Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Maybe it's just me, but the GEFS isn't quite there yet at Day 10. Op may be an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 14.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 850mb ensembles are a slight touch behind 00z GEFS. Block is just a bit too far west. Obviously the big blast beyond Day 8 is an outlier, but it does show what is possible IF the block is setup just right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 850mb ensembles are a slight touch behind 00z GEFS. Block is just a bit too far west. Obviously the big blast beyond Day 8 is an outlier, but it does show what is possible IF the block is setup just right.Let see how this trends, it's looking like an outlier but it could also be the case of it leading the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I was hoping to see the mean temp 2-3c colder. No such luck. Maybe the next 3-4 ensemble runs will show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Let see how this trends, it's looking like an outlier but it could also be the case of it leading the way. Ya never know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 6z GFS EnsemblesPortland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Yakimahttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 This system has been all rain at Timberline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 2020 is going to be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Looks fun! Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 This is going to be good. I have felt it for many weeks now. You can ask my friend that I have been texting all season about how big this winter is going to be. He knows when I'm serious.Send me his number... I need to verify your story. This changes everything. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 The EPS definitely shows a retrogression signal in the 13-15 day range. Lets see if it stays consistent this time. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I have a feeling folks up north are gonna be pretty happy in a couple weeks. PDX especially. Rooting for y’all to get buried. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Praying this comes true. Would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Praying this comes true. Would be incredible.As well as inconceivable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just feeling really positive this morning. I think the overnight FV3 is onto something. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 As well as inconceivable Not really... it just happened 11 months ago. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 12z not looking as good as 06z at D6, but that would be hard to do.But it looks better at day 8. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010112/gfs_z500a_us_32.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 12z mirroring 6z basically through hr 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Not really... it just happened 11 months ago. Tim, it’s a fun word....just go with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Another solid run up to day 10. I’m surprised it is keeping up with the snowy theme around day 9 to day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Tankage!!! 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Had a little snow 3yrs ago today. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 10 Day Snowfall Totals Regional area Gotta love how PDX is in play again for deep snow. Deep is anything over 1" here, these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Not as snowy as the 06z (expected), but still pretty snowy nonetheless. Totals by D10...That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area. Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Great run, though those exact details at play would be somewhat sad for the lower elevations of the Portland metro (warm-nosed for the entire event). But the fact that we're seeing these kinds of systems show up in multiple runs couldn't be more exciting.Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house. My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 By day 12, we are in an box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I’d rather not have the trough dip into California but you can’t have everything and this run has been good enough. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010112/gfs_z500a_us_47.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 This looks like fun. Massive east winds, snow Crown Point will be fun! Have to dust off the anemometer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area. Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon! You are so crazy Randy. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wow. Amazingly the 12z doesn't look that different from the 6z. A lot of potential again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house. My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08.Yikes! 34” for December 2008 was just nudged out by February/March 2019 here with a 36” total. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Crown Point will be fun! Have to dust off the anemometer.That would be an orgasmic cross-cascade gradient. Spilling over into the McKenzie valley with a continental profile. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Another snowstorm at day 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all. But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week. We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around. It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10. I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Windy morning still 20—30 mph49* Total precipitation for my weather station 2019.....32.71 Seatac came in 1.17 higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Love that pattern of the surface low pasting Western Washington then dumbbelling around and giving us a Willamette Valley Special. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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