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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the disturbance of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you do

I've been lurking here for years and rarely post, but let me just say this about the ridiculous Tim criticism. 1) You've all added about 100x more attention and energy to these "negative" posts than t

With the event getting closer and more new people joining I thought this might be a good time to share some links I've gathered over the years to help track, observe, report, etc. on various things. I

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Some uber serious cold air in play with this.  Nice run!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Great run, though those exact details at play would be somewhat sad for the lower elevations of the Portland metro (warm-nosed for the entire event). But the fact that we're seeing these kinds of systems show up in multiple runs couldn't be more exciting.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Great run, though those exact details at play would be somewhat sad for the lower elevations of the Portland metro (warm-nosed for the entire event). But the fact that we're seeing these kinds of systems show up in multiple runs couldn't be more exciting.

PDX gets snow Day 11-12

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PDX gets snow Day 11-12

 

Yeah, not too much, but it's snow nonetheless!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Yeah, not too much, but it's snow nonetheless!

No worries though, we're focusing too much on details right now because it's fun. 

 

But the overall takeaway is this: Timing has gone up, watch for the continued trend and it should benefit PDX as well. It's also super cold so there are a loads of potential.

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No worries though, we're focusing too much on details right now because it's fun. 

 

But the overall takeaway is this: Timing has gone up, watch for the continued trend and it should benefit PDX as well. It's also super cold so there are a loads of potential.

 

The cold in the Columbia Basin is ridiculous this run. Can't imagine how frigid the easterlies would be in that situation.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Ahahahaha GFS shows yet another region-wide shot of snow among more frigid easterlies. No way in heck this isn't some insane cold outlier or I'm going to personally request to talk to Dome Buster's NWS contact.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Ahahahaha GFS shows yet another region-wide shot of snow among more frigid easterlies. No way in heck this isn't some insane cold outlier or I'm going to personally request to talk to Dome Buster's NWS contact.

As Snow Wizard said the block will pay off at some point.   Hoping this is it!! 

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Ahahahaha GFS shows yet another region-wide shot of snow among more frigid easterlies. No way in heck this isn't some insane cold outlier or I'm going to personally request to talk to Dome Buster's NWS contact.

There will be pull back on the 12z. Last night's 06z showed ridiculous cold as well and the 12z was more realistic. 

One of the main reason I stay up for the 06z is because of its eye-candy. lol

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There will be pull back on the 12z. Last night's 06z showed ridiculous cold as well and the 12z was more realistic. 

One of the main reason I stay up for the 06z is because of its eye-candy. lol

It does leave you with a good feeling doesn’t it  :lol:

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850mb ensembles are a slight touch behind 00z GEFS. Block is just a bit too far west. Obviously the big blast beyond Day 8 is an outlier, but it does show what is possible IF the block is setup just right.

Let see how this trends, it's looking like an outlier but it could also be the case of it leading the way. 

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6z GFS Ensembles

Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

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Looks fun! ❄️

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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This is going to be good. I have felt it for many weeks now. You can ask my friend that I have been texting all season about how big this winter is going to be. He knows when I'm serious.

Send me his number... I need to verify your story.

 

This changes everything.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS definitely shows a retrogression signal in the 13-15 day range.   Lets see if it stays consistent this time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow... The 06z was an incredible run. It shows 1 inch/hour rates for 12 hours around D10 for Western WA and we end up with around 2ft of snow when all is said and done. That's then followed by bitterly cold air. In fact, our last day with a high above freezing is D8... After that, highs remains below freezing (sometimes way below freezing) through the end of the run.

 

Obviously that is an extreme solution but it just goes to show the potential this pattern has to put up impressive snow totals if things go right.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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