Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Also, with respect to the last system, I made a statement that I would donate to a charity if I got hit good (6"+ or 10"+).  I posted in the storm thread, but didn't ever receive a response from anyon

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look wher

Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics -

Posted Images

Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern.  I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north.  There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario.  This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m so hungover. That storm was cool for like 2 hours but it wasn’t really anything to brag about, by any means. I know it’s January, but I’m going to be in Houston Texas for all of February, so I hope I can snag some severe wx while I’m down there and hopefully come back to Chicago and all of you guys under a foot of snow! I think we all deserve it this year

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern. I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north. There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario. This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

EURO has the storm? it looks pretty warm

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it was Acculess weather that tried (started) naming winter storms. Well I have a great name for the 1st winter storms of 2020. Winter Storm Not!! Here at Grand Rapids Winter Storm Not! dropped a record 2.02" of rain there was some ice but mostly on trees and cars ect the roads were for the most part just wet. The roads did get some sleet and ice on them after dark. The total amount of sleet and snow was 0.4" The high during the event was 48 and the low was 24. At this time I have less than a half inch of ice, sleet and snow on the ground. Needless to say Winter Storm Not! will soon be forgotten. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 20 here at my house

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is garbage. the snow maps are a joke. It gave me 10 inches for this storm. we got 0. GFS is trash. Pretty sure it’s broken.

So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So was every single other model...your point? Even the King was painting 4”+ in your area. Toss that one as well? All the models didn’t handle this last storm well. It was certainly a now cast event.

Not just this storm. Gfs has been painting a glacier for quite some time. Only to turn warmer in the near future.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m so hungover. That storm was cool for like 2 hours but it wasn’t really anything to brag about, by any means. I know it’s January, but I’m going to be in Houston Texas for all of February, so I hope I can snag some severe wx while I’m down there and hopefully come back to Chicago and all of you guys under a foot of snow! I think we all deserve it this year

Good luck with the storms down here ere.

It's been a dry winter except for this one recent front that had a nice squall line.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well one things for sure models are having one hell of time with storms this year. It sees them but then they change constantly. Next week's storm looking like a major icing event.

Yep, slopfest continues. :lol: But, its still a couple of days away. Let the fun begin. ;) 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest trends for the late week system are not looking friendly down here as that dang GOM ridge blossoms which has been a part of this pattern.  I recall posting and commenting about this ridge in Nov and Dec when it shunted storms to the north.  There is some blocking, however, that forms over the Archipelago/NE Canada regions during this period that may help "press" some colder air initially to provide a "thump" snow scenario to some of us before the SLP tracks over head and switches precip over to rain/snow mix scenario.  This storm is still 6-7 days away and will likely be thread worthy, but we can wait maybe another day or so to fire one up.

 

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_192.png

 

Based on this winter's track record, I will go with #4, 5, 7 or 19 being most likely for snow distribution. The most northerly solutions basically. Warmth wins this year. Those amounts always seem overly zealous so I'd suppose we could trim them a bit. I'll be honest and say after yesterday I'm squarely back to skepticism mode. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

:rolleyes:  Awfly bold for an office that just face-planted:

 

2020012 10 am KRMY gridcast.PNG

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

^^^ we just saw what/how they go wrong  :wacko:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

For my area, I'm just expecting an inch or two of snow followed by mix and maybe even a bit of rain at the end of the week.  The bigger snow should be well north

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Neva thought I'd see a forecast for us like that this Winter........ :o :wacko:

 

We shouldn't be seeing that ofc, especially from this range!

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

LOLz at 12z GFS already trolling mby 

 

2020012 12z GFS Snow Troll-job.PNG

  • Like 4

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs and icon both with that storm yet

Gfs 10-12+ across IA and MN/WI

Looking good. Best looking pattern in a while for sure. You’re in a good spot with the potential late week storm. Best stuff may shoot east of here. We’ll see.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

@St Paul Storm, how you looking today? Advisory close to ya

Nah, we won’t get advisory level snows here. Better forcing in S MN. Looks like a 1-2” refresher here. You should get about the same or maybe a bit more no?

 

Edit: I didn’t even realize the advisory was just south of here. Whoops. Still looks like 1-2”. Current radar looking like what the models are showing. That’s a positive sign.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah, we won’t get advisory level snows here. Better forcing in S MN. Looks like a 1-2” refresher here. You should get about the same or maybe a bit more no?

 

Edit: I didn’t even realize the advisory was just south of here. Whoops. Still looks like 1-2”. Current radar looking like what the models are showing. That’s a positive sign.

DMX has 2-3" for me but holding off on advisory

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro is colder with a farther-south low track.  My area doesn't get into the rain this run.... snow to mix.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro 24-hour snowfall... would be a pretty heavy front-end thump.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Tom’s idea back in Nov. of a crazy winter with the potential of epic runs of winter was right on track, the one thing that has messed this up is the cold. It just won’t lock into place!

 

Look at Thanksgiving week, several more storms in Dec. and then of course, our most recent storm. Just imagine cold air in place? It would have been epic!

 

Here in KC, it’s been crazy warm the last 8 weeks, but, I have scored two big winter storms wrt snow removal services. So, I have caught lighting in a bottle in what is an overall warm winter so far.

 

Another big storm due in late this week that may very well have the same problem, cold weather in place. We’ll see as there is cold air in the pattern, maybe the latest GFS is on to something.

 

There are signs of a back loaded winter with storms and cold, let’s see what happens.

 

 

 

Total of 1.51 inches of rain, . 3/10’s ice coating, half inch of sleet and then 2-3 inches of snow at my place in KC. What a storm!!!

 

Go Chiefs!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

whats the timing on it compared to GFS?

 

GFS is about 6 hours ahead of the Euro.  GFS has heavy snow into Cedar Rapids early morning Friday while the Euro is mid morning.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Radar looking pretty good for me today. Can anyone tell me how any of the short term models look for today?

Widespread 2-3” north of I-80.

2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking into the future, it's starting to look like a longer-term reoccurring ridge is going to try to flare back over Oklahoma and TX. This should once again keep Andie and I on the warm side of things with exception of what looks to be a cool-down next weekend or shortly thereafter. The northern tier looks to get wintry the next 6-10 days.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking more like 1" down here in the CR/IC area today.  Recent HRRR runs are focusing the best snow farther nw where 2-3" could fall.  The HRRR only has a 2-hour band of snow moving through this area.  It's a thicker, longer-lasting band up by Waterloo and Mason City.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_21.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...