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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


Hawkeye

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Thoughts? Ok. Right now in this wishy-washy pattern, even the Euro seems to be "fooled" into painting a very rosy (aka snowy) outcome by presuming better phasing between jet streams. I'm not sold, and neither are most who have commented on the period in question (Jan 7-14th). The GEFS matrix of 20 members Tom posted above show about 50% with snow above nuisance level here. 50% is not high-level confidence territory. The Euro ENS mean map pretty much sums it up. Shows about 3.5" over a (15) day period, not to mention these LR maps have struggled to verify, even at the lower amounts shown. If you want to be excited for that, I can't stop you.  :lol:

 

Now compare it to say, a (9) day snowfall map from Jan of 2014 (15 day maps had even more!)

 

attachicon.gif20140127 CMC 216hr Snowfall.png

Beauty of a 2014 map! Brings back memories of that Winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 45F under cloudy skies. AN temps continue until mid Jan, if not beyond that. Wow.....so far, a mild Winter.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Euro has a nice snow just off to my north on the 9th and 10th.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Hopefully, that can come a a little south for ya and score some snow. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Y'all are looking at the same radar, right?? :lol: :P

 

Sorry, couldn't resist. Good luck to anyone chasing their chance at a little bit of the white stuff. Seems I've been luckier than many/most thru the heart of the Sub. I'll be happy for others to join the 1-3" storm party. ;)

Ha! Chance of snow was lowered to only 40% here and all I heard from the local mets was that the metro would probably be shut out. There’s light snow now falling and the returns are expanding a bit out to the west. So, looks better than I expected. It’s certainly not an organized storm by any means.

C69008F9-68BF-4575-AC89-49BE7E033C2A.jpeg

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Looks like a near miss for this weekends snow for SEMI........

SatNightNE.jpeg?w=632

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like temps push the upper 40s by mid January w rain in mby. B)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is what I want to see off today's 12z GEFS....early signs starting to point towards a disruption of the PV in the extended and bringing the Polar Lobe back across the Pole into North America just after the middle part of the month.  All of this is caused by the huge Scandinavian Ridge.  Are we going to see flashbacks of Jan '19 PV intrusion???  Severe winter is on the table...

 

 

 

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Hopefully the other half of January we see some hope.......

tenor.gif

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton---the cycle that we are in now already started, right? This takes us into end of March, give or take I'm assuming. Kinda lost track here.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hopefully the other half of January we see some hope.......

tenor.gif

 

Try reading the December thread again around the 10th.  It is hilarious about the talk of Historic cold, epic pattern for the end of December.  It's all a guess.  Sometimes guesses are misguided by selecting only information you want to hear or see.  

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National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
306 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Another mild day for early January standards across southeast
Michigan, as Detroit metro area temps held in the low to mid 40s.

Precipitation/rain shield missed southeast Michigan last night,
tonight we will probably not be as lucky, as brief deformation flare
up clips the far southeast section of CWA (see 12z euro), probably
around/just after midnight. The inherited higher pops also continue
to have support from the local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance.
Even so, thermal profiles become just marginally cold enough to
support snow, and with surface temps likely just above 32 degrees
during bulk of precipitation, snow accumulation would likely
struggle as the main northern stream upper level wave/cold pool (-16
to -17 C at 700 MB) swings through northern Missouri and then
along/south of the Ohio River on Saturday. None-the-less, a much
weaker shortwave/500 MB troughing will move through the Central
Great Lakes on Saturday, with perhaps enough further cooling in the
low levels (850 MB temps lowering to around -10 C) and lake
enhancement to support isolated snow shower activity sneaking into
southeast Michigan.

Sunday still looks to be the best shot of light accumulating snow as
copious amount of upper level PV streaks through the Great Lakes
region. However, lack of consolidation leads to some disjointed
forcing levels, with lead 700 MB warm advection air arm/fgen coming
through in the morning hours, with lots of dry air to overcome in
the low levels. By the time the better 850 MB moisture/forcing
arrives, mid level dry slot is impinging on the southern half of
the CWA. Still appears locations north of I-69 stand the best shot
at 1+ inch of snow. Surface/high temps in the mid to possibly upper
30s present a low chance of melting snow/rain risk as well.
Although, if lift/precipitation comes in stronger, surface temps
will end up being colder than forecasted.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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nao_neg_0.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9f

 

Where has this pattern gone!! :wacko:

 

 

 
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DMX update says an expansion of the advisory can be expected this afternoon.

 

Coming down good. Starting to stick!

 

Just measured 0.7" on patio table and railing. Huge flakes still

 

Congrats out there! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Try reading the December thread again around the 10th.  It is hilarious about the talk of Historic cold, epic pattern for the end of December.  It's all a guess.  Sometimes guesses are misguided by selecting only information you want to hear or see.  

I guess that's true.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 45F under cloudy skies. AN temps continue until mid Jan, if not beyond that. Wow.....so far, a mild Winter.

 

And when cold does choose to make a brief move into the CONUS, we get this all too familiar outcome. 

 

20200103 12z_GFS Surf_h270.png

 

I really don't want to go from all this mild into the deep freeze Tom's touting. Just skip that thanks very much. That silly PV pass-thru was a few days of brutal problematic-level cold that bounced out so quickly it was basically useless. Every time those plunge down with their extreme temps, it's been followed by extreme warmth. Pass! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And when cold does choose to make a brief move into the CONUS, we get this all too familiar outcome. 

 

attachicon.gif20200103 12z_GFS Surf_h270.png

 

I really don't want to go from all this mild into the deep freeze Tom's touting. Just skip that thanks very much. That silly PV pass-thru was a few days of brutal problematic-level cold that bounced out so quickly it was basically useless. Every time those plunge down with their extreme temps, it's been followed by extreme warmth. Pass! 

Yep, that is the one thing I am not looking forward too. I'd rather have AN temps, then getting a soaker, followed by "Arctic Air." Next day flurries or light snowshowers that could add a dusting....... :rolleyes:

 

This Winter so far is reminding me of 2015-16. I am pretty sure it was that Winter. Correct me if I am wrong, but I remember getting cold weather that Winter, followed by a rainstorm, followed by arctic intrusions and icy spots and flood waters that became iced up, followed by sometimes snow changing to hvy rain and etc and etc and etc. What an annoying and stubborn pattern that was (this as well).

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is what I want to see off today's 12z GEFS....early signs starting to point towards a disruption of the PV in the extended and bringing the Polar Lobe back across the Pole into North America just after the middle part of the month.  All of this is caused by the huge Scandinavian Ridge.  Are we going to see flashbacks of Jan '19 PV intrusion???  Severe winter is on the table...

 

I clearly remember posting that "hopefully we don't find ourselves having to rely on the random SSW for winter to show up". Well, here we are - worst concerns realized.   :wacko:

 

Edit: fwiw, OHWx posted shortly after you did and you both seems to be sniffing out the same upcoming "flip" 

 

The issue has actually been a general lack of thunderstorms over the Pacific keeping the Pac jet too weak/retracted, putting ridging south of the Aleutians/near the Dateline (which is too far west) and a trough on the West Coast (pumping the SE ridge).  We had our most interesting pattern in and around November when we actually had a more prolonged flare-up of convection over the western/central Pacific.  We should get another more prolonged flare-up mid-January through the first week or two of Feb over the Pacific which is why I think a shakeup is coming.  It's going to be very cold over Canada and once we dislodge that south we may flip pretty abruptly.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The HRRR has shifted snow all the way up to Dubuque as the low seems to be tracking farther north.  It also has most of the heavier snow over north central Iowa, in James' area, with lessening totals down toward Cedar Rapids.

 

It just began to snow very lightly here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR has shifted snow all the way up to Dubuque as the low seems to be tracking farther north.  It also has most of the heavier snow over north central Iowa, in James' area, with lessening totals down toward Cedar Rapids.

 

It just began to snow very lightly here.

Any chance you could post the precip map?  thank you in advance!

Pushing an inch here now. Snowing lightly attm

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Any chance you could post the precip map?  thank you in advance!

Pushing an inch here now. Snowing lightly attm

 

The pivot area up by you gets much of the snow.  The HRRR now has the central Iowa dry slot pushing through Cedar Rapids this evening, which drops our total down to an inch from the earlier 2-3".

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another great write up from NWS Hastings afternoon disco on the coming cold and active pattern.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

115 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

 

...Mild and Quiet Weather Next 7 Days but Mid-Late Month is

Looking Decidedly Colder and Possibly More Active...

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

 

Aloft: The beginning stage of a major pattern change is now at

the outer reaches of this fcst...and the new (-PNA) pattern should

be in place by next Wed. Progressive low-amplitude flow will cont

Sun-Wed but edging toward increasing amplification. Weak shrtwv

trofs will cross NEB/KS Sat night and Mon. By Wed...upstream

amplification and blocking over the Nrn Pac will be in place. Mdls

and ensemble means have been fcstg the PNA pattern to plunge

negative as a trof forms and is locked-in over the Wrn USA. A -PNA

pattern allows Arctic air to drain into the Wrn USA and Cntrl/Nrn

Plns. The stalling of the polar front just S and E of the rgn

also results in lots of clds and increased chances for precip as

vort maxima eject out of the Wrn trof.

 

Cold: Get ready for much colder air to arrive as we head toward

the middle of the month. And once it arrives...it will probably

stay. Temps have been very mild since mid Nov. With temps

undulating back and forth on 30-60 day cycles...it is probable

that once this cold air sets in...it will linger through Feb.

Temps will ebb-and-flow every few days...but they will favor

the downside.

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And when cold does choose to make a brief move into the CONUS, we get this all too familiar outcome. 

 

attachicon.gif20200103 12z_GFS Surf_h270.png

 

I really don't want to go from all this mild into the deep freeze Tom's touting. Just skip that thanks very much. That silly PV pass-thru was a few days of brutal problematic-level cold that bounced out so quickly it was basically useless. Every time those plunge down with their extreme temps, it's been followed by extreme warmth. Pass!

 

Wait....what’s wrong with this outcome?! Just kidding. I feel bad for you peeps to the east. You guys have waited too long for a good storm.

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Attm, its down to 37F now. Keep in mind, my average high is 31F. :lol: 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There are reports of 4-5+" up in north central Iowa where the heavy snow has pivoted and sat over the area.  Meanwhile, it's looking more like a dud down here.  The initial band whitened the grass, but instead of pivoting and parking over us, we are about to get dry-slotted.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There are reports of 4-5+" up in north central Iowa where the heavy snow has pivoted and sat over the area.  Meanwhile, it's looking more like a dud down here.  The initial band whitened the grass, but instead of pivoting and parking over us, we are about to get dry-slotted.

yeah its been parked over there for a while. just to my NW

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There is now a 7" report and it's still snowing pretty good there.

 

Models suggested our snow would begin around 7pm.  Instead, it's pretty much done by 7pm.  This system was handled poorly.

 

UPDATE:   Jeez, just as I posted an 8" report popped up. Wow!

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I must have jinxed us when I purchased a new shovel this afternoon.  We won't have anything to shovel.  The pavement is wet.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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