Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy]

some posters sarcasm is harder to read than others. 2/3rds of the stuff posted on here is serious then the other 1/3rd it's not. Makes it hard to tell sometimes lol.

. I can’t tell if he is sarcastic or believes what he is saying half the time.

[Jesse]

The first of many coming. You should get buried with this pattern coming up.

Funny how the most negative people who poop on everyone else’s chances often end up doing the best. I can imagine Tim and Andrew doing quite well too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

some posters sarcasm is harder to read than others. 2/3rds of the stuff posted on here is serious then the other 1/3rd it's not. Makes it hard to tell sometimes lol.

 

 

Lest anyone be confused. Saying "Oregon eats a bag of dicks" is a tip off that it is not a serious post. 

[kokaneekidz]

This place is the ultimate SITCOM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So Andrew is all out. Probably thinks that nothing will come of this. Probably thinks that existence is meaningless and it will never get cold again.

 

Cool bro.

 

Right.

 

Pretty sure I also said this run is a lot better than the last two, because it was. 

[Cloud]

Good lord

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's be honest though. The points Tim brings up about the GFS solution for next weekend should not be ignored. 

[umadbro]

Everyone comply

 

Andrew is an emo boy

 

Tim is a cold weather weenie

 

Rinse and repeat

[TT-SEA]

I do think that people who live in places that routinely get snow and often get buried probably don't have the same insane obsession with seeing a single flake of snow.     That is probably annoying to the people who are totally obsessed with that.   I understand that point of view.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This place is the ultimate SITCOM.

The strange thing is other forums I belong to DO NOT TOLERATE posters that constantly attack and dissect every single post that others make and stir up constant forum drama. Seriously Ridiculous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12-14th period is interesting on the ensembles. For PDX about 1/4 of the members are much warmer, about 1/2 are fairly close to the operational, and then about 1/4 dip below -10C. A bit more spread in that period than previous runs, and more potential really either way there. 

[TacomaWaWx]

The strange thing is other forums I belong to DO NOT TOLERATE posters that constantly attack and dissect every single post that others make and stir up constant forum drama. Seriously Ridiculous.

True. This place is the wild west compared to other places. You can get away with saying a lot of stuff here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I do think that people who live in places that routinely get snow and often get buried probably don't have the same insane obsession with seeing a single flake of snow.     That is probably annoying to the people who are totally obsessed with that.   I understand that point of view.

You are the only one on here probably that could care less if it snows but you do obsess over sunlight.

[TT-SEA]

The strange thing is other forums I belong to DO NOT TOLERATE posters that constantly attack and dissect every single post that others make and stir up constant forum drama. Seriously Ridiculous.

 

Personal attacks should never happen.

 

But... many of us have been together for 15 years on here.   Put a bunch of people in a room for 15 years and tell me they won't be constantly poking at each other.   Its human nature.  

[Skagit Weather]

Splat test positive here (although it could just be very wet hail...)

[TT-SEA]

You are the only one on here probably that could care less if it snows but you do obsess over sunlight.

 

 

Very true.   My location has made me obsess over sunlight.    I was never like that before.   I totally craved rain and clouds in Southern California.   I thought this was the perfect place.   Overshot the target.   

[Blizzard777]

Anyone who lives in WA that isn't excited by that run doesn't have a pulse.  Wow!  By far the best GFS run yet.

Had to double down on my blood pressure meds!  I like it!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

WRF for hour 180

 

[The Swamp]

The strange thing is other forums I belong to DO NOT TOLERATE posters that constantly attack and dissect every single post that others make and stir up constant forum drama. Seriously Ridiculous.

This place is very entertaining. Why would the moderators want to censor any of what is posted. I love this forum in the winter.

[HighlandExperience]

Funny how the most negative people who poop on everyone else’s chances often end up doing the best. I can imagine Tim and Andrew doing quite well too.

 

The rich get richer in life. 

[OysterPrintout]

There's a lot of competition but one of my personal favorite parts of this forum is when regular posters make absolutely definitive statements about what's coming; up only for the models to absolutely savagely burn them within 24 hours and you would think this would deter them BUT NOPE they get up, dust themselves off, and make even more absolutely definitive statements that are now the complete opposite of what they were claiming just the day prior.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The strange thing is other forums I belong to DO NOT TOLERATE posters that constantly attack and dissect every single post that others make and stir up constant forum drama. Seriously Ridiculous.

This is like the Seahawks forum that I visit (but don't belong to).  The Seahawks win, everyone loves each other, just like after a great model run. They lose, there is a lot of personal attacks, hate, etc., just like this forum when the models go bad.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There's a lot of competition but one of my personal favorite parts of this forum is when regular posters make absolutely definitive statements about what's coming; up only for the models to absolutely savagely burn them within 24 hours and you would think this would deter them BUT NOPE they get up, dust themselves off, and make even more absolutely definitive statements that are now the complete opposite of what they were claiming just the day prior.

You would think that by now some people would know that the actual weather does what it wants to do and is not dictated by the models.  As one famous forecaster with the initials of JB once said, "the models aren't the weather, the weather is the weather".

[FroYoBro]

Splat test positive here (although it could just be very wet hail...)

 

Shhh. I'm trying to figure out who to be mad at. 

[GHweatherChris]

I just hope you all have a great day today!!

[Front Ranger]

Not everything is falling apart as it gets closer.

 

Here is today for day 4.

 

 

 

Here is 4 days ago for the same time frame.

 

[TT-SEA]

Not everything is falling apart as it gets closer.

 

Here is today for day 4.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

 

 

Here is 4 days ago for the same time frame.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

Compromising.

[TacomaWaWx]

In terms of current weather. We're at 40 degrees this morning after being at 60 yesterday evening. We're at exactly 1 inch of rainfall for January now. 1.5-3.0" of rain the next several days expected for Western WA/OR with breezy fronts pushing through and plenty of mountain snow. Has been nice getting real south winds and wetter conditions since mid December.

[kokaneekidz]

A harbinger of things to come;

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Pass Report

TEMPERATURE:

32ºF / 0ºC

ELEVATION:

4061 ft / 1238 m

RESTRICTIONS EASTBOUND:

Chains required on all vehicles except all wheel drive, Oversize Vehicles Prohibited.

RESTRICTIONS WESTBOUND:

Chains required on all vehicles except all wheel drive, Oversize Vehicles Prohibited.

CONDITIONS:

There is compact snow and ice on the roadway

WEATHER:

Snowing, wind, and areas of poor visibility

Updated: Saturday January 4, 2020 10:00 AM

Disclaimer

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With all the drama I bet most people would give the shirt off there back if a forum member needed help I know I would, even Tim lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hoodoo picked up 6" overnight! 

[FroYoBro]

Some snow in the air for Oregon valleys at hour 120 on Euro. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Today we will probably see the GFS still pulled back while the Euro and others move to be colder. We will see a couple forum members call the whole event dead and piss and moan. Then probably tonight or tomorrow morning the GFS will be back on board.

The 500mb pattern hasn’t changed much, the PNA is text book amazing, and the EPS hasn’t fallen off the wagon. Again, if you live north of Silverton, OR, you’ll probably see significant snow and/or significant cold.

It feels like we have been through this before.

It feels like we've been through this before because we HAVE been through this before.

[runninthruda206]

Today we will probably see the GFS still pulled back while the Euro and others move to be colder. We will see a couple forum members call the whole event dead and piss and moan. Then probably tonight or tomorrow morning the GFS will be back on board.

 

The 500mb pattern hasn’t changed much, the PNA is text book amazing, and the EPS hasn’t fallen off the wagon. Again, if you live north of Silverton, OR, you’ll probably see significant snow and/or significant cold.

 

It feels like we have been through this before.

 

Thank you for the positivity!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some snow in the air for Oregon valleys at hour 120 on Euro. 

 

GFS ensemble mean is down to -5.3C for that trough. 

[OysterPrintout]

You would think that by now some people would know that the actual weather does what it wants to do and is not dictated by the models.  As one famous forecaster with the initials of JB once said, "the models aren't the weather, the weather is the weather".

 

It is in this vein I sort of respect a poster like [NAME REDACTED] who has unwavering faith that an upcoming pattern will deliver, ignoring model signs to the contrary up until the point where it does't happen and they have a meltdown but at least they made a stand regarding a prediction.

 

It's in stark contrast to posters like [NAMES REDACTED] that hyper-focus on (usually negative) very specific model run details only for those details to often change in the next few days or sometimes even hours later without any sense of the history of the amount of times this has burned them.

[Farmboy]

This place is hilarious. It's gonna be 70° and sunny down here in AZ today, good entertainment..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today we will probably see the GFS still pulled back while the Euro and others move to be colder. We will see a couple forum members call the whole event dead and piss and moan. Then probably tonight or tomorrow morning the GFS will be back on board.

 

The 500mb pattern hasn’t changed much, the PNA is text book amazing, and the EPS hasn’t fallen off the wagon. Again, if you live north of Silverton, OR, you’ll probably see significant snow and/or significant cold.

 

It feels like we have been through this before.

 

I feel terrible for TWL.

[Blizzard777]

Splat test positive here (although it could just be very wet hail...)

Some small hail falling here as well