Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

While the GFS was alright, with some weird things not seen on some other models-- the ICON, which is definitely not the best model, is MUCH better. Best it has ever been for the entirety of the past two weeks.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM says f*ck you PDX on Tuesday

 

 

It does the same up here, just a hundred miles or to the SW and we both win.

[SnarkyGoblin]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/emlmha/so_were_still_two_days_away_from_the_snow_right/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

 

Posted 50 mins ago. The cat is really out of the bag now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A big portion of that snow is now actually coming from the surface low on Tuesday instead of the anemic ULL. Real curious now to see what the euro does with this.

Yeah, really interested to see if EURO backs off all the snow it showed.

[The Swamp]

I got a feeling....that tonight’s gonna be a good night, that tonight’s gonna be aaa goo goo night.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GFS is setting up things up for a backdoor blast and extended cold in the long range.

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/emlmha/so_were_still_two_days_away_from_the_snow_right/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

 

Posted 50 mins ago. The cat is really out of the bag now.

The bananas always get like that, especially because they are dirt cheap.

[runninthruda206]

This doesn't look too bad for Sunday potential.

 

 

We must take the lowest possible solution and run!

[GHweatherChris]

Ok Tim.

I look at the plateful maps for every system.

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully the GFS ensembles cave in the long range.

[Deweydog]

Do bananas help make it snow?

[seattleweatherguy]

An hour away from the euro

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do bananas help make it snow?

30000lbs of Bananas!

[jakerepp]

Gonna be all kinds of back and forth until we get there I guess.

Buckle up!

[Requiem]

GEM, on the contrary to the GFS, is actually stronger and further north. Valley gets rain sadly but PDX gets a big snowstorm with east winds. Weird how different models are for that thing...

[Deweydog]

30000lbs of Bananas!

Gonna need a bigger boat.

[AJ1013]

00z GFS is a solid improvement for me

[umadbro]

GEM, on the contrary to the GFS, is actually stronger and further north. Valley gets rain sadly but PDX gets a big snowstorm with east winds. Weird how different models are for that thing...

Tigerwoodslibedo has locked this in

[The Swamp]

GEM, on the contrary to the GFS, is actually stronger and further north. Valley gets rain sadly but PDX gets a big snowstorm with east winds. Weird how different models are for that thing...

It all depends on how far south the really cold air gets. No one knows how the moisture coming in off the ocean is going interact with the cold and easterly gradients. Listen to Dewey. Some of the models have a low that doesn’t have a lot of lift and that gets shredded by dry East wind. Good news is every run is different. GOLU = GO out look up. Do this Sunday through Friday for answers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean dropped 2C at PDX this run.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GEM continues to look awful, delayed start and early end to the event. Not sure how much faith to put into this model since it's been all over the place.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Real view not a model.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM lol

[Deweydog]

Real view not a model.

F*ck that!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Real view not a model.

Get'n real!

[wxmet]

Low locations by 10PM Thursday...

 

 

Good placement but the details are really in the motion and orientation of the storm that are gonna determine how much precipitation we're going to get. 

[bainbridgekid]

I'm not sure the Japanese are aware the Cascades or Rockies exist.

 

4 PM on Sunday. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble improvement. 

[Deweydog]

GEM lol

Coming soon to a GFS and Euro near you!

[MossMan]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely a good night to watch from dusk till dawn.

[Omegaraptor]

Ensemble improvement. 

 

Pleased to say that the PDX ensemble mean gets below -11ºC again at the 850mb level. The mean also skirts -10ºC on the 14th and the operational is actually a bit of a warm outlier then.

[TT-SEA]

Low locations by 10PM Thursday...

 

 

Lows that spin in the same place for 3 days become quite boring... not the same as tracking the path of a dynamic low racing inland like what we have on Sunday.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM lol

 

The GEM operational has been running quite a bit warmer than its ensembles.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Lows that spin in the same place for 3 days become quite boring... not the same as tracking the path of a dynamic low racing inland like what we have on Sunday.

 

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow from one of those meandering lows last year?

[Esquimalt]

The GEM operational has been running quite a bit warmer than its ensembles.

Gfs ensembles are improving up here for snowfall on both Sunday and mid week. Did you see the track map Hawkstwelve posted earlier? Most of those tracks are perfect for us

[AJ1013]

Uh, the GFS now has a subfreezing high in Brownsville, TX (26N on the gulf). That’s not going to happen.

[bainbridgekid]

Lows that spin in the same place for 3 days become quite boring... not the same as tracking the path of a dynamic low racing inland like what we have on Sunday.

Not when they toss up 3 days of snow.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow from one of those meandering lows last year?

 

No. 

 

As was discussed today... that was a very dynamic AR scenario overriding cold air.   That is how our biggest snowstorms happen here.