2020 - 2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Thunder98]

Still seeing shower activity.

[Anti Marine Layer]

We might actually have a winter this year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

One week since the Winter Solstice today.

[AquariusRadar]

16 ft. of snow at Tahoe. Beginning to doubt the ENSO/La Nina  concept of "less precipitation during La  Nina" in California. Summary of storm totals so far in this original LA Times article Sierra Snow

https://www.yahoo.com/news/photos-record-snowfall-blankets-sierra-225848713.html

[Anti Marine Layer]

It was La Nina-like in November 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, AquariusRadar said:

16 ft. of snow at Tahoe. Beginning to doubt the ENSO/La Nina  concept of "less precipitation during La  Nina" in California. Summary of storm totals so far in this original LA Times article Sierra Snow

https://www.yahoo.com/news/photos-record-snowfall-blankets-sierra-225848713.html

Hopefully it eases our drought and water use restrictions. 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

ENSO status has always been a general tendency, not an absolute law, for how much rain we get. 2017-2018 was another La Niña winter that produced plenty of soakers, while even the “Godzilla El Niño” of 2015-2016 didn’t bring much rain as we were still parked under the Triple R. (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge)

[Anti Marine Layer]

Got a very light shower this morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not the best weather conditions for wicked witches with green skin this week.

[Reg]

Cold and gloomy today, just past noon and it's only 48F.

I only received 0.14" yesterday, which I verified with my manual gauge is indeed the correct total. One of the lowest totals in all of my part of Riverside County. 0.01" since midnight today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Reg said:

Cold and gloomy today, just past noon and it's only 48F.

I only received 0.14" yesterday, which I verified with my manual gauge is indeed the correct total. One of the lowest totals in all of my part of Riverside County. 0.01" since midnight today.

Just the way you like it

[Thunder98]

50 minutes ago, Pn1ct0g3n said:

ENSO status has always been a general tendency, not an absolute law, for how much rain we get. 2017-2018 was another La Niña winter that produced plenty of soakers, while even the “Godzilla El Niño” of 2015-2016 didn’t bring much rain as we were still parked under the Triple R. (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge)

I think you were meant 2018-2019, 2017-2018 was very dry except for March. 

[Reg]

Been quite busy writing stories on WeatherCurrents these past couple of weeks, including today. Most action we've seen in a while. EDIT: Another shower just started after a few dry hours.

Looking forward to the next couple of days, if it pans out.

[Anti Marine Layer]

When there's people walking around in shorts and T-shirts today, I can kind of understand why some people hate warm and sunny weather.

[Anti Marine Layer]

They screwed up mightily on their partly cloudy forecast for today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Climate change may be changing how El Nino and La Nina affect the weather. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wow, that's a lot of clouds.

[Reg]

Even with a few pockets of sunshine this afternoon, temperature never rose higher than 49F.

[Reg]

Now that the warmer storms have been replaced by colder ones over the past 36 hours, finally seeing snow up in the local mountains. Palomar Mountain this evening after being bare up there for a while:

[Anti Marine Layer]

If it's gotta be so cold, why can't it just snow?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not many clouds to start off the day. That is anomalous for this week. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Unfortunately snow levels are rising with the next storm.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Much to Reg's dismay

The sky is not currently gray

But how long will that stay?

[Anti Marine Layer]

How do we get 2-3 inches out of this?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Haven't seen the Tule fog in a while.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain is getting going. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Getting heavier. I assume our other members are being rainshadowed.

[Anti Marine Layer]

That heavier rain lasted only a few minutes

[Anti Marine Layer]

Pn1ct0g3n has nothing to say

Thunder98 has nothing to say

Reg has nothing to say

40 million Californians have nothing to say

[Thunder98]

I only received 0.04” of rain today. I got rain shadowed really badly. Some points today that it even mostly sunny a couple times.

[Reg]

Rain finally started back up here this afternoon but it hasn't been noteworthy, even by Southern California standards. Early in the morning we received 0.05", which had given way to clear skies by mid-morning, until clouds and light rain returned this afternoon, producing another 0.05" so far.

[Reg]

Despite the slow start to our current storm, the National Weather Service remains quite confident in their projected high rainfall totals for the region over the next 48 hours that they increased their projections, rather than lowering them. 3-4" predicted for my area now through Friday. We'll see.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

We have lives, you know. 
 

Pretty steady rain where I’m at. Mostly light with some 5 minute bursts of heavier. A fairly standard cold storm.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Reg said:

Despite the slow start to our current storm, the National Weather Service remains quite confident in their projected high rainfall totals for the region over the next 48 hours that they increased their projections, rather than lowering them. 3-4" predicted for my area now through Friday. We'll see.

Like Pete Carroll is confident that the Seahawks are still a good team.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Normally we don't get evacuation warnings for June Gloom style drizzle/light rain events, but it's the 2020s. Nothing is the same.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Had this in the morning forecast discussion for Los Angeles/Oxnard

Quote

A concern, however, is if the track of the upper low dips too far
southwest and off the coast. Run to run changes in both the EC
and GFS show it digging farther southwest with the GFS furthest.
That would explain the lighter storm totals in the GFS and GEFS.
System could turn out to be a real dud if it does in fact dig too
far SW. But for now will stick with the ensemble solutions and
their precip totals. Storm total amounts have trended higher in
most ensembles and that idea is also followed in the latest WPC
guidance. That would give the LA basin possibly between 2 and 3
inches and up to 8 inches liquid as you go up into the San
Gabriels, and quite a bit of snow above 5000 ft. Moisture supply
is still an issue although ensembles have trended upward some on
the PWATs and now show around an inch over the LA basin. Will need
to strongly consider a flash flood watch for the recent burn
areas of LA County for tonight and tomorrow morning. Hourly rates
in the guidance appear to be right on the edge for producing mud
and debris flows, however more intense precip embedded in the
steadier precip could produce some mud and debris issues for the
recent burn areas there.

 

[Thunder98]

Ha! Ha! If I could not get any rain today, then everybody in SoCal should get busted. Fair game

[Anti Marine Layer]

A measly 0.17" so far, but it's briefly getting heavier. Can the heavy rain last until that stupid Kim Crawford commercial comes on again?

[Reg]

0.18" here, no rain anywhere near here since about two hours ago.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Only 0.25" although it's been coming down for a while. A cutoff low is a weatherman's woe.