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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

Timmy Supercell

By Timmy Supercell
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the disturbance of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you do

SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

I've been lurking here for years and rarely post, but let me just say this about the ridiculous Tim criticism. 1) You've all added about 100x more attention and energy to these "negative" posts than t

Skier B
Skier B

Just for you, snow wizard!!  1969 near SeaTac Airport.   Found these while moving my uncle out of his house.  My grandfather sent them to him when he was over seas fighting in the Vietnam War.   Grand

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
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Realizing I may get sadist-shamed for this, regardless of the “consistency” those runs were extremely suspect just based on simple teleconnectivity.

 

The overriding theme is upstream support is tentative at best. Any influx of continental air into Washington/Oregon is gonna be smaller-scale dependent unless that changes significantly. As the dopey new GFS gets closer it seems to be having some “oh yeah!” moments.

 

Yeah, I know you were suspicious because Anchorage wasn't hitting a certain heights threshold, but it's not like the teleconnectivity was completely outlandish. The colder runs tended to have a lot more ridging into AK...and the EPO as a result was starting to show the more negative signal you'd expect with a PNW arctic outbreak.

 

Regardless, we hadn't gotten within 5 days, which is the time period the GFS traditionally becomes a lot more solid. So the fact that it's backing off now doesn't really mean a whole lot - I was just adding some Andrew fodder.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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kokaneekidz Experienced

kokaneekidz

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True that. I was just referring to the low placement offshore. I forget where the cold air came from. Was it over the ocean outta SE Alaska or ?>?????? Dunno.

Different pattern. 96 was  a massive AR slamming in from the SW overrunning Arctic air in place with a massive warm up.

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jakerepp Mentor

jakerepp

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First time I've landed on the n-s runway at pdx but it doesn't seem terribly stormy. Did I miss anything?

Runway 3/21? 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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The good news is if the new gfs is like the old then the runs should really get good again About Tuesday night.

 

We need Euro improvement. Days 5-8.

 

It's struggled quite a bit lately, but I'd still feel a lot better about things if it started showing Arctic air south of the border in that time frame. For more than one run.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Rather drastic differences with the Euro OP vs Ensembles. The EPS dramatically improved. It looks like some solid backdoor cold if not an arctic blast for the Columbia Basin, Gorge. That is probably a good clue that the Op run perhaps tonight may improve becoming colder. With the big pattern change the GFS and EURO Ops are struggling badly. I do see signs the GFS Op is moving closer to the EPS in that it's not ball to the wall cold anymore. I don't really buy the sudden warm-up Day 10+ on the EPS. On the EURO Op really need that low to weaken Day 4 so it can phase better with the arctic trough. The EPS is obviously phasing very well with it. With the PNA super tanked I'd have to think the chances of sustainable cold are increasing. Ah the fun of model riding.

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 2 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutes

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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No way this rainband sits just north of the Portland area for several hours.

It’s practicing for when it’s a snow band doing the same thing 10 days from now.

 

Now that’s some sadistic right there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Meanwhile, Phil is going to get torched this weekend.

You don’t say? Might hit 80*F, lol.

 

Probably a few QLCS/severe weather outbreaks mixed in there as well. Reminds me of Feb/Mar 2008 which brought two rounds of 75-80mph winds.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Blizzard777 Grand Master

Blizzard777

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And carports crashing down onto cars while their owners got their pictures in the Bellingham Herald inspecting the damage!

 

I partook in this ritual.

Ouch!  See, these are good times!  We interacted with 1996

 

I came home from work seeing a river of water coming out my garage door and carving a path through the drifting snow down my driveway.  Pretty sure this was the primer for starting the Columbia River to flood.  This is when I lived in Troutdale 

No local news to catch the look on my face

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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18z GEFS huge improvements in that the backdoor cold is more persistent by far this run. Yakima stays at -10c to -8c through the 23rd now. 12z GEFS showed 850s for Yakima by the 17th warming to -5c. If that's correct it's a signal for sustainable backdoor cold support for PDX, east winds.

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AbbyJr Community Regular

AbbyJr

Posted
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Rather drastic differences with the Euro OP vs Ensembles. The EPS dramatically improved. It looks like some solid backdoor cold if not an arctic blast for the Columbia Basin, Gorge. That is probably a good clue that the Op run perhaps tonight may improve becoming colder. With the big pattern change the GFS and EURO Ops are struggling badly. I do see signs the GFS Op is moving closer to the EPS in that it's not ball to the wall cold anymore. I don't really buy the sudden warm-up Day 10+ on the EPS. On the EURO Op really need that low to weaken Day 4 so it can phase better with the arctic trough. The EPS is obviously phasing very well with it. With the PNA super tanked I'd have to think the chances of sustainable cold are increasing. Ah the fun of model riding.

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 2 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutes

I don't buy the sudden warmup on the EPS either. That far in advance the resolution is lower so its best to not worry about it right now. The good news is the EPS is improving on the short-mid range. This has the potential to be a prolonged cold snap. Models are often too quick at pushing out the cold, so there is no reason to worry about something 10+ days away.

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SeanNyberg Rising Star

SeanNyberg

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I love that the expectation game runs the same regardless of the "fandom" ... yes I called weather geeks a fandom. 

 

Here's the routine ... something is on the horizon that looks promising, a bunch of excitement and hype is built up, reality sets in as it approaches, the result is still GREAT and sometimes even PHENOMENAL, but it falls below initial expectations, so much of the joy that one would typically have is muted because it's deemed a letdown compared to initial thoughts.

 

Weather: Extended forecast says arctic blast with potential huge snow totals, everyone goes nuts (but they make sure to say "we know this is fantasy, but it's fun to watch" even though they are allowing themselves to sort of be tricked to believing this fantasy (I do it too, we all do), as we get closer the forecasting models still indicate a potentially large winter storm - but maybe not record breaking, so we sort of just shrug at a few inches here and there ... when in reality, a few inches of snow is a ton of fun and not always guaranteed. But that D**n expectation game doesn't allow us to be excited for something we would've been excited for if the initial forecasts weren't so intense.

 

Major Movie Franchise: The new movie is going to make $2 billion! It's going to break the top 5 grossing movies ever. It comes out, it doesn't break $2 billion, but it makes $1.5 billion ... a massive milestone and a massive success, yet, the fandom feels like it's a failure.

 

Football Team: They are stacked this year, they are going to be undefeated in the regular season. They lose 1 or 2 games, still are first in their division, fandom sees it as a failure, even though the losses were close and the team still ranks first.

 

It works for so many things. LOL. It's not a critique or ANYTHING, I'm just a member of handful of fandoms, this one included, and I find it amusing and somewhat comforting that no group has a monopoly on the whole expectations game setting an impossible and improbable standard that isn't met, but still is remarkable, however it feels like a failure.

:) 

 

I'm excited for some potential slush storms later this week and next week still looks like a crap shoot. Single digits seem highly unlikely, but weren't they always ... truly?  I'll tell you what, after a lame October-December I'm excited for any kind of notable weather. :) Love watching the energy and the optimism ebb and flow in even a 3 hour period. LOL

--------------------

Sean Nyberg

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   X:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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18z GEFS huge improvements in that the backdoor cold is more persistent by far this run. Yakima stays at -10c to -8c through the 23rd now. 12z GEFS showed 850s for Yakima by the 17th warming to -5c. If that's correct it's a signal for sustainable backdoor cold support for PDX, east winds.

Portland ensembles also stays at -5c or colder through the 22nd. 12z GEFS had 850s above -5c by the 16th. Big changes! That likely signals the trough offshore holding far enough south to keep us from moderating much. That could become a big snow pattern.
 
 
Another good sign. Yakima surface temps 18z GEFS. Note the signal at the 12th showing temps dropping below 0c/freezing. Then it progressively turns colder and persists through the 23rd with no moderation. Very good sustained backdoor cold.
gfs-yakima-us-465n-1205w(1).png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

Are there any reports/websites that compare GFS, EURO and other weather model outputs for the PNW with actual data (i.e. what actually happened)? Specifically, how do they compare within 1-day, 5-days, 10-days of a weather event? And does this vary between types of weather events? I’d assume that their accuracy outside of a few days is only sufficient enough to evaluate large scale trends.

 

Which makes you wonder what the point of posting the snowfall maps is? I love watching the dichotomy between the “pray-4-snow” types and the “rational evaluator” types (because I side with both, kind of). If it’s known that the 15-day snowfall maps are fantasy land, then why can’t the “pray-4-snow” types be left alone to fantasize together? It’s fun and brings up discussion of weather events of ye olden days!

 

We’ve had several icy rain/brief snowfalls up here so far, but I’m hoping for several inches before winter is over to take our toddler out in. Hope everyone can score at some point! Until then, I’ll let TT-SEA take over for my area since he knows much more than I do. Cheers!

 

 

Its going to snow here... that is pretty much a given.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Randyc321 Mentor

Randyc321

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Quick question, why does there always appear to be a “snow hole” by tacoma in that area on maps? It doesn’t feel that Puyallup missing out on much, it feels that we get more than other places often

 

But you are up on South Hill.  That always gets way more snow that downtown Puyallup.

 

512 at Canyon is a great spot for snow on a marginal day.

Edit-when the flow is the right direction.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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As long as there is at least one ensemble member showing cold, we won't lose Jim.

 

Also worth mentioning that he almost never posts during week days.

 

The man actually has a job where he has to work instead of sitting around all day looking at fantasy snowfall maps and bantering back and forth on a weather forum.   Although he probably wishes he could do that all day.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Bueryan Enthusiast

Bueryan

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Quick question, why does there always appear to be a “snow hole” by tacoma in that area on maps? It doesn’t feel that Puyallup missing out on much, it feels that we get more than other places often

 

PuyallupJon might have some info on the swamp for you.  

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