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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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PDX north gon' see a half meter.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12z GEFS 500mb pattern improved significantly very close to arctic and mirroring the Op run. Very good sign.

Definitely colder.

 

I am a believer now after the 12Z GFS suite... its coming.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Definitely colder.

I am a believer now after the 12Z GFS suite... its coming.

Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Tiger took a look at the 12z and...well...

 

Tiger Orgasm.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12z GFS Ensembles

 

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

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Oh? I don't think I like hearing that. What specifically ?

Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawx

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Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawx

Hmmm...... So a cold bias basically. He thinks so anyways. Canadian is "coolish" because the 500mb pattern isn't there yet. I don't really understand his reasoning unless I am not understanding something here.

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I'm thinking not all of January is this weak.

 

I50Hd2g.png

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawx

This is what he said last night:

 

Starting to wonder if the new US model (FV3/GFS) is having issues. The operational run continues to bring arctic air into W WA next Sat night. Many ensemble members support. But the Canadian and ECMWF solutions show shallower cold air bottled up by Rockies (reasonable). #wawx

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In the next two days anyone who watches the news will be getting edumucated on the impending glory and bounty that mother nature has in store for us all!

Even CliffMass will be on board shortly/

Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock.

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Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawx

Epic troll.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock.

A lock for me is inside 2 days, sometimes 1.  I've learned the hard way on that one.  If ALL or the majority of the models are locked in like in 08 then I can go out to maybe 4-5 days for a "lock", barely.  Just my humble, having been burned too many times, opinion. 

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Jaya and tim are going to join forces to make sure this thing doesn’t happen.

 

 

I am on board... its a freight train roaring towards us and its coming.     

 

Sorry... you are screwed for your Hawaii trip.    I would not really have a problem going back to Hawaii though.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A lock for me is inside 2 days, sometimes 1.  I've learned the hard way on that one.  If ALL or the majority of the models are locked in like in 08 then I can go out to maybe 4-5 days for a "lock", barely.  Just my humble, having been burned too many times, opinion.

 

models have been converging on this pattern nicely...but I totally agree I'm not sold until we get a few days closer...I am slightly excited though.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Bottom line is that we are now 7 days out from the cold period basically starting per the GFS and GEFS.    And its not backing down... actually the opposite.   Cannot be discounted any longer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other. 

 

My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other.

 

 

 

My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like.

SpotWX shows a high of -10C here on Sunday. If that’s not arctic i don’t know what is
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I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other. 

 

My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like. 

Ah, but Yakima mean temp is at -10c to -12c, so we have backdoor cold and if there's any east wind even if 850s at PDX are -8c, there would be a low level arctic blast Gorge, Columbia Basin funneling into PDX. It would be really cold.

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Not sure the ECMWF can even be trusted at this point.

 

Here is what it showed one week ago this morning for today...

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

And here is what actually happened...

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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