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2020 - 2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread


Thunder98

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Onshore flow didn't quite kick in today as previously predicted, ended up still being warm, although not as warm as the past two days (77F here). Every day since last Wednesday has been virtually cloud-free here.

Rain chances have been removed from the forecast all together.

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Season totals to-date are looking rather dismal, although there is still chance for even a semi-redemptive month ahead. With any precipitation through the next four days being very unlikely here, we can examine season totals up through February 28 of past rainy seasons and find ones that were similarly low or even lower.

Downtown L.A. has only 4.39 inches to date. The "average" for them by the end of February is close to 10.5 inches. Quite a deficit. Temecula's season total right now is only 4.02 inches. Since 2000, only two rainy seasons were drier up to this point in Temecula: 2001-02 (2.85" through 2-28-2002) and 2006-07 (2.88" through 2-28-2007). Other similar totals were 4.32" by 2-28-2014, and 4.60" by 2-28-2018. My season total is lower (3.35") as I'm just far enough into the valley away from surrounding foothills and mountains that tend to boost rainfall totals for places like southern Temecula.

Even a single good storm (1-2 inches or higher) or more in March or April could prevent the current season's totals from ending terribly low, but it's practically a roll of the dice. What happens (or doesn't) in March will be very important for our season.

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On 2/24/2021 at 7:15 PM, Reg1992 said:

Season totals to-date are looking rather dismal, although there is still chance for even a semi-redemptive month ahead. With any precipitation through the next four days being very unlikely here, we can examine season totals up through February 28 of past rainy seasons and find ones that were similarly low or even lower.

Downtown L.A. has only 4.39 inches to date. The "average" for them by the end of February is close to 10.5 inches. Quite a deficit. Temecula's season total right now is only 4.02 inches. Since 2000, only two rainy seasons were drier up to this point in Temecula: 2001-02 (2.85" through 2-28-2002) and 2006-07 (2.88" through 2-28-2007). Other similar totals were 4.32" by 2-28-2014, and 4.60" by 2-28-2018. My season total is lower (3.35") as I'm just far enough into the valley away from surrounding foothills and mountains that tend to boost rainfall totals for places like southern Temecula.

Even a single good storm (1-2 inches or higher) or more in March or April could prevent the current season's totals from ending terribly low, but it's practically a roll of the dice. What happens (or doesn't) in March will be very important for our season.

I am really concerned by the number of what I call "ultra dry seasons" that we have experienced since 2000. I define an "ultra dry season" as a rainfall year (July 1 - June 30) in which Downtown Los Angeles receives less than 7" of rain for the season. Between 1877 and 2000, only 1898-99, 1893-94, 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61 fell in that category, although there were several other drier seasons that recorded between 7" and 8". Since 2000, 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2017-18 have been all "ultra dry seasons", and if we don't receive much more rain this season, 2020-21 will become the next "ultra dry season". 

To summarize, we had only 5 "ultra dry seasons" between 1877 and 2000, but we have already had 5 since 2000, and possibly going on 6 if conditions don't improve soon!

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3 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I am really concerned by the number of what I call "ultra dry seasons" that we have experienced since 2000. I define an "ultra dry season" as a rainfall year (July 1 - June 30) in which Downtown Los Angeles receives less than 7" of rain for the season. Between 1877 and 2000, only 1898-99, 1893-94, 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61 fell in that category, although there were several other drier seasons that recorded between 7" and 8". Since 2000, 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2017-18 have been all "ultra dry seasons", and if we don't receive much more rain this season, 2020-21 will become the next "ultra dry season". 

To summarize, we had only 5 "ultra dry seasons" between 1877 and 2000, but we have already had 5 since 2000, and possibly going on 6 if conditions don't improve soon!

Dry seasons have been even drier in the last 20 years, I agree. That applied to wet rainy seasons from the late 1960s through the late 1990s as well, but not since, except for 2004-05. That was our last banner rain year.

42 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Onshore flow kicked in this afternoon with a cool breeze.

Humidity still low here.

Walked out near Bear Creek in the northwestern corner of Murrieta on Monday, at the bottom of the Santa Rosa Plateau. This entire area went up in flames during a wildfire in August 2019. It has begun recovering modestly since then.

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And today in a different area, south of Murrieta. One of the few areas surrounding the valley that has not yet burned in recent years. Some greenery at the bottom, although the creek was completely dry.

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February 2021 was the driest February in at least 20 years in both Temecula and Murrieta, with records being set there. 0.04" in Temecula beat out 0.13" in February 2016; 0.09" in Murrieta beat 0.23" also from February 2016. Only 0.06" at my house.

It's also interesting to see which areas have greened this winter. Low areas near creeks and foothills/mountains to the south and west have had less trouble turning green, despite the lack of rainfall, the storms in late December and late January were enough for those areas. The rest of the landscape, especially fields and hills to the north and east of here, look the same as they did back in September - still golden brown.

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Downtown L.A. recorded no measurable precipitation at all in February 2021 (Trace on two days) - the first completely dry February there since February 1984. Other Februaries with no measurable precipitation in Downtown L.A. included 1964, 1933, 1912, 1900, 1896, and 1885.

San Diego was not quite as unfortunate, with 0.10" recorded there in February 2021. Definitely bottom tier, however February 2016 was drier (0.05") along with a small number of other Februaries in the past century. The only completely dry Februaries in San Diego (since 1876) occurred in 1912, 1924, and 1967.

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My weather station reported a wind chill factor of 38F at one point during the rain (actual outdoor temp was 44F).

Eastern escarpment of Elsinore Peak (3,575 feet above sea level) - while hard to make out from here due to passing clouds - snow appears to be visible on the mountain down to roughly 3,000 feet.

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