Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GFS is just in love with this solution of just spinning the low right off shore until it dissipates. 

Yeah been showing that sit a spin action for many runs now. Interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly just want something for PDX, and the GFS and EURO look okay for that.

 

I'm more about the stats for posterity. A 34/29 day with 4" of snow is fine, but an airmass that verifies at -14C 850mb temps with a 25/12 day would pump me up a lot more. If SLE measures an 850mb temp below -10C I will be happy. 

[GobBluth]

definitely nothing that will scoot the low level cold air out of here through day 10

[Deweydog]

GFS has no clue right now. Remember last week when it showed a stormy day for this Friday and the other models were actually dry that day? Goofy. I am planning on Friday being dry and beautiful.

Dude that was last Friday. You can’t expect a model to be accurate a week out!

 

Oh, wait...

[TT-SEA]

The truth comes out!

Holy crap. I had no idea.

 

He only cares about Portland? Whaaaaaaat?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS has no clue right now. Remember last week when it showed a stormy day for this Friday and the other models were actually dry that day? Goofy. I am planning on Friday being dry and beautiful.

 

You are saying we should trust the GFS?

[Timmy Supercell]

I agree on the wet snow. Looks more pretty when everything is plastered.

 

It's also good for enjoying a nice downtown walk out there when the ground just looks like it rained. Big flakes coming down, best for both parties

[Esquimalt]

Can someone please post the Kuchera total snowfall?

[North_County]

High temps in the low-mid teens on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the single digits.

 

Seattle bottoms out at a brutal 6 degrees Wednesday morning, and that's among the warmer temps.

 

I have a hard time believing the -10F shown for Abbotsford and Langley. Even adding 10F to that would still qualify as historic.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Uncle still delivers. It's all going to depend on the track of the low. Most areas should at least see snow before any changeover to ice. The potential is there for area(s) to get clobbered.

 

[Requiem]

Holy crap. I had no idea.

 

He only cares about Portland? Whaaaaaaat?

 

I mean, you only care about Seattle (To be specific, North Bend), no difference there. I want everyone to be hammered, but I mean everyone.

[Winterdog]

Having a nice little grapple/ hail shower. Ground getting white

[Winterdog]

Having a nice little grapple/ hail shower. Ground getting white

[TT-SEA]

I mean, you only care about Seattle (To be specific, North Bend), no difference there. I want everyone to be hammered, but I mean everyone.

 

 

Just teasing you... we all basically just care about what happens in our area.

 

Except one particular person who has taken on the burden of being personally responsible for every tree within a 500 mile radius.  

[Esquimalt]

Here's through next Saturday morning...

 

Beautiful. So much potential

[Timmy Supercell]

Here's through next Saturday morning...

 

 

If central Deschutes county is 30-40" that should translate to at least a solid 2 feet for K-Falls... 

[GobBluth]

Beautiful. So much potential

Prelude to 1996 flooding.

[TT-SEA]

You are saying we should trust the GFS?

 

 

I has definitely been winning me over recently.  

 

I would not discount its solution with that low spinning offshore next week.    I swear it showed the Friday storm for about 5 days before any other model.   I was sure it would blink.   I almost did a post comparing it to the ECMWF and was going to mock the GFS.    And yet it will be coming in just like it showed... the only difference is that there will be a little less cold air available at the time than it showed originally.

[El_Nina]

It's also good for enjoying a nice downtown walk out there when the ground just looks like it rained. Big flakes coming down, best for both parties

That's good so you dont have to chain up during your walk.

[Deweydog]

27 years ago today it snowed a lot at my house. The next day I put my sweet ride in the ditch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here's through next Saturday morning...

 

The Gorge east winds are going to be hungry next week.

[Timmy Supercell]

That's good so you dont have to chain up during your walk.

 

Keeps down the number of crazy drivers we have in town as well.

[Requiem]

I think, to be honest, that all areas maybe north of Salem have a very decent chance next week. Portland has the east winds to help it out...

[TT-SEA]

Snowing on highway 18 now... starting here as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[GHweatherChris]

Here it is!

 

[SeanNyberg]

Snowing on Hobart road out of Issaquah.

[El_Nina]

Snowing on highway 18 now... starting here as well.

Happy Hemlocks!

[Perturbed Member]

I has definitely been winning me over recently.  

 

I would not discount its solution with that low spinning offshore next week.    I swear it showed the Friday storm for about 5 days before any other model.   I was sure it would blink.   I almost did a post comparing it to the ECMWF and was going to mock the GFS.    And yet it will be coming in just like it showed... the only difference is that there will be a little less cold air available at the time than it showed originally.

 

The new GFS is certainly impressing with this pattern so far but do we have any actual objective measures on its performance relative to the ECMWF since the FV3 went live?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3" of snow at Cape Blanco over the next 2 weeks...that is all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like by the 14th the operational is about 1C warmer than the mean at PDX. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going to be a long 4-5 hours until we start seeing some of the first 00z runs come in. Gonna be a long night!

[Blizzard777]

Yep i think i am heading to my cabin a few days. Looks like 35 below there is possible.

Boil water and launch into air!!! 

bucket list item for me

[Deweydog]

Here it is!

 

Absolute. Brilliance.

[Perturbed Member]

 

Tiger Orgasm.png

 

GFS feels that the east winds will be quite unkind to the east PDX metro. Way less snow than basically anywhere else. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3" of snow at Cape Blanco over the next 2 weeks...that is all.

 

Have you ever been to Cape Blanco?

[Omegaraptor]

I’ll be heading up to Mt Hood Meadows soon. Will report on conditions if I can

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest ensemble mean yet at PDX by a whisker. -13.0C

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Have you ever been to Cape Blanco?

 

One of my favorite places to go.  Been twice.  I think it's only had measurable snow a handful of times.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coldest ensemble mean yet at PDX by a whisker. -13.0C

 

Mean even bottoms out at -10C here.  That's almost unheard of.