January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[hlcater]

The 00z Euro brings temps well into the 50s back to northern Illinois in a week.

Which is a major change from previous runs and the rest of guidance.

[snowstorm83]

The 00z Euro brings temps well into the 50s back to northern Illinois in a week.

 

Looking at the model run to run changes, much of the midwest is 30-40 degrees warmer this run for next Wednesday/Thursday compared to 12z. Some places even as high as +50. Wow, that's just bad. 

[Grizzcoat]

The difference between the Euro and GFS in the 8-10 day range is crazy. Seems like we went through this a month ago. We all know what model (with the above normal temps and slow pattern) will win out. In a week, met winter is half over. Hard to believe since it's really never started here in C.IA.

[Hawkeye]

And the end of this Euro run has another large surge of warmth expanding north through the central/western US.  Hopefully, this is just a bad run.

[Tom]

And the end of this Euro run has another large surge of warmth expanding north through the central/western US.  Hopefully, this is just a bad run.

It's likely a bad run...I saw that the EPO popped (+) drastically in the d8 - d10 period...it's EPS forecast only shows a slightly (+) signal while all the other models show (-).

[Tom]

There's just so much going on in my life right now trying to juggle work/business, all awhile, tracking a major winter storm!  While its nice to be finally tracking storms and building excitement for #truewinter to finally arrive, the lack of sleep may need to be overcome by taking some midday napski's!  You know, the greatest of minds in the past and present suggest taking naps during the day as it revitalizes the brain and allows you to focus more. 

 

Alight, alright, alright....golly, all the data is point towards a Fierce Flip in the pattern and one that is certainly going to start delivering in the Snow Dept.  The trends in the GEFS continue to show one heckova pattern setting up across our Sub with plenty of systems to track over the coming days.  As I've said before, this pattern is loaded with potential for many of us to share in the wealth. With that being said, this is prob the most wintry looking GEFS maps of the season.

 

 

 

Last night's JMA weeklies have backed off the Torch look in the extended and agreeing with the CFSv2/Euro weeklies which show a more favorable MJO and a weakening of the SER.  All the models are in agreement that Week 2 the cold begins to invade the CONUS and "press" while the NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge grows and "fights" the SER.  This is a pattern we saw last year, however, the battle zone is setting up show farther S/SE this year.  Unlike last year, we will have the blocking in the right places and then a subsiding SER that will allow the storm track to become more or less west/east with some signs of cutting up the OHV/Apps later in the month when I'm expecting to see some powerful winter storms.  

 

Folks, we are on the verge of witnessing a Historic stretch of winter for the central/northern part of our Sub, initially, before the pattern turns ridiculously cold and snowy that has legs my friends.

 

Take a look at the JMA weeklies maps below and you will notice why I'm fired up about the aforementioned statements above....

 

 

Week 2...

 

Temps...'dat temp gradient

 

 

Precip...notice also the convection is shifting farther east towards NE of Australia/Central PAC

 

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp...North America is in the Freezer

 

 

Precip....wet/active is the theme over the next several weeks...

 

 

 

[Tom]

The vision I have is being depicted off the CFSv2 for the later parts of January...AN precip for the southern/eastern half of our Sub along with BN temps...all things considered, it's nice to see the models lining things up....

 

[Tom]

Don't look now Jaster,but the CFSv2 is loving our region throughout this month....#buildtheglacier

 

 

[Clinton]

Don't look now Jaster,but the CFSv2 is loving our region throughout this month....#buildtheglacier

 

 

Now that is beautiful!

[james1976]

FWIW the GFS & Euro are in good agreement with a clipper moving across IA late Sunday with light amounts.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like a possible stretch of snow up this way Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with 3 separate small systems. I’d take it.

[Minny_Weather]

Calm before the January..... rain storm this morning. 23.0*F with a sharp rise in temp expected throughout the day. Pretty good chance of our high temp happening at 11:59 tonight.

[james1976]

NAM has the clipper too for Sunday

[OKwx2k4]

Some pretty ludicrous GFS runs for us southern folk the last few runs. I guess this really could be like the winter of 2010 after all. All of it happened after January 1 down here, but it was impressive from January to March.

 

I think I remember saying this back in October when the first round of this happened but what a massive change in a couple of days!

[Hawkeye]

Wow, it is already 50º here at 10am!  Yesterday at this time it was in the mid teens.

[OKwx2k4]

Don't look now Jaster,but the CFSv2 is loving our region throughout this month....#buildtheglacier

 

 

I pray that the CFS is 2-3° too warm in that map.

 

Edit: In it's temps overall. It would make for a huge increase in snowfall for all of us and it usually runs warm.

[OKwx2k4]

Wow, it is already 50º here at 10am! Yesterday at this time it was in the mid teens.

I sweated in the humidity last night at work blowing up ahead of this thing.

 

Definitely know there's some radical weather coming in today and for the next few.

[westMJim]

While we wait to see what if much happens this weekend at this time it is cloudy and 32 here with just a trace of snow on the ground.

[Andie]

Looks like spring! >_

 

"A strong storm system approaching the area will bring gusty winds and rain to North Texas in the coming days. As the cold front associated with this storm moves through Friday, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

 

Conditions will be favorable for all modes of severe weather Friday. Large hail and winds over 60 mph will be the primary threats. Tornadoes will also be possible both in storms that develop ahead of the main line and in the squall line itself."

 

Flash flooding is a risk Friday afternoon and evening. High of 70*

NBC

 

[jaster220]

Don't look now Jaster,but the CFSv2 is loving our region throughout this month....#buildtheglacier

 

 

 

 

Now that is beautiful!

 

Don't mean to be cynical or a "buzz-kill", but I could post a dozen maps from this winter and last (including an extra-LR CFS map like this from late Nov??) that showed deep snow for mby. I'm exhausted from shoveling all this LR model snow! I'm also exhausted from the constant let-downs. If I was in a relationship getting treated like this, I'd long since broke it off  . I have zero, and I mean ZERO confidence any of the latest hype will pan out for mby. It will find creative ways to NOT deliver.

 

Just keepin' it real - no fluff

[Mi_Matthew]

Don't mean to be cynical or a "buzz-kill", but I could post a dozen maps from this winter and last (including an extra-LR CFS map like this from late Nov??) that showed deep snow for mby. I'm exhausted from shoveling all this LR model snow! I'm also exhausted from the constant let-downs. If I was in a relationship getting treated like this, I'd long since broke it off . I have zero, and I mean ZERO confidence any of the latest hype will pan out for mby. It will find creative ways to NOT deliver.

 

Just keepin' it real - no fluff

Well said. A good analogy is the Detroit Lions, especially the "creative ways to NOT deliver."

 

My relationship with the Lions ended many years ago but I still cannot shake model hype!!! Even after being abused time and time again.

 

Maybe if winter 2013/14 never happened I'd have an entirely different perspective.

[Minny_Weather]

Well said. A good analogy is the Detroit Lions, especially the "creative ways to NOT deliver."

 

My relationship with the Lions ended many years ago but I still cannot shake model hype!!! Even after being abused time and time again.

 

Maybe if winter 2013/14 never happened I'd have an entirely different perspective.

That's me with Nebraska football! Except I'm still, sadly, a fan.

[Hawkeye]

Man, temps are soaring in Iowa today, even with thick clouds.  It's 55º here and near 60º over the southern third of the state.

[james1976]

Just hit 50. January 9th

[Madtown]

got to 47 here

[Iowawx]

Models continue to show a small clipper system late Sunday Night that produces about 1-2 inches of snow. 

[Hawkeye]

It appears we maxed out at 57º (And we're still at 57).

[Tom]

Who's going to post the latest snowfall maps off the 18z GFS run??  Ok, I will....#weeniealert...this pattern could really explode into something special...

 

 

[Madtown]

[GDR]

[Thunder98]

Big temperature differences between Cincinnati, OH and Lansing, MI despite being only 250 miles apart. The former has a forecast high of 70F on Saturday, while the latter is forecasted to be 36F.

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

Who's going to post the latest snowfall maps off the 18z GFS run?? Ok, I will....#weeniealert...this pattern could really explode into something special...

Fingers crossed for this!

[SE Wisconsin]

Who's going to post the latest snowfall maps off the 18z GFS run??  Ok, I will....#weeniealert...this pattern could really explode into something special...

After all my whining and complaining about December and early January, I'll have to eat crow if that verifies!  But crow might just taste mighty fine!

[Clinton]

Who's going to post the latest snowfall maps off the 18z GFS run??  Ok, I will....#weeniealert...this pattern could really explode into something special...

Wow I would be happy with half of that!

[Niko]

Temps have really warmed up. Temps are already in the 40s. Its a very mild evening outside. Light showers on and off.

 

Next week turns much colder w some snow chances.

[Niko]

Temp already at 46F w a strong South wind at 23mph. Dang! Its so mild for this time of the year.

[jaster220]

Temp already at 46F w a strong South wind at 23mph. Dang! Its so mild for this time of the year.

 

Yo-Yo winter. Last night my furnace hardly shut off.  Tonight? I haven't heard it come on once 

[Money]

0z gfs continues with an active pattern going forward with two decent systems for the sub in the 120-192 range

[jaster220]

Just cuz it's the craziest snow map ever seen for the Mitt:

 

 

 

We know the first round that's included in this will be a major FAIL wrt mix contamination. How do we know they all won't be the same? 

 

 

[jaster220]

0z gfs continues with an active pattern going forward with two decent systems for the sub in the 120-192 range

 

Yby again?