January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

Moderate snow falling with a dusting of accumulation and a temp of 15.

[jaster220]

SUB-ZERO COLD!  Marshall plunged to -1F overnight, a full 8F degs below my grid-cast. #freshsnowcoveratwork

 

My wife and I decided to trek up to Hastings for dinner at a place called the Seasons right downtown. Just about dusk as the sun was setting and my goodness how awesome the pristine snow cover looked in the beautiful countryside of SWMI. I'd forgotten what real winter can look like when the sun pops around here and the snow is not all messed up from road salt, melting, etc. It's rare due to lake clouds but will happen most often on the heals of a sig synoptic storm. Hastings is further north about 40 miles, so they got less warm-n-rain and the snow was deeper and noticeably less igloo like. Was sweet to look out the window and see 2 foot tall plow banks along the street. Had to soak in #realmittwinter - finally! 

[Tom]

It snowed ... in Michigan ... in January. Heck of a call! My parents called and said they haven’t seen snow this deep since the ‘70s ... or November.

 

Serious question about your posts: Are they what you think is going to happen or are they the ways to potentially getting what you want — the coldest and snowiest outcome possible? It’s fine if it’s the second option but I disagree in your presentation as an objective view of what’s to come. Not everyone comes here for the same reasons.

 

I know I found this forum looking for something deeper than the nightly local news. Thought it was a place where those who knew weather talked about the weather (at least that’s how the forum is presented). It didn’t take long for me to see through the lingo and cherry-picked maps to see post after post on ways to get Snowmageddon in one’s backyard.

My call is for this pattern to be continued...not just a "one and done" scenario.  In terms of my LR post this morning, I take a lot of time and effort studying and analyzing what info I have at my disposal.  It's my God honest opinion on what I expect to happen and not wish-cast. When I see models going towards my ideas, it provides me reassurance in my call/prediction. 

 

In my defense, I already admitted on my bust for the expected longer duration cold during the 2nd half of December and now what is likely to be a warm month of January.  I will not, however, bust with regards to the stormier pattern that is transpiring.  Yes, it can snow in a warmer than average pattern in the heart of the cold season.  That is a fact.  I don't cherry pick, I don't just throw stuff out there and hope it sticks.  I know you lurk on here almost daily so I'm sure you read my posts and others as well.  I find it interesting you still decide to come back on here with different profiles and read what we ALL have to say.  I guess we are doing something right!

 

I don't need to explain myself any farther as I write detailed analysis on when storms are predicted to occur (high accuracy), trough/ridge patterns, warm or cold spells, active patterns, etc.

[Clinton]

The snow is winding down but I did pick up an inch of snow.  Combine the snow and cold and it's beautiful outside.

[Tom]

12z Euro still advertising another SLOW mover targeting the same areas with a significant winter storm.  The fine details are not important at this stage, however, a big juiced up storm is in the cards next Tue-Fri.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to show a big, slow-moving cut-off low in the 8-10 day period, but it doesn't have much cold air to work with.

[CentralNebWeather]

The Euro continues to show a big, slow-moving cut-off low in the 8-10 day period, but it doesn't have much cold air to work with.

Since it looks like my area is missing this week's storm, I can hope for this.  Pretty sad that it is January, and you have to be concerned about temperature issues.  NWS Hastings this morning mentioned this with precipitation types this week.  Well we will get what we get.  Hoping for a great Feb., March, and April.

[Tony]

The Euro continues to show a big, slow-moving cut-off low in the 8-10 day period, but it doesn't have much cold air to work with.

All we need at this point is it's showing a storm and the finer details will hopefully work out in our favor as we are definitely due.

[Clinton]

EPS mean going into early Feb

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.6" of fluff this morning from only 0.01" liquid.

[Niko]

Today, SEMI looked like it should look in January. Deep snowcover, temps starting out in the S.D's, remaining in the upper teens to low 20s, everybody outside bundled up, huge snow piles, kids sleding down the hills, people drinking hot chocolates and I can just go on and on and on. I really enjoyed the outdoors today.

 

Edit: another frigid nite w temps dropping into the S.D's under clear skies.

[Tom]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies just flipped back to a much colder, sustained look heading into February (post 4th). We are not done with the arctic air and snow my friends!  Before then, there are a couple systems to track and a potential GHD storm looming???  February is looking to open action packed with plenty of winter storms to track.

 

I posted the Day 5-15 mean and 30-day mean...

 

 

 

 

[SE Wisconsin]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies just flipped back to a much colder, sustained look heading into February (post 4th). We are not done with the arctic air and snow my friends!  Before then, there are a couple systems to track and a potential GHD storm looming???  February is looking to open action packed with plenty of winter storms to track.

 

I posted the Day 5-15 mean and 30-day mean...

Please verify!  Just once let these blasted models actually be right!

[Niko]

Attm, 18F under crystal clear skies.

[OKwx2k4]

My call is for this pattern to be continued...not just a "one and done" scenario. In terms of my LR post this morning, I take a lot of time and effort studying and analyzing what info I have at my disposal. It's my God honest opinion on what I expect to happen and not wish-cast. When I see models going towards my ideas, it provides me reassurance in my call/prediction.

 

In my defense, I already admitted on my bust for the expected longer duration cold during the 2nd half of December and now what is likely to be a warm month of January. I will not, however, bust with regards to the stormier pattern that is transpiring. Yes, it can snow in a warmer than average pattern in the heart of the cold season. That is a fact. I don't cherry pick, I don't just throw stuff out there and hope it sticks. I know you lurk on here almost daily so I'm sure you read my posts and others as well. I find it interesting you still decide to come back on here with different profiles and read what we ALL have to say. I guess we are doing something right!

 

I don't need to explain myself any farther as I write detailed analysis on when storms are predicted to occur (high accuracy), trough/ridge patterns, warm or cold spells, active patterns, etc.

Just because I haven't gotten the snow, per se, does not mean in my opinion that we won't.

 

Keep writing. I'm just not on here because my weather isn't really that interesting right now and have a lot going on. A lot of my current analysis agrees with yours. I remember this part of the pattern. In fact, this storm upcoming imby is a repeat. Will it have snow? Not for me. Will the latter storms verify? Yes. Will they have the cold for snow? They didn't last time, so I guess we'll see after February.

 

I'm confident in my calls earlier in the start of winter. Cold start, bland middle, cold finish.

 

Imo, the only contempt I have is that a true bowling ball low starts in the PNW, lowers down into CO/4 corners region, swings out over the red river between TX/OK and rounds the corner at the Arklatex and either goes to Appalachia or Michigan. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's the understanding I've always had.

 

Is this next one maybe more of a GOM low?

 

Good writing Tom. Keep it up. I always enjoy your analysis. You always present a case for your thoughts very well. Notice how critics don't seem to have the intelligence usually to present their counterpoints? If people disagree, I wish they'd have the confidence to write out why and back it up like some of us do or teach out of our mistakes. A lot of real smart folks can't do that. Great job Tom.

 

I was 50/50 on the lukewarm crap in the middle, spoke my reservations and was objective. Sadly, it proved out. The middle of this winter is crap. Hoping for the option 2 which is "bookends" for the winter. Maybe I can get a good 20 day close and move on. Without snow, or real chances for it, this is just annoying and depressing anymore.

[Tom]

Just because I haven't gotten the snow, per se, does not mean in my opinion that we won't.

 

Keep writing. I'm just not on here because my weather isn't really that interesting right now and have a lot going on. A lot of my current analysis agrees with yours. I remember this part of the pattern. In fact, this storm upcoming imby is a repeat. Will it have snow? Not for me. Will the latter storms verify? Yes. Will they have the cold for snow? They didn't last time, so I guess we'll see after February.

 

I'm confident in my calls earlier in the start of winter. Cold start, bland middle, cold finish.

 

Imo, the only contempt I have is that a true bowling ball low starts in the PNW, lowers down into CO/4 corners region, swings out over the red river between TX/OK and rounds the corner at the Arklatex and either goes to Appalachia or Michigan. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's the understanding I've always had.

 

Is this next one maybe more of a GOM low?

 

Good writing Tom. Keep it up. I always enjoy your analysis. You always present a case for your thoughts very well. Notice how critics don't seem to have the intelligence usually to present their counterpoints? If people disagree, I wish they'd have the confidence to write out why and back it up like some of us do or teach out of our mistakes. A lot of real smart folks can't do that. Great job Tom.

My man! Thanks for the kind words. I’m always thinking of everyone on here when I write, analyze and study the various maps and data I have at my disposal. It’s been a rough winter down by you, hopefully that changes heading into Feb and you can score a couple hits. We really need that EPO to tank since the other teleconnections aren’t playing ball.

 

As for the late week system, I guess we can call it a rare cut-off storm instead of a bowling ball. I read that it’s rather rare to have a system as such in January (5% chance).

[OKwx2k4]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies just flipped back to a much colder, sustained look heading into February (post 4th). We are not done with the arctic air and snow my friends! Before then, there are a couple systems to track and a potential GHD storm looming??? February is looking to open action packed with plenty of winter storms to track.

 

I posted the Day 5-15 mean and 30-day mean...

Well, if history serves me well on this, I need a 6+ mean to even get an outside shot at a 1-3 event in there. 2" mean on the EPS means it might flurry down here. Most of that is probably the 1" of mix I'm supposed to get here in a day or 2.

[snowstorm83]

 

Funny video. My neighborhood is still really icy. The city just prays and waits for it to get above freezing. 

[Tom]

 

Funny video. My neighborhood is still really icy. The city just prays and waits for it to get above freezing. 

Thanks some wild stuff right there!

[Tom]

I've gotten so used to using the Tropical Tidbits site for my daily routine, I literally feel out of sync with the site being down!  Anyone else feel the same?

[Clinton]

I've gotten so used to using the Tropical Tidbits site for my daily routine, I literally feel out of sync with the site being down!  Anyone else feel the same?

It's throwing my whole morning off lol!

[Clinton]

Temps bottomed out at 6 last night but have risen to 14 with clouds and flurries.

[Madtown]

Puke

[Stormy]

I picked up 0.6" of fluff this morning from only 0.01" liquid.

That's about what I got. I didn't even put out my gauges, but figured it's only a trace to 0.01" liquid from that pure fluff. I measured a half inch of snow and will leave it as a trace of liquid.

 

Part of my driveway is pure ice and the UPS truck driver slid into our building nearby yesterday so will have some repairing to do once it's warm again! It didn't damage his truck and he actually got back out the slightly uphill drive Ok! The local gravel roads also are extremely icy in places that aren't covered in slippery snow on top of ice!! It's about as bad as it ever gets. Hoping for warm temps to melt it now.

[Andie]

Missing that big snow storm??? Here a link to New Foundland's bliz'.

Thought you might enjoy this. Officially 30" of snow.

 

https://www.iceagenow.info/newfoundland-24-hr-time-lapse-video-of-blizzard/#more-30627

 

They've requested military assistance to clear roads.

St. John’s Mayor Danny Breen said he said he is about 178 cm tall (5-foot-8), and “the snow in front of my front step is over my head. I can’t see either one of my cars in the driveway.”

 

Cold morning in No. Tx. 32*. Rain on the way.

[Niko]

Attm, 19F under sunny skies.

[Stacsh]

Puke

 

Yeah not looking good for cold to end January start February.  However as long as the LP's can track a little south of where they've been, snow is still in the equation for the midwest/GL's.  

[GDR]

It was 50 years ago when the Chiefs were in the Superbowl. Would love to see a GB vs.KC Superbowl this time around. That would be epic!

You’re right this year’s Super Bowl is going to be epic!

[jaster220]

Today, SEMI looked like it should look in January. Deep snow cover, temps starting out in the S.D's, remaining in the upper teens to low 20s, everybody outside bundled up, huge snow piles, kids sleding down the hills, people drinking hot chocolates and I can just go on and on and on. I really enjoyed the outdoors today.

 

Edit: another frigid nite w temps dropping into the S.D's under clear skies.

 

Yeah, on the way to dinner Sunday evening, I saw 2 kids at a rural home, bundled up in snow gear and actually just enjoying the fresh (and rare) snow! Just out in the front yard frolicking and goofing around in the white stuff. Like we used to do back before gadgets and home gaming systems became all the rage drawing Peeps into their cyber-worlds. Ofc, there were indoor games and stuff to do back then as well, but out-of-doors was considered the place to be whenever possible in my youth. My mom actually complained about how often I would ask to go play outside when I was too young to get into all the gear myself. I'd come back hours later half-frost bitten with numb extremities. That was just normal and I had a blast. Simpler times no doubt    

[Niko]

Yeah, on the way to dinner Sunday evening, I saw 2 kids at a rural home, bundled up in snow gear and actually just enjoying the fresh (and rare) snow! Just out in the front yard frolicking and goofing around in the white stuff. Like we used to do back before gadgets and home gaming systems became all the rage drawing Peeps into their cyber-worlds. Ofc, there were indoor games and stuff to do back then as well, but out-of-doors was considered the place to be whenever possible in my youth. My mom actually complained about how often I would ask to go play outside when I was too young to get into all the gear myself. I'd come back hours later half-frost bitten with numb extremities. That was just normal and I had a blast. Simpler times no doubt    

 

[Niko]

Gorgeous day outside. Sunny skies and temps in the 20s.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, on the way to dinner Sunday evening, I saw 2 kids at a rural home, bundled up in snow gear and actually just enjoying the fresh (and rare) snow! Just out in the front yard frolicking and goofing around in the white stuff. Like we used to do back before gadgets and home gaming systems became all the rage drawing Peeps into their cyber-worlds. Ofc, there were indoor games and stuff to do back then as well, but out-of-doors was considered the place to be whenever possible in my youth. My mom actually complained about how often I would ask to go play outside when I was too young to get into all the gear myself. I'd come back hours later half-frost bitten with numb extremities. That was just normal and I had a blast. Simpler times no doubt

Lol. I can remember playing outside as a kid for so long in the cold when it snowed that my extremities actually hurt when they warmed up.

[Plowguy-dupage county]

Lol. I can remember playing outside as a kid for so long in the cold when it snowed that my extremities actually hurt when they warmed up.

That was me. You couldn't keep me inside if you wanted to as a kid. Simpler times then.

[jaster220]

While the article (towards the bottom) mentions that these bomb cyclones are quite common in Atlantic provinces of Canada, they certainly are NOT here in the Lwr Lakes. Yet looking at the digging out in St. Johns looks so much like our great bliz of '78. I'm sure there are many smaller towns and cities in New Foundland province that got hit by this monster storm, but apparently not many larger cities thus all the focus has been on SJ's the capital. 

 

Just incredible how many more cities and population '78's monster affected with multiple states declaring a state of emergency. Over 3,000 helicopter sorties in OH alone! Even places like Chicago and Detroit that were fringed didn't get off easy. If only we could score something on this epic scale around our Sub. Ofc, we're still waiting for the legit warned event let alone a fantasy event. 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bomb-cyclone-buries-st-johns-delivers-new-snowfall-record/665138

[jaster220]

  TOR Warning in Seattle's CWA

 

 

Tornado Warning
WAC027-220145-
/O.NEW.KSEW.TO.W.0004.200122T0118Z-200122T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
518 PM PST Tue Jan 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Grays Harbor County in northwestern Washington...

* Until 545 PM PST

* At 518 PM PST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles southwest of Amanda Park, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught
without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or
destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will
occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Quinault around 530 PM PST.

[jaster220]

IF we could find some colder air to work with, this one the Euro is flashing at d10 would be interesting. Figures we get a great track but not the cold air to go with. 

 

[jaster220]

And ofc, the following week, the GFS has to say "hold my beer". Man that's some wicked cold plunging in..

 

[Clinton]

And ofc, the following week, the GFS has to say "hold my beer". Man that's some wicked cold plunging in..

 

gfs_T850_us_fh330-378.gif

Give me the track the Euro has with the push of cold the GFS has!

[jaster220]

Give me the track the Euro has with the push of cold the GFS has!

 

No kiddin! Problem is, they're (2) different systems. Ofc, if the Euro went out further, it may have something big like the GFS does at that range. Just get us one of those to go right, and Tom's dream call will start to shine 

[Niko]

Clear skies attm and temps are in the teens.