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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


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We finally have our first legit storm to track for the New Year and one that looks to bring a mixed bag of precip depending on where you live.  Who will have a snowstorm, ice storm or thunderstorm???  Lot's to discuss and evaluate as we move along this week.  There seems to be a trend that this system may bring 2-waves, an initial frontogenetically induced wave and then a stronger secondary ULL southern stream energy that tracks somewhere across the S MW/Lower Lakes.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

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About 2 inches of snow total here as the snowfall has pretty much ended in my backyard.   This likely qualifies as the biggest snowfall event I have seen yet this Winter- this “amazing” snow event fi

OMADOME will not be penetrated...    

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and

Posted Images

Ton of spread on the EPS. Really most changes seem to involve how progressive the system is more than track just at a glance. The slower members have a much bigger storm as the deformation zone is able to develop better.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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The GFS destroys S MI. Some ice at the beginning turning into an all out major snowstorm w a lot of wind w it. Power outages could be possible. Wow. This baby looks to be very dynamic.

 
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The GFS destroys S MI. Some ice at the beginning turning into an all out major snowstorm w a lot of wind w it. Power outages could be possible. Wow. This baby looks to be very dynamic.

 

 

I just hope it's not to progressive.  

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LOT already out with their afternoon disco. Lots going on in the discussion but their last paragraph sums up the upcoming forecast period.

 

Needless to say with the uncertainty and five plus days out, have
maintained rain/snow verbiage in the forecast for right now for a
good part of that period. Have trended toward the cooler side on
Saturday with north to northeast surface winds forecast. Will note
the wintry mix and accumulating snowfall potential in the Weather
Story.


The pattern looks to remain progressive into next week with a
general
trough over the Rockies. This could mean a couple more
strong systems over the middle of the U.S. for next week.

 

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yeah the Euro Ensembles don't seem to be latching onto the 2 piece system like the Op model showed.  We'll see, about 4 days away from the first bit of energy coming into the plains, so i'm sure we'll get a wide range of solutions this week. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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wow this is looking a lot like the snow storm in March '98.... area received anywhere from 6-12" heavy wet snow. I remember we had no power for 4 days. I recall 80/94 completely shut down for days with abandoned cars. Any of our fellow historians remember this storm?

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northeast Illinois the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation began in the form of rain out ahead of this system, and then changed over to heavy snow in the pre-dawn hours on the 9th. The heavy snow continued through the morning hours and had ended by noon. Six to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow fell across much of northeast Illinois. Strong winds combined with the heavy snow damaged power lines and tree limbs throughout northeast Illinois. More than 300,000 households had lost power, with some places without electricity for up to 4 days. Along Lake Michigan, high winds generated high waves, which flooded and closed sections of Lake Shore Drive and also caused beach erosion and lakefront park damage. Estimated damage to the lakefront parks alone totaled nearly half a million dollars. Heavier snowfall totals reported: Will County: Peotone-12 inches, Crete-11 inches, NWS office/ Romeoville-9 inches, Manhattan-8 inches, and in Plainfield-8 inches. Cook County: Midway Airport-11 inches, Park Forest-9 inches, and O'hare Airport-6 inches. DuPage County: Winfield-8 inches, Wheaton-7 inches, Downers Grove-6 inches, Geneva-6 inches and in Aurora-6 inches. Kankakee: Bourbannais-8 inches and Kankakee-8 inches.

 

 

Radar animations of the storm (times CST).

12AM to 6AM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=0&minute=0

6AM to 12PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=6&minute=0

12PM to 6PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=12&minute=0

6PM to 9PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=37&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=18&minute=0

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NOAA:  Already mentioning the possibility.........

 

An active weekend may be in store as medium range models continue to
depict a pair of waves lifting across the eastern CONUS in the
Friday to Sunday time frame. The first (northern stream) wave brings
the first good chance for widespread precip Friday night, while the
stronger second (southern stream) wave will arrive on Sunday after
tapping into abundant Gulf moisture.
The forecast remains extremely
sensitive to fine-scale details in thermal profiles as well as the
track and intensity of low pressure systems lifting through. High
confidence at this point in periods of precipitation this weekend,
but low confidence in type and timing for now. Any and all precip
types including rain, snow, mix, and ice may be in play.

 

 

 

Man, this storm will be really juiced up. GOM will be open for business. Also, a very active STJ in play.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I see ZERO and I mean ZERO support on those Euro Ensembles for the big snow hit across SMI shown on the Operational...sigh. Here we go again!  :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NOAA:  Already mentioning the possibility.........

 

An active weekend may be in store as medium range models continue to

depict a pair of waves lifting across the eastern CONUS in the

Friday to Sunday time frame. The first (northern stream) wave brings

the first good chance for widespread precip Friday night, while the

stronger second (southern stream) wave will arrive on Sunday after

tapping into abundant Gulf moisture. The forecast remains extremely

sensitive to fine-scale details in thermal profiles as well as the

track and intensity of low pressure systems lifting through. High

confidence at this point in periods of precipitation this weekend,

but low confidence in type and timing for now. Any and all precip

types including rain, snow, mix, and ice may be in play.

 

 

 

Man, the storm will be really juiced up. GOM will be open for business. Also, a very  active STJ in play.

 

Anything is possible. Gee, there's a surprise outlook.  :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think you are in good shape I'm a little concerned down here that it may not get it's act together in time.

 

In good shape for what? Rain? Most models are north today, including Euro ENS, GEFS, GEPS, et al 

 

Not finding the upside here unless potential ice-to-rain excites? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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In good shape for what? Rain? Most models are north today, including Euro ENS, GEFS, GEPS, et al 

 

Not finding the upside here unless potential ice-to-rain excites? 

I should have looked closer the trend today was not good for S. Mich.

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I should have looked closer the trend today was not good for S. Mich.

 

As is, I'm again riding the southern boundary of the Euro ENS mean snow cone. That's not a good place to start considering this is NOT a phasing situation but a S Stream shortwave getting it's act together on it's own. Nothing to keep it from going as far north as every other storm of late.   ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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As is, I'm again riding the southern boundary of the Euro ENS mean snow cone. That's not a good place to start considering this is NOT a phasing situation but a S Stream shortwave getting it's act together on it's own. Nothing to keep it from going as far north as every other storm of late.   ;)

 

LOT already throwing this map out.

111pot.png

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LOT already throwing this map out.

 

Thx, but see CentralNeb's post as to why that may just be a bit pre-mature at this point. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:D

 

Psst! It's a just a map - don't fall for it...don't fall for it...repeat, don't fall for it..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We know there will be a major storm this weekend. The big question here is what will the precip type be and how much cold air will be in play. Still plenty of time to iron these things out.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'd take 4" in a heartbeat... but I don't like the looks of that dry slot in North KS. I hope that fills in some or it'll land right on top of Omaha/Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Been a while since I made WPC's d3-7 hazards map. There was an era when these were more reliable so it certainly falls in the fwiw column any more, but two things are interesting. 1) while 12z guidance all seemed north, they published an afternoon map leaning south (head scratched). 2) Their discussion was notable for reasons emboldened. 

 

20200106 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

Detailed Summary:

A very active medium range period (Thursday Jan. 9 to Tuesday Jan. 14) means a busy hazards
graphic. A highly amplified trough in the western U.S. and ridge in the East will be the culprit
for the hazardous weather. A long-duration heavy rain event is forecast to begin on Thursday across
portions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain will be possible across this same
area on Friday and Saturday while also shifting into the Tennessee Valley as well, with a general 3
to 5 inches of total rainfall and locally higher amounts possible. Severe weather will be a
concern on Friday and Saturday across the Arklatex and Deep South regions. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed highlighted areas here due to the increased threat of severe thunderstorms
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rain is also a high
possibility across the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes and Northeast between Friday and Sunday.
Slightly lesser amounts of rain are forecast here, but 1 to 3 inches of rainfall could still lead
to localized flooding. Portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys have seen 150-200% of normal
precipitation over the last month, possibly making this event even more impactful. Meanwhile, on
the northern and western periphery of the precipitation shield, a wintry mix is possible from the
Southern Plains to New England. The greatest threat for impactful winter weather exists from the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes to New England. Snow, sleet, freezing rain will all be possible here
thanks to a high pressure system moving just north of the region and ushering in surface
temperatures below freezing. Due to changing precipitation types and uncertainty in where exactly
the rain/snow line will set up, a "heavy precipitation" label was used instead of "heavy snow".

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS seems like the outlier so far in terms of progressiveness.  

 

Isn't it most of the time?  ;)  I like your position much better than down here. I can sense from our office's AFD that they do too. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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wow this is looking a lot like the snow storm in March '98.... area received anywhere from 6-12" heavy wet snow. I remember we had no power for 4 days. I recall 80/94 completely shut down for days with abandoned cars. Any of our fellow historians remember this storm?

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northeast Illinois the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation began in the form of rain out ahead of this system, and then changed over to heavy snow in the pre-dawn hours on the 9th. The heavy snow continued through the morning hours and had ended by noon. Six to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow fell across much of northeast Illinois. Strong winds combined with the heavy snow damaged power lines and tree limbs throughout northeast Illinois. More than 300,000 households had lost power, with some places without electricity for up to 4 days. Along Lake Michigan, high winds generated high waves, which flooded and closed sections of Lake Shore Drive and also caused beach erosion and lakefront park damage. Estimated damage to the lakefront parks alone totaled nearly half a million dollars. Heavier snowfall totals reported: Will County: Peotone-12 inches, Crete-11 inches, NWS office/ Romeoville-9 inches, Manhattan-8 inches, and in Plainfield-8 inches. Cook County: Midway Airport-11 inches, Park Forest-9 inches, and O'hare Airport-6 inches. DuPage County: Winfield-8 inches, Wheaton-7 inches, Downers Grove-6 inches, Geneva-6 inches and in Aurora-6 inches. Kankakee: Bourbannais-8 inches and Kankakee-8 inches.

 

 

Radar animations of the storm (times CST).

12AM to 6AM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=0&minute=0

6AM to 12PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=6&minute=0

12PM to 6PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=12&minute=0

6PM to 9PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=37&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=18&minute=0

 

Lived in far NW edge of S. Bend and we were on the eastern edge of the heavy swath and received a solid 8". I remember the Toll Road was closed from our point on west as you mentioned. If you look closely at my list of bliz's in my signature you will indeed see March 1998. The worst hit areas due south of Lake Michigan and inland a few counties really got beat up due to the weight of the snow. I think for some places, it was one of their all-time worst storms impact-wise. Thanks for remembering. What mostly are you seeing that you think mimics that storm, the rain first?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I have vivid memories of that March 1998 storm. I was living close to where I am now in northwest IN.

 

It was one of, if not the most colossal forecast busts I have ever experienced, and fortunately it was in the positive direction. The forecast the night before was for an inch or less. I remember doing a radar check before I went to bed that Sunday night (the 8th) and thinking that something just didn't quite look right, even as a 14 year old kid who didn't really know much. There was a lot of precip streaming in from downstate IL/IN but temps were still on the warm side. Then sometime around 4-5 am, it changed to snow and I had multiple occurrences of thundersnow that morning. Piled up about a foot of heavy, wet snow rather quickly. School was cancelled which made me a happy camper. It was a nightmare on the roads with the surprise nature being a big factor in that. I-80 had issues as was mentioned but there were a ton of problems on I-65 as well with a lot of people stranded.

 

Still one of my favorite storms to date, but fortunately there have been others that have surpassed it since then, including a well known one that hit 10 months later.

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I see this as a likely scenario because of the way it bypasses KC to the north AND the south.

 

Pretty sure KC got a storm not too long ago. Oh yeah, the one that the GFS was sure would be a cutter but ended up a slider. Maybe this one actually gets us this time? 

 

Ofc the mean of the MSLP is in a very attractive location at this range per the 18z Euro ENS. There are even some decently strong SLP's showing up in that region in the mid-990s. Usually all the stronger options are on the far NW fringe. 

 

20200106 18z Euro ENS_MSLP_h126.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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WPC's day 5 surface reflection. An early call obviously from this range. 

 

20200106 d5 CONUS Surface.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Pretty sure KC got a storm not too long ago. Oh yeah, the one that the GFS was sure would be a cutter but ended up a slider. Maybe this one actually gets us this time? 

 

Ofc the mean of the MSLP is in a very attractive location at this range per the 18z Euro ENS. There are even some decently strong SLP's showing up in that region in the mid-990s. Usually all the stronger options are on the far NW fringe. 

 

attachicon.gif20200106 18z Euro ENS_MSLP_h126.PNG

I'll tell ya this, the track is darn perfect! ;)  So, 4 more days to go. Lets see!

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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00z ICON is close to the other models now.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models are converging so far tonight.  The GFS is similar to past runs, the weak/se outlier ICON trended nw, and the Canadian backed off of the hard cutter and looks more like the GFS.  As of now, Iowa's precip comes from wave 1.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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