Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[kokaneekidz]

Perfect placement to force a Arctic boundary thru the metro area swiftly filled with graupel hail snow lightning etc

 

The Canadians are trying to help eh?

[Esquimalt]

GFS ensembles over a degree cooler than the 18Z for the initial intrusion on Sunday.  

[Front Ranger]

not for many

 

Probably not for Hawaii.

[Deweydog]

Morning snow on MLK.

 

That MAY trend snowier.

[Requiem]

Alright, so, I think it's worth noting that ensembles, operationals, and different models seem very confused right now. But, good this is that both (for PDX, SEA will likely get something) show offshore flow and moisture sometime in the near future. We just need to get the cold down, is all.

 

EDIT: and GEM is wayyyy colder for the PDX area this run.

[Timmy]

Probably not for Hawaii.

or pdx!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

PNW is ground zero once again. Dewey not seeing the telokonnecters, though.

 

gem_z500a_namer_28.png

O Canada! Our home and native land!

True patriot love thou dost in us command.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is not going to be snow with the onshore flow such that it is.  Just not going to happen.

with The heights shown it could be 30mph onshore flow and still snow.

[Front Ranger]

The CMC pattern would certainly be ideal for slamming the greatest number of posters on here. Round after round of snow, even down to TWL at times.

[Deweydog]

Flatiron is ON BOARD!

 

(Flatiron is Front Ranger)

[Perturbed Member]

The 00z GEM snow maps can be used to provide some temporary refuge for our delusions of wintery grandeur, at least until the evil euro makes all bend to its will. Enjoy these moments while they last.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The CMC pattern would certainly be ideal for slamming the greatest number of posters on here. Round after round of snow, even down to TWL at times.

Yeah, still showing sub 510 thickness PDX North next Tuesday.

 

[Requiem]

Let's make sure to consider the GFS ensemble as well (I know FV3 is separate but still).

[The Swamp]

with The heights shown it could be 30mph onshore flow and still snow.

 

Been living in the swamp for 46 years and it doesn't happen like that very often.  Just don't buy it.  Not with this setup.

 

The placement of things on the Canadian that was posted up a few comments back looks more realistic for some snow in the Sound.

[Perturbed Member]

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like my area might just be waiting another year for ground-covering snow. Sigh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Go GEM

[Winterdog]

Yeah, still showing sub 510 thickness PDX North next Tuesday.

 

By next Tuesday the modeled 510 line will be in Canada.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like my area might just be waiting another year for ground-covering snow. Sigh.

It’ll be ok man. You’ll get a dumping one day.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like my area might just be waiting another year for ground-covering snow. Sigh.

 

I noticed that the GEM unleashes some monster shadowing on WA county when systems are approaching us from the NW. Far more than other models and it isn't just with showery precip. I'm not sure if the GEM is under the impression that Mt.Everest is just to our NW or what. Pretty odd.

[Deweydog]

I noticed that the GEM unleashes some monster shadowing on WA county when systems are approaching us from the NW. Far more than other models and it isn't just with showery precip. I'm not sure if the GEM is under the impression that Mt.Everest is just to our NW or what. Pretty odd.

That should be about the only thing accurate about the GEM.

[Phil]

This is just sad.

 

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron is ON BOARD!

 

(Flatiron is Front Ranger)

 

Trudeau threw me a life preserver.

 

I'm making my way towards the boat...unfortunately, looks like Trudeau is actually the Gorton's Fisherman, and he's humping a dolphin. May hold off on climbing aboard.

[Blizzard777]

Precipitation 1.18 so far today 

2.12 for the month

49* 

[Phil]

#GooFuS

[Deweydog]

This is just sad.

 

Hahaha!

 

Nice try. None of this is within five days yet so the GFS is still golden.

[Winterdog]

Go GEM

Isn't what the GEM shows pretty much meaningless when it counters both the GFS and the Euro?  To me it's just an aside that can be thrown out there as a conversation piece with no real value at all.  I wish it wasn't so.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

With the GFS being on molly with us I think it might be best to skip the night shift tonight unless the EC throws us a bone...but I think we all know how this movie ends.

[Blizzard777]

This is just sad.

 

Perhaps a Ferrari vs Ford opportunity some day! Can’t wait for that movie  

[Front Ranger]

Isn't what the GEM shows pretty much meaningless when it counters both the GFS and the Euro?  To me it's just an aside that can be thrown out there as a conversation piece with no real value at all.  I wish it wasn't so.

 

Not really. The GEM's overall verification scores have run pretty close to the GFS...and it's been more accurate within a week recently.

 

Definitely not something to bank on at this point, but with all of the issues models are having with this pattern, it can't be discounted either. We're seeing a lot of different possibilities within 7 days.

[Requiem]

So, are the ensembles that bad? I wouldn't think so, but we'll see...

[Perturbed Member]

The grand total

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I noticed that the GEM unleashes some monster shadowing on WA county when systems are approaching us from the NW. Far more than other models and it isn't just with showery precip. I'm not sure if the GEM is under the impression that Mt.Everest is just to our NW or what. Pretty odd.

It definitely overdoes the shadowing in the East Slopes of the Cascades.  It shows places like Moses Lake and Quincy getting 3 times as much snow as Leavenworth, where in reality, we average 4-5 times as much snow and precipitation as they do.  Obviously we get shadowed compared to Stevens Pass, but no way do we get less than the Basin.

[The Swamp]

Everyone here needs a 10.77 Evaluation.

[Bryant]

I think some tears were shed in here tonight...

 

On the bright side, it's only Monday, so there's plenty more time to get your hopes up, only to have them crushed all over again before this event

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is just sad.

 

They have better supercomputers.

 

"ECMWF's High Performance Computing Facility (HPCF) is the result of a competitive procurement carried out in 2012 and 2013. This resulted in ECMWF awarding a two-phase service contract to Cray UK Ltd to supply and support this HPCF until mid-2018. The contract was signed on 24 June 2013.

 

In 2015, Cray and ECMWF signed a contract amendment extending the support period to 2020. This allowed Cray and ECMWF to upgrade the main systems in the first half of 2016 with the latest generation of Intel processors and add extra memory and storage. In the second half of 2016, we added a new standalone cluster with 32 Intel Xeon Phi processors to support the work of the Scalability Programme."

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/computing/our-facilities/supercomputer

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GEFS ensemble mean is definitely worse than 18z. The operational was on the warm side though.

Looks basically the same here. We were on the outside looking in on the operational anyway.

[Blizzard777]

Everyone here needs a 10.77 Evaluation.

That should get Dewey some clients 

[Phil]

What does it mean? It means we need to privatize it.

 

Obviously the government can't handle it (like everything else) so turn it over to the people who can.

Pretty much this. Funny how almost everything that should be publicly funded in the US is privatized, yet everything that should be privatized is publicly funded.

[ShawniganLake]

The grand total

 

Only a few inches up this way. I’ll take my chances with the gfs.