Cold is there, just stays south of it.

 

 

ICON begs to differ!

 

 

LOL @ 12z ICON. Gives SMI the single-finger-salute as it trucks on by keeping ALL precip just south of the 540 thickness line. Not saying it's got it correct from this range, but it is very indicative of a pattern that just does NOT want to yield any good snow storms through this region.

 

20200106 12z icon h114 MFM.png

 

 

 

  Saturday will be 2 full months since Vet's Day with zero snowstorms trekking through here. I think that we've given it PLENTY of time, lol. Actually, if it wasn't for all the models flashing sh*t that never happens, I'd be ok (or at least better) with where this winter stands at the moment. The non-stop carrot dangling is extremely annoying. Could deal with 50% maybe not working out in the end, but that ratio would be light years ahead of where we are now bud. 

I know. It can be nerve wrecking, but this pattern has to break eventually. I hope!

[Madtown]

snow globe 2 in Lambeau Sunday?

[Niko]

I wouldn't say its weak, in fact, its showing an appreciable snow storm all the way back into most of KS/N MO/IL/IN.  Most, if not all, of the precip back in KS is snow from KC on north into MO including N IL.  Parts of S MI/N IN are rain to snow.

Yep, lots of it too. Its a good sign that a pattern change is coming. The following week also looks very active (wintry) and some "Arctic Air" beginning to arrive.

[bud2380]

6Z Euro shifted way NW according to the map Clinton showed, let's see if the 12z follows suit.  Out to 66 hours.  Hard to tell right now when this storm begins as it seems to come in waves.  The first wave may be more of a rain maker and the second one could be the snowstorm, we shall see.  

[bud2380]

12z Euro looks a lot like the 6z.  But again this is an extremely narrow band.  There may be a 2nd wave beyond this one yet.

 

[bud2380]

2nd wave much stronger and further south. Blasts MO, looks like it will head into IL, IN and MI

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro looking strong, I really hope this finds a way to come NW further.  Looks like a narrow miss in Eastern Iowa this run.  

[Stacsh]

Well, the Euro is currently perfect for a snowstorm here, so that sucks, because it will obviously change.  Trend is nice though.  

[Hawkeye]

Two-wave scenario

 

[Clinton]

12Z Euro

[Tom]

Well, the Euro is currently perfect for a snowstorm here, so that sucks, because it will obviously change. Trend is nice though.

Says the ultimate pessimist in you...until you see it snowing in your back yard! That’s when I think you will realize this pattern has big potential.

[Stacsh]

Says the ultimate pessimist in you...until you see it snowing in your back yard! That’s when I think you will realize this pattern has big potential.

 

I've said we could get some decent storms. In fact this up and down pattern is much more favorable for it.   I'm just not sold on any sustained arctic intrusions this winter.  

[james1976]

I'll take the Euro. Both waves combined share the wealth pretty good.

[Tom]

I've said we could get some decent storms. In fact this up and down pattern is much more favorable for it. I'm just not sold on any sustained arctic intrusions this winter.

Ya, rain storms...lol

[Niko]

12Z Euro

[Niko]

Skies are so gorgeous outside, but a bit breezy. Temps are AN. At 43F.

[Niko]

The ECMWF Hi-Res hammers a lot of us, especially Jaster w a 1'+.

[Tom]

Late-week storm threat....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2150-0110-0111-plainslower-lakes-cutter/

[Tom]

Big changes per latest 12z EPS for Week 2...giddy up folks!  #WinterisComingBack

[Clinton]

Burr.

[Niko]

Video from Joe Bastardi:

 

https://youtu.be/7GmxNkDQntA

[Stormhunter87]

Coldest air of the season I'll take it

[james1976]

Gonna need snowcover for some of those numbers

[OmahaSnowFan]

Coldest air of the season I'll take it

Possible brown ground and subzero? Yuck!

At least with the no snowfall it's been warmish....

[jaster220]

Well, the Euro is currently perfect for a snowstorm here, so that sucks, because it will obviously change.  Trend is nice though.  

 

Didn't the Euro more or less cave on the last system. GEFS/GFS had it taking that northern route while the Euro was further south/weaker initially. 

 

Tom said:

 

Even though the GFS has its flaws, it has done a good job in the Day 5+ range of sniffing out a storm.  Just like the last system that hit the Plains/S MW/OHV region, the GFS/GEFS were the first to jump on the storm system.  Obliviously, track and intensity did not play out exactly but the model got the general idea of a storm threat.  IMO, it is doing the same thing and has sniffed out this storm potential and to see the Euro/EPS trending that way we have to give the American model some credit.  Inside Day 5, the King is money so eventually I'd put more stock into that model and the higher rez.

 

Just because the Euro is currently favorable, I think there's still plenty of room for skepticism as the King has not always led the way.    Not being negative on a storm happening, just the model wrestling at this time-frame

[Clinton]

Didn't the Euro more or less cave on the last system. GEFS/GFS had it taking that northern route while the Euro was further south/weaker initially. 

 

Tom said:

 

 

Just because the Euro is currently favorable, I think there's still plenty of room for skepticism as the King has not always led the way.    Not being negative on a storm happening, just the model wrestling at this time-frame

With that storm the Euro didn't show a storm or least not much of one, it's a little different.  However with the AO and NAO the way they are we still can't discount the ICON just yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
249 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020
 
...Dry and Mild Weather thru Thu but the End is in Sight for This
Extended Spell of Mild Temps as a Pattern Change Signals Colder
Times Ahead...
 
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020
 
Aloft: The ridge building along the W coast tonight will advance
E and crest over the Plns Wed morning. A shrtwv trof will follow
Thu morning. This trof will initiate a pattern change...with a
longwv trof dvlpg and becoming locked-in over the Wrn USA. The
flow over NEB/KS will remain from the SW thru Mon. A shrtwv trof
is fcst to eject out of the mean Wrn trof Fri night...and there
may be another 1 or 2 thereafter...but mdl disagreement within the
broad Wrn trof lowers confidence on timing.
 
Surface: A cold front was currently over Cntrl Can. This front
will move S and E. It will move into NEB/KS late Tue and stall
from NW-SE. Meanwhile...a cool front will move onshore in the W.
This front will cross the Wrn USA and advance acrs NEB/KS Wed
night. Low pres will form along this front and head acrs the
GtLks. This will yank truly cold air S into the Cntrl Plns
Fri...with strong high pres over the Nrn Plns. Return flow will
dvlp Sat-Sun as that high moves into the Ern USA. It appears the
next cold front could move thru next Mon.
 
Temps: Continued milder than normal thru Thu...then turning
colder beginning Fri. Fri-Sat will be colder than normal. Sun-Mon
are uncertain...but probably will trend back to near normal.
 
Cold Outlook: Believe this upcoming cold snap is just the
beginning. Since mid Nov we`ve had it pretty easy in the temp
department. Temps have averaged way above normal for the last 7
weeks...and temps typically swing back-and-forth on 30-60 day
cycles. So we are due for a big downturn that it likely to last a
while. All of the operational mdls and their ensemble means
(EC/GFS/Bias-corrected GFS/CMC/JMA - Japanese Met Agency) are
fcstg the PNA pattern turn strongly negative and remain negative
for the foreseeable future. A -PNA pattern has a deep Wrn USA trof
which favors colder temps here as the mean polar front becoming
stalled just S and E of the CWA. Some of this cold will be Arctic
in nature at times. Expect to eventually see a lot more daytime
highs below frzg.
 
Snow: we need to watch Fri and Fri night for accumulating snow
potential. There are a non-trivial number of EC and GFS ensemble
members that indicate a lgt-mod snowfall could occur. Some
operational EC runs have shown this potential over the last 3
days. However...there is no run-to-run consistency. It will all
depend on how the upr trof evolves...whether it wraps up and
strengthens...or it remains suppressed with the precip shield SE
of the CWA. Even if that occurs...some members are still
indicating a lgt snowfall with the Nrn stream part of the trof.
Stay tuned.

[snowstorm83]

Possible brown ground and subzero? Yuck!

At least with the no snowfall it's been warmish....

 

Subzero with no snow on the ground is rare but does happen. Worst recent example I see is -11 at LNK on 1/28/2014 with a snow depth of 0. Trace or 1" depth is a bit more common, and even happened last year. 

[Niko]

Brief arctic air arriving midweek. Highs in the low 20s and lows near 10F b4 it warms back up briefly.

[St Paul Storm]

Burr.

No way those numbers verify without fresh snow cover. Fun to look at though for sure.

[St Paul Storm]

Decent chance of our first subzero lows since mid-December tomorrow night. Might not quite get there in the metro but surrounding areas should have no issue.

[Thunder98]

The 6 to 10 day temp map is so crazy.

 

[Niko]

It will feel so nice on Friday w temps near 50F. Bottom falls after that.

[jaster220]

It will feel so nice on Friday w temps near 50F. Bottom falls after that.

 

I'm not sure I can agree with ya on that one buddy. 50F isn't really warm enough if you have any wind or moisture to feel truly warm. It's still in between temp for this guy. Better than bitter cold, true but we've not had that problem now have we?

[jaster220]

Found this little nugget from WPC's txt for the d8-14 (Jan 14-20th). I like that time slot tbh. GFS has occasionally shown a respectable storm around here.

 

A severe weather outbreak is probable across the lower Mississippi Valley during Week-2, based on an early spring-like airmass and the amplified trough upstream. However, large ensemble spread on timing precludes any designation of a severe weather hazard. There is also the risk of heavy snow on the northwest side of any surface low that tracks from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes. 

[Niko]

I'm not sure I can agree with ya on that one buddy. 50F isn't really warm enough if you have any wind or moisture to feel truly warm. It's still in between temp for this guy. Better than bitter cold, true but we've not had that problem now have we?

This time of the year, 50F is D**n warm enough for me. Keep in mind, that is almost 20 degrees AN. Even if it comes w rain or wind, I'll definitely want to be outside and enjoy it because you know it wont last.

[Tom]

Last night's Euro weeklies took a step towards my ideas of what I mentioned the other day, whereby, the pattern over the next several weeks may very well ignite one of the more "hyper active" periods of winter storms across the central Plains/MW/OHV/Lower Lakes that we have seen in years.  Unlike last year's lack luster snowy pattern across KS/MO/IA/IL/IN/S MI, this year's pattern has a TON more potential. I like what I'm seeing and by in large, a majority of the southern tier of our Sub that missed out on the major snow storms last Jan/Feb and into the merry month of March, IMHO, will reap the rewards of nature balancing things out.  The heavens are showing signs of alignment.

 

 

Over the last several runs, I've noticed the Euro weeklies are backing farther west/south with the snow mean across the central/southern Plains/MW once the arctic are begins to "press" and dominate the pattern post 10th.  The relaxation of the PNA/EPO are going to pay dividends.  I posted a map off the Euro Weeklies illustrating a much more favorable "cutter alley" across the southern tier of the Sub and extending into the OHV/GL's region.  Let's not forget, but before this period, there are several more winter storms that we will be tracking that will be laying down the foundation as the "Glacier Grows" and expands across our Sub.  The target dates that I mentioned before that have bigger potential to share the wealth after this weekends over the next 2 weeks are systems (I fine tuned the dates) between the 14th-16th, 17th-19th and 20th-22nd.  I gotta tell ya, this pattern is loaded and potentially explosive in the snow dept.  This could very well end up being a historic and memorable stretch of winter for many people that missed out on the snows last year.  On top of that, the Real deal arctic air is in the works and if there is snow OTG, record low temps are going to get smashed.  

[james1976]

How bout that baroclinic zone setting up on the GFS? Whoa

[james1976]

That storm train in the extended needs to verify. Could really make up for the lackluster winter so far. That one showing up on the 15th has me a bit intrigued.