Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still an improvement over previous EURO runs. 

[TT-SEA]

2019 was much warmer at PDX compared to historical average than SLE. 

Despite the 3rd coldest October and Februaries. PDX had 3 top 10 warm months. April, May, and August. 

 

It was the 14th warmest year on record (out of 79) compared to 36th warmest at SLE (Out of 128).

 

It was much cooler than 2018 over, but not nearly as cool as 2017 at PDX.

 

 

First drier than normal year at the Cedar Lake station near me since 2013!

 

81.80 inches for the year there.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... still a ways to go.   But the EPS showed the cold air arriving in the 13-15 day period so that might be the time to watch.

 

[TT-SEA]

Mountains still get plastered. Snoqualmie gets close to 6ft by D10.

 

I hope it works out this time.   2 or 3 weeks ago... I told my son they would have 4+ feet of snow by New Years.  Likely related to heavily inflated 10-day total snowfall maps.   The reality is that they are barely open right now.    He does not believe anything I say in terms of mountain snow until it actually happens.

[van city]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... still a ways to go.   But the EPS showed the cold air arriving in the 13-15 day period so that might be the time to watch.

 

Time to move on to the consistently consistent EPS.

[MossMan]

I hope it works out this time.   2 or 3 weeks ago... I told my son they would have 4+ feet of snow by New Years.  Likely related to heavily inflated 10-day total snowfall maps.   The reality is that they are barely open right now.    He does not believe anything I say in terms of mountain snow until it actually happens.

Looks less than inviting up at Stevens...

[The Swamp]

the blocking in the Pacific has been a total mess for some time now

 

finally got some ridging in the east and the se and the ridge to our west can't get it's act together

[Timmy Supercell]

2019 was much warmer at PDX compared to historical average than SLE. 

Despite the 3rd coldest October and Februaries. PDX had 3 top 10 warm months. April, May, and August. 

 

It was the 14th warmest year on record (out of 79) compared to 36th warmest at SLE (Out of 128).

 

It was much cooler than 2018 over, but not nearly as cool as 2017 at PDX.

 

I haven't yet averaged all of 2019 for KLMT but seemed like most of the year for me was not overly warm. Even had some decent east side rainfall events in April and May, the middle of those months featured 24+ hour straight rains on a few dates. Fall was dry though.

 

It seemed toasty that first half of May (I was actually in Wilsonville from 04/20 > 05/12, but when I returned to K-Falls it significantly cooled again for 2 weeks).

No real heatwaves this year, my maximum temperature I think was 94 degrees and didn't break 90 more than 10 times in a span of 3 months. Locals commented how much hotter summers were in years like 2014 or say in the late 90's.

[Deweydog]

Toasty out this morning!

 

MLK

[Timmy Supercell]

Toasty out this morning!

 

MLK

 

01/20!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

the blocking in the Pacific has been a total mess for some time now

 

finally got some ridging in the east and the se and the ridge to our west can't get it's act together

 

...yet 

[TT-SEA]

...yet

I hate to be the extrapolater guy... but the ECMWF loop makes me think it's about to get much better after day 10. I expect the EPS will show that.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 8...

 

[AbbyJr]

 

I am just looking for agreement. We have one model right now within 10 days... might be the leader. Time will tell.

 

Being analytical is sure better than the mopey, depressing, baseless crap other people post on here all the time. If my analysis is worthless then it should have no effect on your enjoyment.

I fully agree. We need to see other models get on board before we get too excited. That said, the the GFS has been fairly consistent since yesterday's 06Z and the ensembles look really good. I recall the EPS led the way last February and was on its own until closer to the event. At this point we can fantasize and hope but best to keep expectations to a minimum unless you enjoy being super disappointed.

 

Happy new year everyone from Canada.

[Deweydog]

Anyone have any big resolutions for the new year?

[snow_wizard]

Still an improvement over previous EURO runs. 

 

Yeah...the higher latitudes start to get constipated on this run.  Day 10 looks like the GOA ridge is about to merge with the high latitudes positive height anoms.  Besides the last EPS run was the best yet anyway.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 9...

 

 

 

12Z GFS at the same time...

 

[snow_wizard]

I fully agree. We need to see other models get on board before we get too excited. That said, the the GFS has been fairly consistent since yesterday's 06Z and the ensembles look really good. I recall the EPS led the way last February and was on its own until closer to the event. At this point we can fantasize and hope but best to keep expectations to a minimum unless you enjoy being super disappointed.

 

Happy new year everyone from Canada.

 

The big picture continues to look good.  At this point we need to look at generalities more than anything.  This coming MJO wave is going to be the kicker for the whole thing.  I am going to gloat when this happens because people have refused to believe me all along.

[MossMan]

Anyone have any big resolutions for the new year?

Not be premature with telling everyone of the massive snow and cold that might or might not happen.

[jakerepp]

Not be premature with telling everyone of the massive snow and cold that might or might not happen.

So I should go return that snowblower?

[TT-SEA]

Volunteer time and money to do anything I can to help Republicans win in November.

 

I still need the number of your friend. I need to know if you have really been serious in your texts to him about this winter. That would truly be a game changer. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anyone have any big resolutions for the new year?

 

Giving up Coca Cola.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is a bit better at day 9 than the 0z was at the same time.  That's all the far it has gone so far.

[Timmy Supercell]

 

Tiger Orgasm.png

 

 

Random dome over my place. 

[Deweydog]

Not be premature with telling everyone of the massive snow and cold that might or might not happen.

Me too. Luckily I made sure and told an s-ton of people yesterday prior to cold (frozen???) turkey this morning.

[snow_wizard]

It blows my mind how we can still have Debbie Downers on here in light of the way things are unfolding.  Look at more than just the models!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10...

 

 

 

We will see where it goes from here.    Probably gets better.

[TT-SEA]

It blows my mind how we can still have Debbie Downers on here in light of the way things are unfolding.  Look at more than just the models!

 

 

Who cares.   Stop demanding compliance.   We have been through this before... many know its best to be skeptical.   

 

I feel compelled to remind you that you have had many meltdowns after demanding compliance in the past.    

[OysterPrintout]

can we move the trump-humping to the circlejerk of a politics forum on this site or possibly facebook either is fine.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 13... getting better as expected.   

 

Now it needs to get inside day 10.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Anyone have any big resolutions for the new year?

 

Eventually get a darn weather station. But since we're looking at property in other cities, probably first get situated at a new house before installing.

 

New cameras, and maybe expand on investments.

 

Giving up Coca Cola.

 

So, Pepsi now I guess 

For me it's all soda. Haven't had any of it in a few years.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still feel like there's a good chance it turns better for us eventually. Promising signs on the models still in the LR. I'd still need to see this pattern move up in time in the models before getting too excited.

[snow_wizard]

EPS is heading in a VERY good direction!  The flat GOA ridge stands up on end a bit down the road.  Looks great.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is close to being great in the 13-15 day period... but appears to have shifted a little north and east with the really cold air compared to the 00Z run.

 

Waiting for the 10-15 map to update.

[GHweatherChris]

Anyone have any big resolutions for the new year?

Have our business going.

[Deweydog]

It blows my mind how we can still have Debbie Downers on here in light of the way things are unfolding. Look at more than just the models!

Yeah, f*ck those guys!!!

 

Best case, and most realistic, scenario is sub-500 thicknesses over Covington on MLK as Trump resurrects him in a prime time event so he can reassassinate him in a masterful election year spectacle to electrify his base.

[snow_wizard]

Still feel like there's a good chance it turns better for us eventually. Promising signs on the models still in the LR. I'd still need to see this pattern move up in time in the models before getting too excited.

 

Is anyone hearing me?  I seriously wonder if my posts are showing up or not.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

[TT-SEA]

Is anyone hearing me?  I seriously wonder if my posts are showing up or not.

 

Not to be repetitive... but you are demanding compliance.    We have been down this road before and it did not work out well.   People will wait and see.