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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


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That is what I am expecting with this one.  I think it will look similar to the Nov 21st version.  Did you see the GFS trying to pick up on the cutters toward the end of the run this morning?  We have to get the AO and NAO to go negative!  How does the MJO look?

Yup, there are some big storms on the horizon, esp mid month but I'm worried of hard cutters during the mid month period unless things begin to change in terms of blocking.  The MJO is killing us from having a phenomenal pattern I'm afraid.  The only glimpse of hope is if the models trend better with the EPO/NAO/AO.  Last night, there were some better signals that the EPO relaxes but the SER may be to robust and overcome any cold that wants to press mid month.  Those members farther N & W may end up doing very well yet again.

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Also, with respect to the last system, I made a statement that I would donate to a charity if I got hit good (6"+ or 10"+).  I posted in the storm thread, but didn't ever receive a response from anyon

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look wher

Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics -

Posted Images

The Friday system is crapping out on some models as the pieces are interacting less.  Last night's Euro, the NAM, and now the ICON.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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40's in the forecast here for the 9th through the 15th.... I normally dont pay attention to accuweather, but there long range has been pretty darn good since mid December

Yes,  I think Accu-weather has gotten a lot better in their forecast, especially long range and short. I kinda trust them more than TWC tbh.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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12z UK has lost the Friday system... now just has some rain over the Ohio Valley.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GEFS are advertising the BIG potential for someone across the Plains/MW/Upper MW....possibly the Lower Lakes...during the 10th-15th.  In fact, the 12z GFS op flashed my call for a #heartlandblizzard during the 13th-15th.  Lots of potential my friends.  Just need to be patient with this pattern as it has so much going for to unleash something truly spectacular.  I have my concerns for those members across our eastern Sub and of course our southern members who will prob miss out during this period.

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12z GFS mean gets crankin fro the 9th on.

 

1579176000-b8ol9dl7q6o.png1579176000-dkw6kPD6mHM.png

Looking at GFS temps, they plummet down the Central Plains around this same time of this storm of January 12th and onwards. Real potential, but we’ve been teased before with cold that doesn’t materialize. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out in the next few weeks.

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12z Euro is interesting again, but for areas east of Iowa.

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019123112.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw (1).gif

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro still has the Jan 7th system... and still southeast of Iowa.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I don’t get the reasoning of if the AO or NAO is negative or if there is blocking the storm will track farther SE. This reasoning was used on this past storm and that’s why it hit the upper Midwest.

 

The storm for late in the week is modeled to track out of the southern plains into the Ohio Valley, it’s going way off to the southeast and there is no blocking or a negative NAO or AO.

 

Lezak used this excuse on his prediction for KC to see a major winterstorm with arctic air the last 7 days of Dec. Same indexes later this week and the storm is way off to the SE

 

 

 

???

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GFS has a colder look to it for KC at times, but the 12z run overall is still much above average on temps.

 

Hopefully we do indeed see the changes back to real winter, but, the GFS has been promising this for 6 weeks now. KC will finish DEC. +6.8 on temps. It’s been very warm in KC since Nov. 15th.

 

Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring winter back. We’re only 10 days into actual winter, 80+ days to go. Plenty of time.

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12z Euro...the first map is for the 3rd-5th system and then the last map is showing total snowfall post 6th-8th storm....busy week of model watching ahead for the MW/Lower Lakes region...could the tables be turning???

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I don’t get the reasoning of if the AO or NAO is negative or if there is blocking the storm will track farther SE. This reasoning was used on this past storm and that’s why it hit the upper Midwest.

 

The storm for late in the week is modeled to track out of the southern plains into the Ohio Valley, it’s going way off to the southeast and there is no blocking or a negative NAO or AO.

 

Lezak used this excuse on his prediction for KC to see a major winterstorm with arctic air the last 7 days of Dec. Same indexes later this week and the storm is way off to the SE

 

 

 

???

I think a lot of the indices are misunderstood on here as far as I can tell. My understanding is that the NAO, AO EPO, PNA, etc are all just numerical descriptions for the general location of jet streams over a certain domain.  For instance, a negative NAO generally means a general trough in the jet stream over northeastern north america, or a positive PNA means a general ridge in the jet stream over western north america.  These indices don't control the development of future weather themselves, they are just numerical descriptors.  One could in theory take the value of each index and blindly draw the general jet stream locations over the areas they cover to get a rough approximation of the weather.   

 

The only index I am aware that controls future weather is ENSO, and its influence is on a seasonal level and still not fully understood.  

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40's in the forecast here for the 9th through the 15th.... I normally dont pay attention to accuweather, but there long range has been pretty darn good since mid December

 

12z GEFS are advertising the BIG potential for someone across the Plains/MW/Upper MW....possibly the Lower Lakes...during the 10th-15th.  In fact, the 12z GFS op flashed my call for a #heartlandblizzard during the 13th-15th.  Lots of potential my friends.  Just need to be patient with this pattern as it has so much going for to unleash something truly spectacular.  I have my concerns for those members across our eastern Sub and of course our southern members who will prob miss out during this period.

 

LOL, I take a day off from following the action to go out and enjoy the #realsnow, and trying to catch-up on this thread. Pencil me confused. So many conflicting posts. A bunch saying the month's going up in a torch, and just about as many saying "storms, storms, and rumors of storms" storms galore on this run or that model. Anyways, quite that coaster ride. I see it's indeed now 2020 so I wish all here a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!!  :D

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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LOL, I take a day off from following the action to go out and enjoy the #realsnow, and trying to catch-up on this thread. Pencil me confused. So many conflicting posts. A bunch saying the month's going up in a torch, and just about as many saying "storms, storms, and rumors of storms" storms galore on this run or that model. Anyways, quite that coaster ride. I see it's indeed now 2020 so I wish all here a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!! :D

Happy New Year Jaster! Welcome to 2020! We still have 40 min left of this decade. Have a fun and safe New Year everyone!

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