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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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After analyzing the data from today's 12z suite, it is pretty obvious now that the pattern looks to amplify to the extreme post 10th.  Also of note, all the models are now seeing the NAO trending towards neutral around the 13th and the AO as well around the 15th.  The real problem for snow lovers farther east is the amazing similarities to Jan/Feb '19 of a stout -PNA pattern (SER).  It has been trending stronger (near -4 standard deviation) by the 11th/12th and holding for a few days.  All of this combined will undoubtedly cause chaos in the modeling.  I'm encouraged to see, however, the development of some high lat blocking as that could help with the storm track to those members in the MW/Lower Lakes.

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Still along way to go.  But every model run has storms just blast your area.

Thats an awesome sign. I hope your area gets blasted as well. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The snow system tracking across the region Fri/Sat has a convective/squall look to it almost like summer time thunderstorms.  Whoever is lucky enough to get underneath these heavier bands could score a nice surprise.  The slow pivot is also a plus.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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It's interesting that they mention 30-60 day cycles. I don' think I've ever read an AFD from a NWS office talking about cycles. Pretty neat to see bc I absolutely believe there are cyclical patterns and their thinking lines up with the 30-day harmonic pattern of the LRC I've shown before.

When I was reading it this morning, I was thinking about your ideas on cycles. It is great that my local office looks at these patterns.

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GFS coming in pretty decent with the Friday night clipper.  Snow ratios are low though, look to be about 8:1 despite very cold 850s.  Surface temps holding around 31-32, which would also limit accums on already warm surfaces.  The snow falling in the nighttime should help though.  I'll be in Colorado, so won't get to enjoy this one.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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My office summed up the models:

 

-- Next chance for precipitation on Tuesday --


No changes to the forecast. As noted previously, there is a wide
range of possible outcomes noted by the deterministic and ensemble
guidance, which justifies a chance for precipitation and nothing
more at this stage.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After analyzing the data from today's 12z suite, it is pretty obvious now that the pattern looks to amplify to the extreme post 10th.  Also of note, all the models are now seeing the NAO trending towards neutral around the 13th and the AO as well around the 15th.  The real problem for snow lovers farther east is the amazing similarities to Jan/Feb '19 of a stout -PNA pattern (SER).  It has been trending stronger (near -4 standard deviation) by the 11th/12th and holding for a few days.  All of this combined will undoubtedly cause chaos in the modeling.  I'm encouraged to see, however, the development of some high lat blocking as that could help with the storm track to those members in the MW/Lower Lakes.

 

Yeah, the thing that wasn't supposed to happen this winter.. :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Zzzzzzzzz................... Dry and above average continues

 

Tonight
Cloudy, with a low around 28. West northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Friday
A chance of flurries before 9am. Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 38. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 23.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 43.
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We'll see. I'm thinking it's an incher with better amounts North of here right now.

Nice! :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, a mild 43F under partly cloudy skies.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Pivotal Weather just added upper air data for the Euro.  I had been hoping to get the 500 vort maps, which I love to watch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Anyone

 

Is Texas going to get some real rain?

 

All we get is damp!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NOAA:

 

The 12z Euro has backed off a bit (compared to the 00z run) with the
amount of phasing occuring early next week along the Mississippi
River Valley, with the better cyclogensis now displaced over the
Eastern Great lakes vs directly over southern Lower Michigan.
Meanwhile, the 12z Canadian/GFS models do not indicate as much
phasing as the Euro, and are thus weaker and more progressive. Still
too far out to determine whether this trend will continue, or will a
stronger system (see 12z ICON) materialize. :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

The 12z Euro has backed off a bit (compared to the 00z run) with the

amount of phasing occuring early next week along the Mississippi

River Valley, with the better cyclogensis now displaced over the

Eastern Great lakes vs directly over southern Lower Michigan.

Meanwhile, the 12z Canadian/GFS models do not indicate as much

phasing as the Euro, and are thus weaker and more progressive. Still

too far out to determine whether this trend will continue, or will a

stronger system (see 12z ICON) materialize. :blink:

 

Tons of "false flag" runs on the models is a sign of a lackluster pattern (for here). Ofc, we just finished like 5 days of very dynamic conditions, they just mostly targeted the same areas on the W and N fringes of this Sub. Just not our winter. What do you do? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tons of "false flag" runs on the models is a sign of a lackluster pattern (for here). Ofc, we just finished like 5 days of very dynamic conditions, they just mostly targeted the same areas on the W and N fringes of this Sub. Just not our winter. What do you do? 

Amigo, you just have to hope for the best in this type of pattern that we are in. Hopefully we get a major snowstorm outta nowhere (a surprise event). Go back to page 5 and scroll down a little b4 reaching half the page and see the ensembles that Tom posted earlier today. They seem pretty impressive to me. Let me know what your thoughts are.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z Euro - clipper

 

The snow is expected to start just after dark, as always.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Good Friday all!  I'd like to start off by providing some better news in the medium/long range for us snow starved members who have been lacking in that dept.  Over the past couple of days, I've been monitoring the trends near Scandinavia and the modeling is showing signals of an impressive ridge to blossom in that part of the world that will impact our weather pattern across North America in the not so distant future.  In the meantime, even though we will be in an overall warm pattern throughout the next week or so, there are systems showing up that can lay down some snow and the one's that has been on my radar are during the (10th/11th) & (13th-15th) periods.  Once we get passed the 15th, I like the look off the ensembles that the North Hemispheric pattern is starting to resemble what I've seen before that is a precursor of a Polar Vortex disruption.

 

Last night's 00z EPS/GEFS are advertising an impressive Scandinavian ridge by the 13th or so which will have bigger implications to our wx pattern by mid month.  Before we get there, the target date of the 10th has been an important period for several reasons and none moreso is the development of an active pattern along with an extreme temp gradient pattern setting up shop across our Sub.  When looking at the Northern Hemispheric pattern at 500mb on the 10th, notice the blocking over the Pole/Greenland and the Split of 2 Vortex's which will be a key player for us.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_29.png

 

 

What we have developing are the following:

1) Blocking over the Arctic regions 
2) Scandinavian Block 
3) Relaxation of the EPO (neutral)

4) Strong SER  

 

One of the concerns I've had and pointed out a while back is if the SER would become as strong as last year's ridge.  I did not originally believe it would, but nature says it will.  Nonetheless, we'll have to deal with it for a period before it relaxes from its peak intensity during the (10th-20th) towards a more beneficial setup for our Sub.  The last few runs off the EPS have been pressing the cold farther south into the central CONUS during the Week 1-2 period.  We'll have to watch and see if the riding over Scandinavia continues to grow.

 

Check out the 500mb pattern during Week 2 and you can clearly see the impacts of the Scandinavian Ridge along with the Alaskan ridge trying to fight the SER.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_10.png

 

 

As we move along during the 2nd half of January, last nights Euro Weeklies turned colder and more wintry for the central part of the Sub.  I posted a 30-day snowfall mean through the rest of January below which gives some comfort that the cold will "press", esp once the NE PAC/AK ridge fires back up 2nd half of January.  In the meantime, we have to endure the slow process of getting out of this warmer regime.  In due time, Winter will lock back in and I'm rather confident it will.  

 

I'll finish the post with this map as the 06z GEFS members are showing the potential through the 15th of the month...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_306.png

 

 

 

 

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Models are suggesting there could be a lucky spot or two in Iowa that gets 3-4" of snow this evening/overnight.  The NWS is going with 1-3" with isolated higher.  There is very little moisture available, but it's a fairly potent vort with some convective-looking snow.  The heavier band should be quite narrow.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest HRRR has the narrow snow band barely missing Cedar Rapids to the sw.

 

There are some nice convective bulls-eyes, especially up in sw MN into nc IA.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_24.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z 3k NAM has a snow band track similar to the HRRR... and very convective in nature.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_7.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Deep South is being flooded with rain. Meantime, Texas is completely shut out of any moisture.

When will we see some rain?

 

As far as we are concerned, this is acting like a full blown Nina.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The global models have the snow band passing near Cedar Rapids.  The GFS and UK have near 0.30" precip through CR.  The NAM and HRRR were farther sw this morning, but the last few HRRR runs have moved back up to CR.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Radar presentation to the nw is pretty spotty... certainly not the typical band of clipper snow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow amigo, just saw this and jumped outta my office chair. WHOA to all of that snow for us. :o

 

Amigo, you just have to hope for the best in this type of pattern that we are in. Hopefully we get a major snowstorm outta nowhere (a surprise event). Go back to page 5 and scroll down a little b4 reaching half the page and see the ensembles that Tom posted earlier today. They seem pretty impressive to me. Let me know what your thoughts are.

 

Thoughts? Ok. Right now in this wishy-washy pattern, even the Euro seems to be "fooled" into painting a very rosy (aka snowy) outcome by presuming better phasing between jet streams. I'm not sold, and neither are most who have commented on the period in question (Jan 7-14th). The GEFS matrix of 20 members Tom posted above show about 50% with snow above nuisance level here. 50% is not high-level confidence territory. The Euro ENS mean map pretty much sums it up. Shows about 3.5" over a (15) day period, not to mention these LR maps have struggled to verify, even at the lower amounts shown. If you want to be excited for that, I can't stop you.  :lol:

 

Now compare it to say, a (9) day snowfall map from Jan of 2014 (15 day maps had even more!)

 

20140127 CMC 216hr Snowfall.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Few spits of snow starting to fall here. Radar actually not looking too bad with the returns out in C MN. A bit east of where some models had it.

 

Radar presentation to the nw is pretty spotty... certainly not the typical band of clipper snow.

 

Y'all are looking at the same radar, right??  :lol:  :P

 

Sorry, couldn't resist. Good luck to anyone chasing their chance at a little bit of the white stuff. Seems I've been luckier than many/most thru the heart of the Sub. I'll be happy for others to join the 1-3" storm party.   ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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