Hawkeye Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Canadian back north with the second wave, although not too amped. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12Z CMC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. UK_12z_0107.gif Geez! Congrats to da Yoopers! (again) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man Ukie just clips me with heavy snow. A shift of 30 miles would put it out of my area though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 My office at least buying into this storm more so than any other event this year except maybe Halloween? I know Vet's Day snuck up on 'em with the GFS dragging it's feet into camp on that. Active pattern setting up for the end of the week and especiallyover the weekend as deep upstream trough sends out several waves.Initially it is warm enough for mostly rain Thursday into Friday,but as the baroclinic zone settles just south of Michigan overthe weekend it turns cold enough for mixed precip or snow. Mainconcern at this time is Saturday night as stronger wave comesthrough and strong sfc high to our north feeds in cold low levelair mass via northeast winds. Potential exists for heavy QPFamounts with several inches of snow and/or a band of heavyfreezing rain/sleet with significant impacts, but difficult atthis time to nail down the specifics. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. UK_12z_0107.gifThat looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower. Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals. Euro up next...please continue to show us some love! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 That looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower. Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals. Euro up next...please continue to show us some love! If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave. The windshield wiper alert killed me!Just buy using the 30 day harmonic, in December, there was a developed system that tugged down an arctic blast which was transient and looks very similar to what is showing up on the models for this system. However, back in November, during the Vet's day storm, it was an elongated wave where the secondary piece became the more wintry side of things over here. I think this system has a better chance at developing the secondary wave unlike back in November. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. This is why this hobby can get a bit nutty. I'm still nervous of this becoming stronger and taking an unfavorable track for my area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro going to be too warm and strong for SMI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro given KC a lot of ice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 YES PLEASE! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Whoa. Is Euro 2 pieces are converting to one biggie? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 pieces still, but both further north. In fact I80 in eastern Iowa is on the border line of rain/ice/snow. If it keeps shifting north i'll get stuck with rain down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z Euro biggie! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro and GFS are not even close to the same page. Long way to go with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 First piece 2nd piece 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 game over for me. I'll take plain rain over Ice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I would not set this in stone at all. Its only Tuesday. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Wow I get hit with snow from both pieces. That would be incredible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I would not set this in stone at all. Its only Tuesday. Trend with all models is NW. GFS is on it's own. Never a good thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Gonna be a nightmare for offices if it's a 1-2 punch and mixed precip. Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro/Ukie on same page is good 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Wow sign me up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro shows significant icing. The maps on pivotal had me worried that I'm close to the rain/snow line, but temps actually hold in the 20s throughout the entire storm, so the precip should be frozen this whole run for eastern Iowa. But if sleet or freezing rain get mixed in, that will significantly cut down on snow totals for those on that edge. So close but yet so far away on this one. Hour 84 is when the precip first hits central IA and 102 when wave 2 gets going. So no reason to get my hopes up, but i'm going to anyways. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago... Yeah, never want to be in the bull's eye @ d10 d7 d5 d4 This model bouncing just plain ruins this hobby 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. game over for me. I'll take plain rain over Ice. NEXT??? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 wooa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Trend with all models is NW. GFS is on it's own. Never a good thing. Congrats N and W Peeps, as I originally figured. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yeah, never want to be in the bull's eye @ d10 d7 d5 d4 This model bouncing just plain ruins this hobby Exactly....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago... Great stuff, eh?? Could've seen this coming. Now hopefully Clinton will get why I'm hesitant to buy in, at least this year. Idk why the Ops are so retarded (meaning slow to catch-on) when their own Ensembles were well north with majority of members even yesterday's runs. Both EPS and GEFS iirc were leaning well NW 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well, the 12z EPS came in a lot farther SE than the amped up Operational run and takes a track up from Texarkana thru S IL/C IN/SE MI....I'm waiting for the snow maps to come in but it looks like a swath of heavy SN that the Ukie laid out. Tons of precip being advertised and a noticeable trend of a deeper, slower and amped up SLP. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well, the 12z EPS came in a lot farther SE than the amped up Operational run and takes a track up from Texarkana thru S IL/C IN/SE MI....I'm waiting for the snow maps to come in but it looks like a swath of heavy SN that the Ukie laid out. Tons of precip being advertised and a noticeable trend of a deeper, slower and amped up SLP. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Weak sauce SLP that basically runs over my head and appears to be about 90% liquid?? Hard to tell from that janky incremental map 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Weak sauce SLP that basically runs over my head and appears to be about 90% liquid?? Hard to tell from that janky incremental mapYep, I saw that.......Little more east would help. NAO/AO are not helping, I'll tell ya that amigo! Thank goodness its only Tuesday though. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yep, I saw that.......Little more east would help. NAO/AO are not helping, I'll tell ya that amigo! Thank goodness its only Tuesday though. Always nice when it's near 40F here, yet if you look at radar there's a snowstorm SE of us. La Nino doin' it's thang again. Where's that SER today?? Oh yeah, I forgot, it only rears it's ugly head in time to hose our storm chances Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z EPS snow mean... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 ^spread the wealth! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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