Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Best ensemble run yet and the operational bottoms out at -17.

[snow_wizard]

I think the 18z is off it’s rocker. None of the models had showed what it’s showing after about 260 or so. It completely flips the ridge and trough around on us. I hope that’s not a trend.

 

That is so far out. Lots of good stuff before that.

[Gradient Keeper]

IF 00z GFS continues the same progression Day 4-8 look for major ensemble improvement tonight.

[Prairiedog]

Temps in the 40's not too far offshore.

That has undercut written all over it.  Could be an ugly transition if it decides to go that way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11-16th is very cold on the ensembles.

[GHweatherChris]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

That is dumb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational is a big warm outlier at the end. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Did someone post a picture of me in my cheerleading outfit? I told my wife to delete those.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS 500mb definitely does not undercut the block. It holds the same pattern through Day 16. Block remains nicely amplified. Very persistent southeast ridge and heights rebuild over Alaska. Amazing potential ahead the next 1-2 weeks, maybe longer....

[Deweydog]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

WSP is en route to take a report.

[bainbridgekid]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

Analysis has seemed pretty fair and balanced to me lately considering the heightened emotions.

[Requiem]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

 

Things haven't seemed that bad recently, to be honest.

[Gradient Keeper]

Analysis has seemed pretty fair and balanced to me lately considering the heightened emotions.

I agree. It's not like someone is saying 850s will be -30c with 9 feet of snow! LOL

[James Jones]

Are there any analogs for the kind of evolution shown on the 18z? Seems hard to believe we could go into the deep freeze before heights even get above ~543dm over Anchorage.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

Cheer-leading as in wanting cold and snow to happen (as opposed to warm and rain), or cheer-leading as in wishcasting?

[The Swamp]

I might turn off the Seahawks and run outside to cut my grass.  Need to maximize any snow I get for multiple monsters.

[MossMan]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

Sounds like we are only allowed to post maps with no positivity. Sad.

[GHweatherChris]

[Deweydog]

Down to 43 at KDLS.

[TT-SEA]

I think some of the runaway enthusiasm and excitement is fun to read. Its entertaining.

[Blizzard777]

Two DMs from people who say they never post here because of the unrealistic cheer leading.

Would love to have them post to keep things real.  Brings balance to the force!  

[Blizzard777]

I might turn off the Seahawks and run outside to cut my grass.  Need to maximize any snow I get for multiple monsters.

I used to do that as well!! No longer have grass, just wood chips and snow gathers on it quickly! 

[High Desert Mat?]

Operational is a big warm outlier at the end.

Post those ensembles dude!!!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the ensemble mean only gets down to -6 down here.  Quite the gradient.

 

[Requiem]

OK, unfortunately, looks like nothing is going to happen. In fact, temperatures are likely to be mid-70s to even 80s next week, with no wind or precipitation to speak of. 

 

Better?

 

In all seriousness Jay Albrecht is putting out some great yet tempered info on his Twitter-- his latest Tweet talks about the possibility of freezing sea spray due to any kind of Fraser Outflow.

 

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1213961828352413696

[MossMan]

I thought we were supposed to have a warm up today? Still 39 degrees.

[GHweatherChris]

I thought we were supposed to have a warm up today? Still 39 degrees.

Airmass overhead is actually a bit chilly.

[BLI snowman]

Analysis has seemed pretty fair and balanced to me lately considering the heightened emotions.

 

We can't help the fact that the models look good.

[MossMan]

I used to do that as well!! No longer have grass, just wood chips and snow gathers on it quickly!

I would as well (would have done it on the 35% humidity 60 degree day) but my mower is already converted to a snow plow!

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Things haven't seemed that bad recently, to be honest.

 

 I think the issue might come with how it might be perceived in professional/academic meteorological community, nobody really wants to look like a nut or even be considered naive in this field. The public, our out of discipline colleagues, friends and family take our words about this subject with earnest. In and out of the field maybe some of us try to tread carefully around cheering for exciting long-range solutions, we know they probably won't turn out, but it's still thrilling for us on the inside too.

 

Edit: I also know some of you might get irrational about this loose defense, that's another reason.

[GHweatherChris]

I would as well (would have done it on the 35% humidity 60 degree day) but my mower is already converted to a snow plow!

Me too but we now have 60 mole hills in the backyard, no thanks.

[MossMan]

We need more Walter Kelley’s and less Rich Marriott’s in our weather weenie world!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I thought we were supposed to have a warm up today? Still 39 degrees.

 

We made it to 50F in downtown Springfield. EUG held tough at 49F. 43F for a low so a 46F avg. About a +7F departure.

[Blizzard777]

We need more Walter Kelley’s and less Rich Marriott’s in our weather weenie world!

Lol, excitement is good for the soul 

[fubario]

 I think the issue might come with how it might be perceived in professional/academic meteorological community, nobody really wants to look like a nut or even be considered naive in this field. The public, our out of discipline colleagues, friends and family take our words about this subject with earnest. In and out of the field maybe some of us try to tread carefully around cheering for exciting long-range solutions, we know they probably won't turn out, but it's still thrilling for us on the inside.

 

Edit: I also know some of you might get irrational about this loose defense, that's another reason.

 

Thanks, Cliff.

[bainbridgekid]

The purpose of this forum isn't to provide the most balanced, accurate, and tempered forecasts for the public's consumption. There is the NWS and weather apps for that.

 

The purpose of this forum is for weather nuts to discuss exciting and interesting weather with other weather nuts. Unbridled excitement at the possibilities is part of that.

[Esquimalt]

The East Vancouver Island snowbelt could be looking at a fair amount of strait-effect snow out of this; could produce some major localized accumulations if things actually get that cold aloft.

How much straight effect could Victoria see in your opinion?

[Cloud]

Lmao. Wtf. The GFS refuses to compromise with the Euro but trends colder. Someone needs to be the responsible parent to this madness

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS individual ensemble members snowfall charts look much improved over 12z, especially for Seattle.

 

75% show 4 inches or more, which is an increase of 20% over 12z.

Great info. I really like the way you've been reporting on these.

 

How does it look for KPAE?

[Requiem]

 I think the issue might come with how it might be perceived in professional/academic meteorological community, nobody really wants to look like a nut or even be considered naive in this field. The public, our out of discipline colleagues, friends and family take our words about this subject with earnest. In and out of the field maybe some of us try to tread carefully around cheering for exciting long-range solutions, we know they probably won't turn out, but it's still thrilling for us on the inside too.

 

Edit: I also know some of you might get irrational about this loose defense, that's another reason.

 

I get that, but this forum isn't supposed to be a place to get any sort of professional information. Sure, we theorize and discuss the weather, but in the end it is the NWS and the mets that should be heeded and listened to. With complete and utter respect to everyone on here, this is a site for amateur weather fans, with some individuals a lot more knowledgeable than the average person about our climate.