2020 - 2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Thunder98]

Just now, Pn1ct0g3n said:

Even 2020 finally got there, sort of. We still had long runs of troughiness and gloom then.

Hopefully this year we see more heat and monsoonal moisture in the latter part of Summer. 2015 was so amazing.

 

 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

I’ve come to welcome the eddy. It may bring temporary drear, but they tend to bring up SSTs, making for better beach days once they dissipate.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Winnetka up to 100F! Places far enough from the moist southerly flow are heating up again after the relatively cool week. Micro climates and even sub microclimates are in full force. Getting stickier too! Dewpoints up to 66 in parts of inland OC.

[Thunder98]

Another cooler than forcasted day. Expected high of 78F, currently it's only 69F.  

[Pn1ct0g3n]

We still haven’t exceeded the low 70s here, but it felt warmer than before because less wind and higher humidity. Even 80 would probably technically qualify as a mild heat wave where I am (except maybe for August and September) as the standard deviation from our averages is so small. Between the wavy jet stream and the influence of the eddy, it’s kind of all over the place for today’s highs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Eddy brought in a strong south wind this afternoon.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

That last week really did a number on our sea surface temperatures. Hopefully the eddy helps counter that.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Dawned sunny, then the breeze freshened a little and it’s heavy haze/light fog. The stratus field is over 1000 miles wide on satellite with south winds, so beach clearing may be a tall order. 

[Thunder98]

When Portland, ME sees more Summer weather than we do...

 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

20% of storms tomorrow? I’ll believe it when I see it. And the forecast still mentions fog.

in recent years I’ve been noticing a pattern where it is sunny in the morning, but the marine layer blows in between 9:30 and noon and often keeps blowing in until early evening, instead of moving at night and burning off around lunchtime. The sea breeze also arrives a few hours earlier in the day than it used to. This was much less common 20+ years ago, when you could set your watch by when the clouds arrived and left each day and it was almost never sunny at 6am.

[Thunder98]

42 minutes ago, Pn1ct0g3n said:

20% of storms tomorrow? I’ll believe it when I see it. And the forecast still mentions fog.

in recent years I’ve been noticing a pattern where it is sunny in the morning, but the marine layer blows in between 9:30 and noon and often keeps blowing in until early evening, instead of moving at night and burning off around lunchtime. The sea breeze also arrives a few hours earlier in the day than it used to. This was much less common 20+ years ago, when you could set your watch by when the clouds arrived and left each day and it was almost never sunny at 6am.

The SD NWS has removed all tstorm chances for Coastal OC and SD from Tomorrow through Thursday.

[Anti Marine Layer]

San Diego area once again has clouds a few miles inland that will probably not clear while it has cleared to the beaches in other areas.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

San Diego area once again has clouds a few miles inland that will probably not clear while it has cleared to the beaches in other areas.

Totally socked in here. 

[Thunder98]

The Marine Layer cleared out not to late today.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Still sticking around here, but it’s not chilly and actually pretty comfortable in spite of the gloomy conditions, and close to norms. DTLA in low 80s, right on target for this time of year. 
 

another classic choose-your-climate day where a trip from the valleys to the beach can span 30F.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Thunderheads all over the mountains today. And we finally got some clearing here too.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Normally the monsoonal moisture would disrupt the marine layer, but not with today's super-strong inversion.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Marine layer is still pretty deep despite the surge of moisture and instability above it. 

[Thunder98]

The Marine Layer is the stupidest thing on Earth.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

7 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

The Marine Layer is the stupidest thing on Earth.

Shhhhh don’t tell Jesse!

It does play a role in protecting us from early fires and sustaining vegetation near the coast — but to us humans, beach goers and storm fans especially, it’s a drag.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

And the future is uncertain. Models disagree on whether a warming world will mean less coastal fog or *more*. The ocean is likely to get warmer but the inversions could also get stronger. All depends on whether the NPH shifts and in which direction during its annual migration. 

[Thunder98]

I want to see more of this than that garbage.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Eddy holding in strong today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

We need a strong outflow boundary to wipe out the marine layer.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

It’s trying to mix out here, and I can see the middle and high clouds through the gaps. 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

I’d imagine another way the monsoon helps us beach dwellers is it cools down the deserts and valleys. Heat in those areas is what pulls the marine air mass ashore after all. Sure enough, we’ve hit 76 here and there’s little wind compared to last week.

[Anti Marine Layer]

San Diego is still socked in. I remember one day where we had a strong marine layer and some monsoonal moisture around. Some areas near the beaches were socked in at noon with no sign of any clearing. Then a strong thunderstorm caused an outflow boundary that obliterated the marine layer and got temperatures into the 90s near the coast.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

San Diego is still socked in. I remember one day where we had a strong marine layer and some monsoonal moisture around. Some areas near the beaches were socked in at noon with no sign of any clearing. Then a strong thunderstorm caused an outflow boundary that obliterated the marine layer and got temperatures into the 90s near the coast.

I remember several times in 2015 where the high was set as late as 5:30 in the afternoon. We had a sea breeze front keeping the warm air at bay and then…bam. The wind shifted, the clouds mixed out, and it went from low 70s to low 80s. It rained too.

[Thunder98]

Currently a pleasant 76F 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Quote

At 2231Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 feet deep.

?????

[Thunder98]

It's raining in Vegas!

 

[Thunder98]

I'm loving this weather forecast in SE Arizona! They really need it!

 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

An early start means nothing for the overall strength of the season, but it’s nice to see so much activity this early.

Local SSTs fairly typical now. Mid to upper 60s, dropping sharply 50-60 miles out. Our four day eddy continues and should help, although to really warm them up we’d need another hot, still spell. Once they hit ~70, the risk of No-sky July should go way down.

 

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Cleared out nicely here. Interesting clearing pattern where the marine layer seems to be “peeling back” directly southward with a thin fringe clinging to south facing beaches. Monsoon air is MIA today west of the mountains.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Beaches south of PV remain socked in.

[AquariusRadar]

16 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

It's raining in Vegas!

Is this the storm that clobbered Zion ParK? All those nice RVs in flood water; Why would camping in dry river beds be permitted?

 

[Reg]

2020-2021 concludes. 5.40" is the my second-lowest season total I have recorded over the past 11 years.

[Reg]

Only 25 days of the entire 2020-2021 water year had measurable rainfall here. This is lower than both 2006-2007 and 2001-2002 and ties with 2017-2018 for least number of days with rain.

Downtown Los Angeles ended the water year with 5.82" (7th driest since 1877), while San Diego ended it with 4.51" (10th driest since 1850).

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like a deep marine layer this morning, especially over Central and Northern California. Happy first day of July.

[Pn1ct0g3n]

Good news, eddy is gone. Bad news, we’ve snapped right back to northwesterly flow. North wind at Avalon is pretty telling. Some juicy air is flowing into Arizona now, but it’s hundreds of miles away. SSTs are up slightly from VC coast to the Mexican border, but have been flat or slightly down for SB County.

Extended forecast looks to be pretty average and uneventful, at least through the Fourth.