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2020/2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread


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40 minutes ago, Pn1ct0g3n said:

Timing the flash to boom indicates it’s about 2 miles away.

How rare is an October thunderstorm in California? My dad claims it’s the first time he’s ever seen one and he’s 73.

I had a thunderstorm with small hail on 10/27/04. Absurdly wet October. Epic wet winter followed.

I recall an earlier occasion coming home from work in O.C. on I-5 at around 11 p.m. one October evening and seeing lightning flashes in all directions from widespread thunderstorms. Can't find it in my weather records. May have been before 1995.

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Getting some crazy loud thunder and lightning here.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2021-2022 Season Total: 0.99" (as of 10/16/21)

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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Some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard in my life happening here right now. Briefly hailed just now. 0.08" and rising

KNKX_20211005_023000_CREF_black.png.c0832d8337103f002d52b69608def959.png

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2021-2022 Season Total: 0.99" (as of 10/16/21)

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Thunderstorms are arriving.

You're getting the same ones that just moved through here earier.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2021-2022 Season Total: 0.99" (as of 10/16/21)

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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It has been an active evening here in Orange with plenty of overhead lightning and thunder, rain, and even some brief strong gusty winds just as the thunderstorms arrived. I am still seeing plenty of lightning to my S, SW, and even to the W at times. 

This is very reminiscent of a thunderstorm outbreak that occurred in September.

 

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Steady rain for the last couple of hours, although right now it seems to be being replaced by ferocious winds. Very loud outside right now as trees and loose objects are being blown all over the place. 0.24" since midnight.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2021-2022 Season Total: 0.99" (as of 10/16/21)

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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There was little rain here after 6pm, but lightning strikes in the vicinity continued until around midnight. 
 

Amazing what a little change in timing can do: the unrelenting marine inversion finally lifts. You get a late season pulse of moisture and suddenly it’s party time!

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Here too. They were predicting a major marine push starting today but it’s still gorgeous mid-high 70s down to the coast. The low must be pulling more warm air in from the south.

Might be the last warm day for a long time so savor it.

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0.25” since midnight here. 0.38” in all. Not bad for an October cutoff low.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2021-2022 Season Total: 0.99" (as of 10/16/21)

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Pn1ct0g3n said:

It deepened rapidly overnight, extending to the mountain slopes from LA County southward.

The Marine Layer depth is only 1000' feet on the Central Coast, 2500' ft in LA County, Over 4000' ft in OC and SD Counties! Very inconsistent. 

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A small low circulation has been pumping a modest flow of moisture into the middle coast and making very light mountain showers in the Stanislaus area. If the stalled cool front just above Santa Rosa can get a boost and continue down the coast, this setup could get interesting. Nothing shown on the short range forecast until 18Z Thursday. Could there be snow flurries at Tahoe tonight?

That tiny circulation is way out off the coast 1000 miles or so. But eastward flow seems unrestricted. Is the blocking high deflating a bit?

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The hulking high has smothered that little low waaaaay out there and cut off the flow of moisture to the middle of the state. The western states got some moisture to work with when that Aleutian system comes through from the northwest. The southern flow of moisture from the ITCZ into the SoCal and Az continues.  Short range forecast shows rain likely again for LA area Friday morning. 

Later: I have to take it back- the tiny twist has survived and is sending more moisture to the central coast. Snow likely for the Sierra per the forecast.

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