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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z.

 

There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning...

 

yI9ouOJ.png

18z was a throwback to the 1920’s. 00z is more in line with the 2020’s.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I believe the dry east winds will significantly decrease the snow amounts across Puget Sound unfortunately. The Hood Canal and eastern slopes of the Olympics will be buried though.

It's really a coin toss. There have been a few events like this that had a light forecasted snow for the eastern puget sound and they ended up getting a big snow. It's going to be watch the radar deal before we know for sure unfortunately.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z.

 

There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning...

 

yI9ouOJ.png

Models having a hard time with this...very hard. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, the temps have been bouncing big time with each run. Like Matt said...18z on Sunday!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z.

 

There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning...

 

yI9ouOJ.png

 

Runs are going to waffle, not concerned.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It's really a coin toss. There have been a few events like this that had a light forecasted snow for the eastern puget sound and they ended up getting a big snow. It's going to be watch the radar deal before we know for sure unfortunately.

That’s the weird thing, the radar would show snow falling, but the dry air eats it all up so it looks kind of deceiving.

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That spinning ULL pattern is not going to do it. It just runs out moisture.

 

I'll take a couple inches of snow and tons of cold air pouring west of the Cascades. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not too bad by the end of the week...

 

1579316400-bNv7VQghxss.png

 

Only 7"

 

Mother nature is such a cruel bitchh /s

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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On Saturday 516 thickness gets to PDX again and the low is trying to regenerate. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Vancouver Island and Olympic Peninsula appear to be the big winners with the run, the low just hangs out there pushing in moisture but remaining well positioned to continue to draw in Arctic air.

I was going to ask you how Victoria would do in such a setup.  Wouldn't the north easterly outflow help us? 

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That spinning ULL pattern is not going to do it. It just runs out moisture.

2 things needs to happen I think. 

 

1) It needs a more aggressive push inland. 

2) The High pressure sitting North and NE needs to get weaker. As it stands right now, it has been very consistent. 

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Remember, EURO has been showing a radically different track and progression for the midweek system. We'll see what happens, but even in this scenario west metro gets quite a bit.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Wonder if the eastern slopes of the coast range can provide enough lift from the upslope to make much difference.

Maybe, but I think the dry air in conjunction with the lack of isentropic lift, etc. in general is more the issue. Easterly flow is fairly low level at that point so if we pick up some decent dynamics precip won’t be a huge issue, at least in my opinion.

 

We’ll know more by this time Tuesday.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Now that I have given up on an upper level blast and faced the facts, I am getting excited about this next week. Should be a fun ride. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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