April 2nd-4th Storm system (both waves)

[Money]

MKE AFD

 

 

THE MOSTLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION SURGE AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH...BUT IT DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS THE
MAIN FORCING EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST. THE LOW LEVEL DRY FLOW FROM
THE EAST WILL CONTINUE AS THE INITIAL MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BIG CONCERNS. THE MAIN ONE IS
WITH TEMPERATURES. THE NAM/GFS COOL US DOWN QUITE A BIT WED
NIGHT...BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...WITH THE
DRY DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. THE ECMWF ISN/T QUITE AS COLD...IN
FACT IT KEEPS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ABOVE FREEZING. IT/S A TOUGH CALL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTION AND WILL BE HAPPY IF THE WARMER ONE VERIFIES. THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTS THE COOLER APPROACH. AS A
RESULT...WE/LL LIKELY SEE A WINTRY MIX DEVELOP...SPREADING FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO THE WEST...MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.
WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

[gabel23]

Seen this one other time, was up in Cherry county of Nebraska. Tornado warning and blizzard warning in the same county!!

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BROOKINGS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 323 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VOLGA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

MNZ071-072-SDZ040-010100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0007.140401T0000Z-140401T1200Z/
LINCOLN-LYON-BROOKINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...
IVANHOE...MARSHALL...BROOKINGS
1152 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CDT TUESDAY...

* TIMING...TONIGHT IS THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES.

[Jaycee]

 

Seen this one other time, was up in Cherry county of Nebraska. Tornado warning and blizzard warning in the same county!!

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BROOKINGS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

 

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

 

* AT 323 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VOLGA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

 

HAZARD...TORNADO.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

1152 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

 

MNZ071-072-SDZ040-010100-

/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0007.140401T0000Z-140401T1200Z/

LINCOLN-LYON-BROOKINGS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...

IVANHOE...MARSHALL...BROOKINGS

1152 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

7 AM CDT TUESDAY...

 

* TIMING...TONIGHT IS THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES.

 

The weather here is absolutely nuts. But it just hasn't been that way out here in Eastern Nebraska this year. We've had anything but wild weather, unless you consider Wind and Fire's exciting. Praying to god this upcoming storm dumps precip on us. Idgaf what it is. Give me something, just please. My cracked yard is reminiscing 2012, and I cannot fathom going through that horrid summer again. Something needs to happen. All the Nebraska posters on this forum are weather weenies, we go ape for any storm that looks good for us. We've had zero. For what, over 6 months?? The last real storm that I remember was back in November when Wayne got a tornado. It's been bone friggin dry ever since. If this next storm doesn't drop .25"+ precip here, things here are going to be really, really bad. This weather is effecting our economy out here, which is astounding usually, but since it's based so heavily on agriculture we're going to pay the price big time, as well as the rest of the U.S. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I agree 100 percent. It is been so long between storms you wonder if it is still possible.

[Money]

18z nam with a L just west of STL. Pretty far east compared to other models.

[Geos]

For the two waves coming this first week of April.

 

Discuss rain, freezing rain and snow prospects here.

 

NAM sends the WAA pretty far north.

 

[th_snow]

Lots of model disagreement as the negative tilt trough kicks out of the Rockies.  GFS has been ticking north on its latest model runs. ECMWF has been relatively consistent with a more northern track the past few runs. Will be interesting to see how this ends up verifying.

[clintbeed1993]

Lots of model disagreement as the negative tilt trough kicks out of the Rockies.  GFS has been ticking north on its latest model runs. ECMWF has been relatively consistent with a more northern track the past few runs. Will be interesting to see how this ends up verifying.

 

It will probably be a good storm for you I'm thinking.  Seems to be on a northern track.  It makes sense climatology speaking.  I think Southern Minnesota will be in the brunt of it.

[Geos]

I shifted most of today's storm posts over here if anyone is wondering. I'll probably just leave the rest in the other thread.

[Money]

15z SREF look to be on the southern side of things. 

[Money]

18z GFS ensembles:

 

7 or 8 further SE/colder than OP

1 that doesn't have a storm

2-3 that are NW/warmer than OP

 

 

Bufkit for LSE:

 

 

140402/2100Z 51 12006KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140403/0000Z 54 08008KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 10| 0| 90
140403/0300Z 57 07009KT 34.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 0| 0|100
140403/0600Z 60 07011KT 31.4F SNPL 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.056 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.13 48| 52| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0900Z 63 07011KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.052 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.05|| 0.18 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 66 06011KT 29.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.20 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 69 07013KT 32.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.21 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 72 07011KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.22 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/2100Z 75 07010KT 36.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.22 0| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 78 05010KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.22 0| 0| 0
140404/0300Z 81 07010KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.26 0| 0|100
140404/0600Z 84 05012KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.30 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0900Z 87 01011KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.414 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.07|| 0.72 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 90 04014KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.124 5:1| 0.3|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 0.84 0| 0|100
140404/1500Z 93 35012KT 30.5F SNOW 14:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.476 13:1| 7.1|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.32 100| 0| 0
140404/1800Z 96 36016KT 31.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.220 13:1| 9.5|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.54 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/2100Z 99 34015KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 13:1| 9.5|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.66 84| 0| 16
140405/0000Z 102 33013KT 30.3F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 9.7|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.70 100| 0| 0
140405/0300Z 105 33010KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 9.7|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.70 0| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 108 33008KT 21.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 9.7|| 0.06|| 0.20|| 1.70 0| 0| 0

 

 

GB

 

140403/0900Z 63 05014KT 28.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
140403/1200Z 66 06014KT 27.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.096 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.13 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 69 06013KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.15 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 72 06014KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.15 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/2100Z 75 07013KT 34.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.15 0| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 78 05010KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0300Z 81 05011KT 29.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 84 06013KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0900Z 87 06015KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.03 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 90 04013KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.077 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.11 0| 0|100
140404/1500Z 93 04022KT 29.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.110 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.22 0| 0|100
140404/1800Z 96 04017KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/2100Z 99 03017KT 31.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
140405/0000Z 102 35014KT 29.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.38 100| 0| 0
140405/0300Z 105 35014KT 27.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 108 34013KT 26.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140405/0900Z 111 33011KT 23.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.41 0| 0| 0
140405/1200Z 114 33009KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.41 0| 0| 0

[Money]

21z SREF mean way south. Takes the L through STL and a good deal south. Even south of LAF, IN.

[th_snow]

21z SREF mean way south. Takes the L through STL and a good deal south. Even south of LAF, IN.

Id toss the SREF. Looks odd.

[Money]

0z NAM takes the L right through Chicago (1000 or so)

 

big fzr event with 1+ qpf for S. WI. Both waves come through after 0z in the nighttime. 

[East Dubzz]

How many SLP can go right through my area this year? Feel like there has been several of them.

[gosaints]

Boring nam defo band. Unimpressive

[Money]

Yeah, it looks different. Seems like it doesn't re-develop the L as it heads north like previous runs, and doesn't get going until it's too late.

 

We'll see if that's a trend or not. 12z/18z NAM/GFS runs have the initial piece weak as it heads NE and then re-develops in OK or so. 

[Geos]

0z NAM soundings show at least MSN escaping the freezing rain with the first wave.

Weatherbell maps showing the freezing rain more focused in central WI. Some gets into SW WI late during the second wave.

[Money]

LSE

 

140403/0700Z 55 07016KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.19 0| 0|100
140403/0800Z 56 07017KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.22 0| 0|100
140403/0900Z 57 07018KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.24 0| 0|100
140403/1000Z 58 06014KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.28 0| 0|100
140403/1100Z 59 06015KT 31.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.30 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 60 07015KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.32 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1300Z 61 06015KT 30.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.33 0| 0|100
140403/1400Z 62 06014KT 30.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.35 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 63 06014KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.36 0| 0|100
140403/1600Z 64 07014KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.37 0| 4| 96
140403/1700Z 65 06013KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.38 0| 3| 97
140403/1800Z 66 06013KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.38 0| 8| 92
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1900Z 67 05012KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.39 0| 10| 90
140403/2000Z 68 04011KT 32.4F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.39 0| 15| 85
140403/2100Z 69 04011KT 32.4F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.39 0| 18| 82
140403/2200Z 70 03011KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.39 0| 0| 0
140403/2300Z 71 03011KT 32.4F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.40 0| 27| 73
140404/0000Z 72 02010KT 32.1F SNPL 2:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007 2:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.24|| 0.41 27| 73| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0100Z 73 01011KT 31.5F SNPL 4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 3:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.41 56| 44| 0
140404/0200Z 74 01012KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 3:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.41 0| 0| 0
140404/0300Z 75 36012KT 31.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 6:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
140404/0400Z 76 35012KT 31.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.45 100| 0| 0
140404/0500Z 77 35013KT 30.6F SNOW 18:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 14:1| 1.1|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 78 35015KT 29.6F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 16:1| 2.3|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.54 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0700Z 79 35016KT 28.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 17:1| 3.5|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.61 100| 0| 0
140404/0800Z 80 34016KT 27.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 16:1| 4.0|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.65 100| 0| 0
140404/0900Z 81 34017KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 15:1| 4.2|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.68 100| 0| 0
140404/1000Z 82 34018KT 26.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 15:1| 4.2|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.68 100| 0| 0
140404/1100Z 83 33018KT 25.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 4.2|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.68 0| 0| 0
140404/1200Z 84 33018KT 25.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 15:1| 4.2|| 0.02|| 0.24|| 0.68 0| 0| 0

 

4.2 SN 0.24 FZR

 

MSN

 

140403/0400Z 52 07015KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.07 0| 0|100
140403/0500Z 53 07015KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.10 0| 0|100
140403/0600Z 54 07015KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.057 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.16 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0700Z 55 07016KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.19 0| 0|100
140403/0800Z 56 07015KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.26 0| 0|100
140403/0900Z 57 07015KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.29 0| 0|100
140403/1000Z 58 07016KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.30 0| 0|100
140403/1100Z 59 08017KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.31 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 60 08018KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.32 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1300Z 61 08017KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.33 0| 0|100
140403/1400Z 62 08016KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.33 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 63 08016KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140403/1600Z 64 08015KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.35 0| 0|100
140403/1700Z 65 08014KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.35 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 66 07014KT 34.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.35 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1900Z 67 07014KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.35 0| 0| 0
140403/2000Z 68 06012KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.38 0| 0|100
140403/2100Z 69 06012KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.39 0| 0|100
140403/2200Z 70 06012KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.40 0| 0|100
140403/2300Z 71 05011KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.41 0| 0|100
140404/0000Z 72 04011KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.43 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0100Z 73 04011KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.45 0| 0|100
140404/0200Z 74 03012KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.47 0| 0|100
140404/0300Z 75 02013KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.48 0| 0|100
140404/0400Z 76 36011KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.49 0| 0|100
140404/0500Z 77 35013KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.52 0| 0|100
140404/0600Z 78 35014KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.52 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0700Z 79 35015KT 30.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.53 0| 0|100
140404/0800Z 80 34016KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.54 0| 0|100
140404/0900Z 81 34016KT 29.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.54 0| 0|100
140404/1000Z 82 33016KT 28.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.55 100| 0| 0
140404/1100Z 83 32017KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.56 100| 0| 0
140404/1200Z 84 32019KT 27.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.58 100| 0| 0

 

 

Oshkosh

 

140402/1900Z 55 11008KT 45.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/2000Z 56 11008KT 44.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/2100Z 57 11009KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/2200Z 58 10010KT 43.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/2300Z 59 09011KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140403/0000Z 60 10010KT 37.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0100Z 61 10010KT 34.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140403/0200Z 62 08010KT 30.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140403/0300Z 63 07010KT 29.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
140403/0400Z 64 06011KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
140403/0500Z 65 06012KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
140403/0600Z 66 06012KT 29.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0700Z 67 06012KT 29.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 8:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
140403/0800Z 68 06013KT 29.4F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.039 8:1| 1.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.23 69| 31| 0
140403/0900Z 69 06013KT 29.6F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.044 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.27 33| 67| 0
140403/1000Z 70 05014KT 29.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.030 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.03|| 0.30 0| 0|100
140403/1100Z 71 05014KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.07|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 72 04014KT 29.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.09|| 0.36 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1300Z 73 05015KT 29.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.12|| 0.39 0| 0|100
140403/1400Z 74 05016KT 29.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.13|| 0.40 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 75 05016KT 30.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.14|| 0.41 0| 0|100
140403/1600Z 76 05015KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.15|| 0.42 0| 0|100
140403/1700Z 77 04015KT 30.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 7:1| 1.8|| 0.08|| 0.16|| 0.43 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 78 04016KT 31.0F SNPL 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 7:1| 1.9|| 0.09|| 0.16|| 0.43 79| 21| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1900Z 79 05015KT 31.5F SNPL 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 7:1| 1.9|| 0.09|| 0.16|| 0.44 67| 33| 0
140403/2000Z 80 05015KT 32.1F SNPL 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 7:1| 1.9|| 0.09|| 0.16|| 0.44 77| 23| 0
140403/2100Z 81 05015KT 32.1F SNPL 3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 1.9|| 0.10|| 0.16|| 0.45 32| 68| 0
140403/2200Z 82 06016KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 7:1| 1.9|| 0.10|| 0.16|| 0.45 0| 0|100
140403/2300Z 83 06016KT 32.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 1.9|| 0.10|| 0.16|| 0.45 0| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 84 06015KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 1.9|| 0.10|| 0.16|| 0.45 0| 0| 0

[Money]

GFS not caving in with the 1st wave. Very similar to 18z. 

 

2nd wave might come a bit north. 

[Money]

992 over Chicago at HR 90

 

8+ for gosaints or pretty close to his area. 

 

6+ for Green Bay compared to 2-3 on 18z. 

[Money]

GGEM HR 84

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif

[th_snow]

0Z UKMET

 

[Money]

attachment doesn't work.

 

Where do you get the ukmet early btw? The one I use doesn't update for another hour or so.

[gosaints]

Man the GFS is an absolute concrete mixer here. would be fun if it verified but way to far out

[gosaints]

HPC likes the MSP corridor

[Geos]

All liquid here, for ENW and RAC, except for a chance of a mix Friday late. Lows stay just warm enough.

 

Yeah 6z GFS really hammered you GoSaints!

 

12z not so bad. Pulls the heaviest snow further north.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

[james1976]

weird bullseye in sw MN

[gosaints]

Crappy b/w maps but the GGEM is impressive to say the least

[gosaints]

GFS would be more of a freezing rain to rain back to freezing rain then some heavy snow type of a deal.  Not complex at all

[tim the weatherman]

looked at the chicago weather center weather blog and their feature graphic that the low will track over chicago like money was saying.

[gosaints]

Pretty much all the models take the low somewhere in the Chicago vicinity

[Snowshoe]

Haven't looked at snow maps in a while because quite frankly I'm tired of it. That's hard for me to say. The NAM gives me this garbage... seriously where was this map a month ago!

 

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

[james1976]

no way that NAM verifies. definite outlier. ill gladly take it and eat my words though if it  were to come true. lol

[th_snow]

no way that NAM verifies. definite outlier. ill gladly take it and eat my words though if it  were to come true. lol

Agree, NAM is on a different planet.

[CentralNebWeather]

See the white in the middle, that is Central Nebraska.  Storms hate us.

[Snowshoe]

The GFS is no treat either.

 

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

[gosaints]

La crosse throwing out 12inches plus.  Just have no idea where the band will set up.  Time of year would say favor NW

[Snowshoe]

Jokers...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

230 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

 

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

 

I/D LIKE TO SAY THE FOLLOWING FORECAST DISCUSSION IS ALL JUST A

CRUEL APRIL FOOLS JOKE...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE OLD MAN

WINTER IS NOT DONE WITH US.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ARX&issuedby=ARX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[East Dubzz]

Lol at the NAM. What a joke!