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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


Tom

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I see this as a likely scenario because of the way it bypasses KC to the north AND the south.

 

Pretty sure KC got a storm not too long ago. Oh yeah, the one that the GFS was sure would be a cutter but ended up a slider. Maybe this one actually gets us this time? 

 

Ofc the mean of the MSLP is in a very attractive location at this range per the 18z Euro ENS. There are even some decently strong SLP's showing up in that region in the mid-990s. Usually all the stronger options are on the far NW fringe. 

 

20200106 18z Euro ENS_MSLP_h126.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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WPC's day 5 surface reflection. An early call obviously from this range. 

 

20200106 d5 CONUS Surface.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Pretty sure KC got a storm not too long ago. Oh yeah, the one that the GFS was sure would be a cutter but ended up a slider. Maybe this one actually gets us this time? 

 

Ofc the mean of the MSLP is in a very attractive location at this range per the 18z Euro ENS. There are even some decently strong SLP's showing up in that region in the mid-990s. Usually all the stronger options are on the far NW fringe. 

 

attachicon.gif20200106 18z Euro ENS_MSLP_h126.PNG

I'll tell ya this, the track is darn perfect! ;)  So, 4 more days to go. Lets see!

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z GFS.  Jaster are you ready to buy in yet?

zr_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Beautiful! I accept. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z GFS.  Jaster are you ready to buy in yet?

zr_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Amigo, you do pretty good here. Are you in the pink bullseye?! :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models are converging so far tonight.  The GFS is similar to past runs, the weak/se outlier ICON trended nw, and the Canadian backed off of the hard cutter and looks more like the GFS.  As of now, Iowa's precip comes from wave 1.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK also nw and more robust with both waves.... very similar to the GFS.  It's even a bit nw with wave #2 as it gets solid snow into much of se IA.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro took a step back this run, especially with wave 1.  Iowa gets little if any precip.  The energy sweeping across southern Canada needs to weaken and/or get out of the way sooner for us Iowans.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Ukie develops the secondary wave into a healthy and formidable winter storm with a lot of colder air to work with NW of the track. It has been stead fast in developing a widespread snowstorm from KS/MO/IA/IL/N IN/MI. The defo band which develops near KC tracks right thru N MO/SE IA/N IL/NW IN/S MI with a lot of precip in the cold sector. In fact, it looks very similar to the Euro in terms of track but the Euro doesn't develop as much snow back in the Plains/S MW.

 

00z Euro showing some love for Chitown into NW IN/MI...

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6z EC no good for me but some do well.

1578830400-XMGy5AkGkXw.png

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton...rain is interesting in KC?

 

Just kidding, I know what you mean. Track looks different and it looks like a nice storm.

 

Let’s get our winter back!

I hope so, the models look active the next few weeks.  We really need to land 1 or 2 storms here.

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The Euro likes you!  The 6z ensembles looked a lot better for my area than the op.

I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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All over the place as usual.  It will be Thursday before anything becomes clear.

 

I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days.

 

 

 

Jaster are you ready to buy in yet?

 

Ha!  I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Ha!  I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lol

I understand and the track is very uncertain, hope we can zero in on it by tomorrow but it will probably be Friday lol.

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Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers.  The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy.  The NAM doesn't even have a first wave.  It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So, of course, the GFS goes the other way, weaker and southeast again.  *sigh*

 

The difference between the ICON and GFS is obvious at 500 mb.  The ICON is weaker and faster with the southern Canada energy and slower with the southern energy, so the two are able to split and let the southern energy cut north.  The GFS is stronger and slower up in Canada and faster down south, so the two remain too attached and the southern energy gets stretched out and yanked east.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z ICON has a big wound up storm but further north than Euro.

1578916800-fYXpzhfZ7nw.png

 

Good to see the ICON jump on board and I'm happy with the northern solution, but long ways out.  NAM looks great, too bad it's the NAM at 84 hours. 

 

Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers.  The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy.  The NAM doesn't even have a first wave.  It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece.

 

Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Until the main waves enters the picture, models will remain confused.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks..

:lol:  I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave.  The windshield wiper alert killed me!

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:lol:  I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave.  The windshield wiper alert killed me!

:lol: :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm guessing the NAM is wrong.  While the ICON has the northern wave getting sufficiently out of the way to allow the southern wave to cut more, the NAM is actually ejecting the southern energy so quickly that it is able to cut before it can be suppressed/stretched.  I think it's likely the NAM will gradually slow the southern energy and begin to suppress/stretch more like the other models.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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