Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Many times. It quite common.

 

Depends on the direction of the low after it passes.

 

Here is the low on Sunday evening during the c-zone...

 

 

 

That is SW flow pushing the c-zone northward.

 

When the low is farther south (like over Spokane) then the c-zone remains stationary east to west.

 

When the low is even farther south like in SE WA then the NW flow wins out and the c-zone ends up in southern King County.

Discounting the presence of cold air sinking south, you are 100% correct.

[GHweatherChris]

Not really... east wind is in charge.

 

Here is that 3-hour period. Some snow... but not that much.

 

Shifted south.

[Requiem]

How?

 

Sorry, was being a bit facetious, they really aren't horrible. I think that they may bounce back, we've seen it before (last year for example up in the Sound). If anything it'll be an active week.

[Weather1011]

More Rush lyrics because I'm on my 3rd glass of Macallan 12 year...and, yeah...

 

Tim represents the oaks. The rest of you are the maples.

 

 

There is unrest in the forest

There is trouble with the trees

For the maples want more sunlight

And the oaks ignore their pleas

The trouble with the maples

And they're quite convinced they're right

They say the oaks are just too lofty

And they grab up all the light

But the oaks can't help their feelings

If they like the way they're made

And they wonder why the maples

Can't be happy in their shade?

Trees

Not even rush will save the models for y'all

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Are we close to the 2005, 2011 pantheon yet?

[TacomaWaWx]

Sorry, was being a bit facetious, they really aren't horrible. I think that they may bounce back, we've seen it before (last year for example up in the Sound). If anything it'll be an active week.

This is just another down in the crazy roller coaster ride. This happened in February here as well you are correct. Maybe even closer to the event than this.

[Requiem]

Are we close to the 2005, 2011 pantheon yet?

 

If I recall 2011 did something similar-- showed amazing runs, pulled back completely, and then actually bounced back ever so slightly enough to give the lowlands a little tease.

[Weather1011]

Honestly tho to look at this from a positive perspective is we get our winter fix for a few days and can look towards higher sun angles and warmer days

[luvssnow_spokane]

Are we close to the 2005, 2011 pantheon yet?

Very!! one more day and we will have arrived.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX switches to rain pretty fast on this run but the initial snow band drops a lot of accumulation quickly. Subtract about 1 phantom inch of snow from Monday. Could be worse. Hopefully models stop pulling back on the cold. Any warmer than this and it'll risk turning into a rain event here. 

 

[TT-SEA]

When has this ever happened?

 

 

There was a c-zone just on Wednesday that started out in my area and moved north during the day.   

 

It would be a different story if that low took a little more southerly trajectory and continued off to the SE.   But the low is taking the northerly path because its following the cold air boundary and that cold air is not in a hurry to move south at all.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is just another down in the crazy roller coaster ride. This happened in February here as well you are correct. Maybe even closer to the event than this.

NOT this close though... This is very different, not every model was tanking just a few. This is not anything like last FEB of last year and historically this kind of trend does not get better, but we shall see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next Thursday is just a chilly raw, rainy day.

 

[Cloud]

It's in the mid 30's by 4AM Thursday for W. WA. Then stays in the mid to upper 30's into Friday morning. 

[Weather1011]

Next Thursday is just a chilly raw, rainy day.

 

Nothing wrong with that! Better then torching right ?!?!

[Front Ranger]

There was a c-zone just on Wednesday that started out in my area and moved north during the day.

 

It would be a different story if that low took a little more southerly trajectory and continued off to the SE. But the low is taking the northerly path because its following the cold air boundary and that cold air is not in a hurry to move south at all.

So... your call is for the CZ in this case to drift north and then dissipate?

 

Noted.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF show temps near 40 in Seattle already by Thursday.     

 

That is way warmer than the 12Z run... which was way warmer than the previous 00Z run.

[TacomaWaWx]

NOT this close though... This is very different, not every model was tanking just a few. This is not anything like last FEB.

I just read the last few January 2019 pages a week or so ago. Was lots of groaning and complaining going on. I meant more everyone freaking out being depressed similar to February 2019 when there was details people didn't like.

[Weiner Warrior]

Someone make a cash bet. Lets start a pool. $5 each

[luvssnow_spokane]

Next Thursday is just a chilly raw, rainy day.

 

[Weather1011]

I found Jim and Rob they told me to pass a message along, They have moved in together in a one bedroom apartment to a much snowier climate and said peace out to the Wet coast. You will hear from them sometime tomorrow after they are done shoveling.

[TT-SEA]

So... your call is for the CZ in this case to drift north and then dissipate?

 

Noted.

 

I said that I completely understand why the ECMWF is showing that solution and I have seen it happen many, many times.    The GFS is more aggressive with the cold and shows it shifting way south.

 

The ECMWF has been trending north with the c-zone as well.   That is something to consider when we are 48 hours out.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can already tell I'm not going to like the east wind in the winter in Maple Valley versus lack thereof in Carnation.

EAST winds SUCK! They have ruined at least a half dozen snow events in the 15 years I have lived here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE may never see a sub -10C 850mb temp in January again. 

[Cloud]

ECMWF show temps near 40 in Seattle already by Thursday.     

 

That is way warmer than the 12Z run... which was way warmer than the previous 00Z run.

Yup and it stays pretty much high 30s to near 40 into Sat. 

 

This thing is turning into a wimp and fairly quickly. Ouch. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can already tell I'm not going to like the east wind in the winter in Maple Valley versus lack thereof in Carnation.

 

Although in this instance even Carnation is affected.

[Front Ranger]

SLE may never see a sub -10C 850mb temp in January again.

The Pinnacle of Posts for tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Discounting the presence of cold air sinking south, you are 100% correct.

 

 

The ECMWF is of course accounting for the cold air.   It knows its there.   It just does not think it will be rushing south.  

 

You are not finding some clue that the ECMWF forgot... it shows the north wind.  

 

Maybe its wrong.   Its happened before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Pinnacle of Posts for tonight.

 

Hey it worked for TWL last February. 

[liquidsnow]

A bust of massive proportion.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nothing wrong with that! Better then torching right ?!?!

Yeah 36 degree rain is so exciting! I am sure everyone in Portland will get out and enjoy it.  

[Front Ranger]

Hey it worked for TWL last February.

You haven't seen any interesting weather since 1996? Golden.

[Weather1011]

[fubario]

I found Jim and Rob they told me to pass a message along, They have moved in together in a one bedroom apartment to a much snowier climate and said peace out to the Wet coast. You will hear from them sometime tomorrow after they are done shoveling.

 

Fly by night, away from here

Change my life again

Fly by night, goodbye my dear

My ship isn't coming and I just can't pretend

 

Fly By Night

[Omegaraptor]

I wouldn’t be shocked at all if there was a last minute correction back to some of the colder solutions from a few days ago. Plenty of moving parts regionally within an evolving larger scale system state.

Everyone get down on your knees and pray.

[TT-SEA]

So... your call is for the CZ in this case to drift north and then dissipate?

 

Noted.

 

 

Side note... I never made a forecast.   I was reporting what the ECMWF showed and explained why it was showing what it did.   It makes sense to me.   Its not just randomly deciding the c-zone will move north this time.   

 

You asked if a c-zone has ever moved north before.   I said it happens all the time.   I am surprised you did not know that actually.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yeah 36 degree rain is so exciting! I am sure everyone in Portland will get out and enjoy it.  

 

Look on the bright side. It’s soon to be 50 degree rain. Much more comfortable.

[Weather1011]

Everyone get down on your knees and pray.

I saw get down on your knees and was getting very worried for a second..

[Requiem]

Guess EURO has PDX relying more on low-level cold through Gorge outflow...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You haven't seen any interesting weather since 1996? Golden.

 

Haven't seen an 850mb temp below -10C at SLE in my lifetime...And I FEEL old.