Jump to content

Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Recommended Posts

06z GFS was totally nuts. 12z was great too. The ensembles are pretty legit too. Now that we have the models actually showing something decent we have Tim dumping cold water on everyone. Come on dude, let us enjoy these runs. I think we all know it is not actually going to happen. 

 

:lol:

 

I am just looking for agreement.   We have one model right now within 10 days... might be the leader.   Time will tell.

 

Being analytical is sure better than the mopey, depressing, baseless crap other people post on here all the time.   If my analysis is worthless then it should have no effect on your enjoyment.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol:

 

I am just looking for agreement.   We have one model right now within 10 days... might be the leader.   Time will tell.

 

Being analytical is sure better than the mopey, depressing, baseless crap other people post on here all the time.   If my analysis is worthless then it should have no effect on your enjoyment.    ;)

 

I read back onto the last page and you haven't been too negative today.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the GFS ensemble day 11-16 mean.

 

81684244_10220366354166768_8089127145994

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder why Tim didn't post this map with his day 9 mean? Hmm...

 

 

Well... it was only out through 312 hours at the time.     :rolleyes:

 

Censorship police in full force.   I obviously know nothing... so my posts should have no effect on anyone.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol:

 

I am just looking for agreement.   We have one model right now within 10 days... might be the leader.   Time will tell.

 

Being analytical is sure better than the mopey, depressing, baseless crap other people post on here all the time.   If my analysis is worthless then it should have no effect on your enjoyment.    ;)

I agree with this, we really need to see agreement in the models inside day 10. Without that it does not give me enough confidence to really jump on board. To be honest I really I want to have all the models agreeing inside day 7 to even believe what is being shown. It is a wait and see. Some really amazing runs recently though! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh simmer down there, tiger. No one is trying to censor you... Just poking some fun.

 

Wouldn't even matter if they were. You've made it abundantly clear that "police force" won't affect your posting/trolling style so there is no point in even trying. Keep on keepin on.

 

If we get model agreement... I will be fully on board.   

 

That appears to be really important to some on here.   They love when the cautious skeptic is convinced.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I'm not that far from you.  You get more easterlies than I do, just a few miles away.  I've had one good snowfall (4.5" in '17)  since '08 but nothing more.  Several 1-3" amounts).  Springwater Rd seems to be a line for good gorge influence.  Those 1-2 degree colder temps has meant the difference.  South of there the wind really drops off and temps are a bit more moderated.

 

I think highway 212 is a great dividing line for the warm nose. If anything it is slightly north of the real boundary.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If people stopped complaining about Tim he eventually wouldn’t know what to do with himself. It gives him life energy.

 

Hope everyone’s 2020 is going well so far!

BS.

 

It felt good to get positive feedback the other day.

 

Better than this crap which is actually frustrating.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the year end summary for SLE. 2019 ended up slightly above normal, but still the coolest year since 2012. No top 10 warm months for the first time since 2012. On top of that 2 top 10 cold months. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Much weaker ridge over us vs. the 12z yesterday at HR120.

Downstream block is a little weaker... so trough offshore is less deep... and ridge over the west is weaker.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the year end summary for SLE. 2019 ended up slightly above normal, but still the coolest year since 2012. No top 10 warm months for the first time since 2012. On top of that 2 top 10 cold months.

 

I wonder. How. pDX ranked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are loosing the Euro.

 

Wait, we had the Euro?

 

tumblr_inline_o58r6dmSfe1suaed2_500.gif

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2019 was much warmer at PDX compared to historical average than SLE. 

Despite the 3rd coldest October and Februaries. PDX had 3 top 10 warm months. April, May, and August. 

 

It was the 14th warmest year on record (out of 79) compared to 36th warmest at SLE (Out of 128).

 

It was much cooler than 2018 over, but not nearly as cool as 2017 at PDX.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice showery weather today! 

 

Earlier when I randomly woke up close to 5am there was a big downpour here. Seemed to have been pretty localized as the airport has only been reporting light rain up to now.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Block is much weaker and further East and heights in Alaska are much lower than the GFS at hour 192. Not a good run.

  • Downvote 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#trendingeast

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF definitely not on board with the big snow event around day 9.    Too much onshore flow.   This is fairly similar to the 12Z GEM.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Model battle.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF definitely not on board with the big snow event around day 9. Too much onshore flow. This is fairly similar to the 12Z GEM.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

That is an ugly map right there.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 177

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 177

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

    3. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 1859

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...