Tom Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 We finally have our first legit storm to track for the New Year and one that looks to bring a mixed bag of precip depending on where you live. Who will have a snowstorm, ice storm or thunderstorm??? Lot's to discuss and evaluate as we move along this week. There seems to be a trend that this system may bring 2-waves, an initial frontogenetically induced wave and then a stronger secondary ULL southern stream energy that tracks somewhere across the S MW/Lower Lakes. Let's discuss... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z EPS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Northern Michigan looks good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ton of spread on the EPS. Really most changes seem to involve how progressive the system is more than track just at a glance. The slower members have a much bigger storm as the deformation zone is able to develop better. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 a lot of those look good fornhere... we shall see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GFS destroys S MI. Some ice at the beginning turning into an all out major snowstorm w a lot of wind w it. Power outages could be possible. Wow. This baby looks to be very dynamic. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GFS destroys S MI. Some ice at the beginning turning into an all out major snowstorm w a lot of wind w it. Power outages could be possible. Wow. This baby looks to be very dynamic. I just hope it's not to progressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 LOT already out with their afternoon disco. Lots going on in the discussion but their last paragraph sums up the upcoming forecast period. Needless to say with the uncertainty and five plus days out, havemaintained rain/snow verbiage in the forecast for right now for agood part of that period. Have trended toward the cooler side onSaturday with north to northeast surface winds forecast. Will notethe wintry mix and accumulating snowfall potential in the WeatherStory.The pattern looks to remain progressive into next week with ageneral trough over the Rockies. This could mean a couple morestrong systems over the middle of the U.S. for next week. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 yeah the Euro Ensembles don't seem to be latching onto the 2 piece system like the Op model showed. We'll see, about 4 days away from the first bit of energy coming into the plains, so i'm sure we'll get a wide range of solutions this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I just hope it's not to progressive. We will see. Does look like this has the potential to be a big dog storm for a lot of us peeps on here. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 wow this is looking a lot like the snow storm in March '98.... area received anywhere from 6-12" heavy wet snow. I remember we had no power for 4 days. I recall 80/94 completely shut down for days with abandoned cars. Any of our fellow historians remember this storm? A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northeast Illinois the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation began in the form of rain out ahead of this system, and then changed over to heavy snow in the pre-dawn hours on the 9th. The heavy snow continued through the morning hours and had ended by noon. Six to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow fell across much of northeast Illinois. Strong winds combined with the heavy snow damaged power lines and tree limbs throughout northeast Illinois. More than 300,000 households had lost power, with some places without electricity for up to 4 days. Along Lake Michigan, high winds generated high waves, which flooded and closed sections of Lake Shore Drive and also caused beach erosion and lakefront park damage. Estimated damage to the lakefront parks alone totaled nearly half a million dollars. Heavier snowfall totals reported: Will County: Peotone-12 inches, Crete-11 inches, NWS office/ Romeoville-9 inches, Manhattan-8 inches, and in Plainfield-8 inches. Cook County: Midway Airport-11 inches, Park Forest-9 inches, and O'hare Airport-6 inches. DuPage County: Winfield-8 inches, Wheaton-7 inches, Downers Grove-6 inches, Geneva-6 inches and in Aurora-6 inches. Kankakee: Bourbannais-8 inches and Kankakee-8 inches. Radar animations of the storm (times CST).12AM to 6AM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=0&minute=06AM to 12PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=6&minute=012PM to 6PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=12&minute=06PM to 9PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=37&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=18&minute=0 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 We will see. Does look like this has the potential to be a big dog storm for a lot of us peeps on here.I think you are in good shape I'm a little concerned down here that it may not get it's act together in time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm hoping to get 1" or less and keep our streak going of 1" or less systems to start this season. 6 measurable snow events= 5.2" total snowfall. Looks promising so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 NOAA: Already mentioning the possibility......... An active weekend may be in store as medium range models continue todepict a pair of waves lifting across the eastern CONUS in theFriday to Sunday time frame. The first (northern stream) wave bringsthe first good chance for widespread precip Friday night, while thestronger second (southern stream) wave will arrive on Sunday aftertapping into abundant Gulf moisture. The forecast remains extremelysensitive to fine-scale details in thermal profiles as well as thetrack and intensity of low pressure systems lifting through. Highconfidence at this point in periods of precipitation this weekend,but low confidence in type and timing for now. Any and all preciptypes including rain, snow, mix, and ice may be in play. Man, this storm will be really juiced up. GOM will be open for business. Also, a very active STJ in play. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I see ZERO and I mean ZERO support on those Euro Ensembles for the big snow hit across SMI shown on the Operational...sigh. Here we go again! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 NOAA: Already mentioning the possibility......... An active weekend may be in store as medium range models continue todepict a pair of waves lifting across the eastern CONUS in theFriday to Sunday time frame. The first (northern stream) wave bringsthe first good chance for widespread precip Friday night, while thestronger second (southern stream) wave will arrive on Sunday aftertapping into abundant Gulf moisture. The forecast remains extremelysensitive to fine-scale details in thermal profiles as well as thetrack and intensity of low pressure systems lifting through. Highconfidence at this point in periods of precipitation this weekend,but low confidence in type and timing for now. Any and all preciptypes including rain, snow, mix, and ice may be in play. Man, the storm will be really juiced up. GOM will be open for business. Also, a very active STJ in play. Anything is possible. Gee, there's a surprise outlook. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I think you are in good shape I'm a little concerned down here that it may not get it's act together in time. In good shape for what? Rain? Most models are north today, including Euro ENS, GEFS, GEPS, et al Not finding the upside here unless potential ice-to-rain excites? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I think you are in good shape I'm a little concerned down here that it may not get it's act together in time.Not set in stone yet amigo. Lots can change. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Anything is possible. Gee, there's a surprise outlook. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 In good shape for what? Rain? Most models are north today, including Euro ENS, GEFS, GEPS, et al Not finding the upside here unless potential ice-to-rain excites? I should have looked closer the trend today was not good for S. Mich. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I should have looked closer the trend today was not good for S. Mich. As is, I'm again riding the southern boundary of the Euro ENS mean snow cone. That's not a good place to start considering this is NOT a phasing situation but a S Stream shortwave getting it's act together on it's own. Nothing to keep it from going as far north as every other storm of late. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 As is, I'm again riding the southern boundary of the Euro ENS mean snow cone. That's not a good place to start considering this is NOT a phasing situation but a S Stream shortwave getting it's act together on it's own. Nothing to keep it from going as far north as every other storm of late. LOT already throwing this map out. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 LOT already throwing this map out. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I should have looked closer the trend today was not good for S. Mich.You are in the game, don't worry, just a bit too early to know who will get what and when. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 LOT already throwing this map out. Thx, but see CentralNeb's post as to why that may just be a bit pre-mature at this point. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Psst! It's a just a map - don't fall for it...don't fall for it...repeat, don't fall for it.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Psst! It's a just a map - don't fall for it...don't fall for it...repeat, don't fall for it.. :lol: 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 18Z GFS crushes a lot of areas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z GFS i guess when I said crush i was being relative to the lack of snow seen for these areas this winter lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 We know there will be a major storm this weekend. The big question here is what will the precip type be and how much cold air will be in play. Still plenty of time to iron these things out. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS seems like the outlier so far in terms of progressiveness. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z ICON still not playing ball. Basically all rain and also further southeast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'd take 4" in a heartbeat... but I don't like the looks of that dry slot in North KS. I hope that fills in some or it'll land right on top of Omaha/Lincoln. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Been a while since I made WPC's d3-7 hazards map. There was an era when these were more reliable so it certainly falls in the fwiw column any more, but two things are interesting. 1) while 12z guidance all seemed north, they published an afternoon map leaning south (head scratched). 2) Their discussion was notable for reasons emboldened. Detailed Summary:A very active medium range period (Thursday Jan. 9 to Tuesday Jan. 14) means a busy hazardsgraphic. A highly amplified trough in the western U.S. and ridge in the East will be the culpritfor the hazardous weather. A long-duration heavy rain event is forecast to begin on Thursday acrossportions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain will be possible across this samearea on Friday and Saturday while also shifting into the Tennessee Valley as well, with a general 3to 5 inches of total rainfall and locally higher amounts possible. Severe weather will be aconcern on Friday and Saturday across the Arklatex and Deep South regions. The Storm PredictionCenter has placed highlighted areas here due to the increased threat of severe thunderstormscapable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rain is also a highpossibility across the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes and Northeast between Friday and Sunday.Slightly lesser amounts of rain are forecast here, but 1 to 3 inches of rainfall could still leadto localized flooding. Portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys have seen 150-200% of normalprecipitation over the last month, possibly making this event even more impactful. Meanwhile, onthe northern and western periphery of the precipitation shield, a wintry mix is possible from theSouthern Plains to New England. The greatest threat for impactful winter weather exists from theMidwest and Lower Great Lakes to New England. Snow, sleet, freezing rain will all be possible herethanks to a high pressure system moving just north of the region and ushering in surfacetemperatures below freezing. Due to changing precipitation types and uncertainty in where exactlythe rain/snow line will set up, a "heavy precipitation" label was used instead of "heavy snow". 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS seems like the outlier so far in terms of progressiveness. Isn't it most of the time? I like your position much better than down here. I can sense from our office's AFD that they do too. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 wow this is looking a lot like the snow storm in March '98.... area received anywhere from 6-12" heavy wet snow. I remember we had no power for 4 days. I recall 80/94 completely shut down for days with abandoned cars. Any of our fellow historians remember this storm? A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northeast Illinois the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation began in the form of rain out ahead of this system, and then changed over to heavy snow in the pre-dawn hours on the 9th. The heavy snow continued through the morning hours and had ended by noon. Six to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow fell across much of northeast Illinois. Strong winds combined with the heavy snow damaged power lines and tree limbs throughout northeast Illinois. More than 300,000 households had lost power, with some places without electricity for up to 4 days. Along Lake Michigan, high winds generated high waves, which flooded and closed sections of Lake Shore Drive and also caused beach erosion and lakefront park damage. Estimated damage to the lakefront parks alone totaled nearly half a million dollars. Heavier snowfall totals reported: Will County: Peotone-12 inches, Crete-11 inches, NWS office/ Romeoville-9 inches, Manhattan-8 inches, and in Plainfield-8 inches. Cook County: Midway Airport-11 inches, Park Forest-9 inches, and O'hare Airport-6 inches. DuPage County: Winfield-8 inches, Wheaton-7 inches, Downers Grove-6 inches, Geneva-6 inches and in Aurora-6 inches. Kankakee: Bourbannais-8 inches and Kankakee-8 inches. Radar animations of the storm (times CST).12AM to 6AM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=0&minute=06AM to 12PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=6&minute=012PM to 6PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=12&minute=06PM to 9PM: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=37&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=18&minute=0 Lived in far NW edge of S. Bend and we were on the eastern edge of the heavy swath and received a solid 8". I remember the Toll Road was closed from our point on west as you mentioned. If you look closely at my list of bliz's in my signature you will indeed see March 1998. The worst hit areas due south of Lake Michigan and inland a few counties really got beat up due to the weight of the snow. I think for some places, it was one of their all-time worst storms impact-wise. Thanks for remembering. What mostly are you seeing that you think mimics that storm, the rain first? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I have vivid memories of that March 1998 storm. I was living close to where I am now in northwest IN. It was one of, if not the most colossal forecast busts I have ever experienced, and fortunately it was in the positive direction. The forecast the night before was for an inch or less. I remember doing a radar check before I went to bed that Sunday night (the 8th) and thinking that something just didn't quite look right, even as a 14 year old kid who didn't really know much. There was a lot of precip streaming in from downstate IL/IN but temps were still on the warm side. Then sometime around 4-5 am, it changed to snow and I had multiple occurrences of thundersnow that morning. Piled up about a foot of heavy, wet snow rather quickly. School was cancelled which made me a happy camper. It was a nightmare on the roads with the surprise nature being a big factor in that. I-80 had issues as was mentioned but there were a ton of problems on I-65 as well with a lot of people stranded. Still one of my favorite storms to date, but fortunately there have been others that have surpassed it since then, including a well known one that hit 10 months later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z EC comes in a little weaker but still 2 pieces of energy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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