jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z EPS snow mean... Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$ APX playing "coy" in there pm update. They're golden but I get that they can't act like it. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected toeject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impactingparts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather lowconfidence prevails at this time. Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around thisweekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plainsthrough the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snowpotential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on thespeed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of thesystem. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriadof possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong windsto snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast areato a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to oursouthwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of theweek for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactfulweather. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$ APX playing "coy" in there pm update. Their golden but I get that they can't act like it. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected toeject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impactingparts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather lowconfidence prevails at this time. Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around thisweekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plainsthrough the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snowpotential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on thespeed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of thesystem. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriadof possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong windsto snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast areato a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to oursouthwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of theweek for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactfulweather. You won't like GRR's write up. Buying the Heavy Rain, possible freezing rain and Snow way to the north scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z EPS snow mean... 12z EPS snow mean...Looks like it's slowly starting to zero in on a track maybe by tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$ APX playing "coy" in there pm update. They're golden but I get that they can't act like it. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected toeject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impactingparts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather lowconfidence prevails at this time. Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around thisweekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plainsthrough the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snowpotential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on thespeed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of thesystem. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriadof possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong windsto snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast areato a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to oursouthwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of theweek for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactfulweather.NOAA going w Euro and Icon. Way too soon to even give a forecast at this range. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 You won't like GRR's write up. Buying the Heavy Rain, possible freezing rain and Snow way to the north scenario. SHOCKED, TOTALLY SHOCKED. OMG! Can't believe that they'd jump on that so quickly?? (sarc) APX Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Looks like it's slowly starting to zero in on a track maybe by tomorrow.Except the GFS but maybe it will cave soon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z EC 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Tom, thanks for the map. I think KC with the EURO run today gets a bunch of ice prior to the back side snows? Looks nasty on the 12z run today. We’ll see how this baby trends. I think for KC it depends how far the cold push is WRT overrunning and ice? Will the cold make it here in time before the slug of moisture pushes East. Will it be one piece of energy or two. A lot of questions. I do like the trends today for a sizable winter storm in KC. I’m a snow contractor so, I can’t think of a better weekend....winterstorm Friday/Saturday then a Chiefs victory on Sunday. I’m 0-40 in January WRT the Chiefs making it to Feb. They have never done that in my entire life. I’m hoping after this January I will be 1 for 41. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z EC If I ever needed a 50 Mile shift south, This would be the storm. But that seems to never happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If I ever needed a 50 Mile shift south, This would be the storm. But that seems to never happen. I don't know how it will play out but there is still plenty of time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z NAM showing a lot of sleet in eastern Iowa. Map on TT looks way different than Pivotal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If I ever needed a 50 Mile shift south, This would be the storm. But that seems to never happen. Still plenty of time for changes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If I ever needed a 50 Mile shift south, This would be the storm. But that seems to never happen. Today's Euro for SMI..gotcha again, Sucker! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Still plenty of time for changes. LOL. For the worse? Ok. Sorry amigo, but it's all over but the ice. Since when do ALL the models trend NW only to come back to their prior position 2 or 3 days later? Answer-never happens. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM is still hitting a lot of members at hr 84. Who knows what happens from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 trying hard not to get excited. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Here is what LOT is going with atm Basically we lean toward a middle solution path of the GFS and EC,or near the 12Z GEM. Somewhere in the area certainly could see amodest to significant snow accumulation, but too much uncertaintyin the guidance paths at this distance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 NWS KC take on the weekend storm. The focus then shifts to the Friday/Saturday time period for thenext appreciable chance for widespread precipitation. There aresome aspects of the Friday/Saturday system that are medium to highconfidence and some aspects that are much lower confidence. Thehigher confidence items revolve mostly around the idea that awell organized mid level system will move through the forecastarea, bringing with it higher chances for precipitation as we gointo Friday. Also within the higher ranges of confidence is thelow and mid level temperature profile associated with this system.Both the latest EC and GFS operational models indicate a ratherelongated N-S oriented H85 low. This may be significant because itwould indicate a pretty formidable warm nose within the H9 to H7layer. The result would be at the very least a "warm" rain processon Friday, switching through a wintry mix Friday night andeventually snow on Saturday morning. As the low level and surfacecold air filters into the area, there isn`t much indication thatthe low/mid level warm nose will erode as quickly, so this wouldyield a period of freezing rain and/or sleet starting in theFriday evening to Friday night time frame. As the H85 low shiftseastward the cold air will eventually erode that warm nose, butlikely not before the surface cold air becomes entrenched. Again,this would yield a somewhat prolonged period of wintry mix(freezing rain and sleet) Saturday morning. This aspect of theforecast is running a bit higher in confidence than the exit phaseof this system on Saturday. Once the cold air is in place at alllevels and the wintry mix capability is replaced with all ormostly snow production the system will be moving out of the area.Most operational models have been depicting a pretty narrow windowof snow production before the system departs, however, the latestrun of the GFS does seem to come in a bit more aggressive withrespect to snow production on the backside of the system, andECMWF (12z) has also come in a bit more aggressive with snowproduction. So until there can be a bit more model consistencywill not get too excited about the prospects of a high-impactwinter system for the upcoming weekend. Despite both the GFS andEC coming in a bit more aggressive with the snow production theydo not have much in common with the placement of the backside snowproduction. So, much will need to be ironed out with respect tothe scale and location of any wintry precipitation potential forthis weekend.Thereafter, there isn`t much to mention for impactful weather.Long range model solutions do hint at at least some increasedactivity through the middle part of the month, and signals also doseem to have some indication of colder temperatures moving in forthe middle part of the month and immediately beyond. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Think my sump pump is going to get quite the workout 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z ICON brings all rain with the first wave, but turns to snow on the 2nd wave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 DVN This boundary then stalls to our southeast, roughly from Missouri tothe Great Lakes as it becomes aligned under the developing southwestflow aloft. The GFS has made a slight southeastward shift with theaxis of precipitation developing Friday into Saturday with anoverall more progressive system. The latest 12Z ECMWF has a moreorganized surface low feeding off this baroclinic axis and moisturefeed, lifting northeast on a track from AR to northern IL bySaturday night. This solution would be a favorable track formeasurable snow over eastern Iowa and northeast MO, while the GFSwould be more of a quick hitter of a wintry mix. For now, a verylow confidence forecast of rain and possible freezing rain,changing to snow is kept over the area for late Friday intoSaturday. Forecast confidence should improve as the energy forthis system, currently well off shore is better sampled over thenext couple days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 18z GFS coming in further NW than 12z and a little stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS still further south with wave 2, and overall not nearly as strong as the UK and Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 ^That's a whacky snow map 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I have to ride the GFS 4 days out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Des Moines not going with op GFS: At this point, models diverge significantly in the handling of thesystem for later Friday into the weekend. The operational GFS isone of the driest for the forecast area compared to the variousother GEFS members and appears to be the outlier. The operationalEuro is much more aggressive with impacts into much of centralIowa late Friday into early Saturday. Have generally trended awayfrom the operational GFS and more toward the ensemble mean giventhe spreads in the various models. This would indicate that snowwill overspread much of central and southern Iowa on Fridayafternoon into the evening as strong mid level forcing movesnortheast across Iowa. This forcing is maximized in the eveningwith light to moderate snow across much of the forecast areabarring the northwest quarter of so. Winds will also increase asthe pressure gradient tightens producing blowing snow and helpingto reduce visibilities. The snow is expected to taper off by lateevening into the overnight. Most locations in central intosouthern Iowa would expected moderate accumulations at this time.However, given the spread in the models, the confidence remainslow in any given scenario. The Euro is also now indicating asecondary push of precipitation/snow on Saturday across thesoutheast third of the forecast area as deformation precipitationcrosses eastern Iowa. This will bear watching over the next fewcycles to see if this remains as it would change the weekendforecast across the eastern CWA significantly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 models have been hinting at this 2 wave solution for the past 24-48 hours so I'm a little confused how DMX is acting like this is a brand new phenomena showing up on the Euro, but ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 well this is interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 18z EC much like the 12z Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Local forecast calling for a 60% chance of snow Friday and 30% chance Friday night. NWS Hastings says 2nd wave should not be a concern as of now for Nebraska. Cold comes next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 18z EC much like the 12z Euro. Geeze, thats teasing me with those lollipop totals... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Based on that 18z Euro Run, it would suggest that ULL to really dig and produce its own cold air to give @OkWx some snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Based on that 18z Euro Run, it would suggest that ULL to really dig and produce its own cold air to give @OkWx some snow.I bet he's been paying attention lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Geeze, thats teasing me with those lollipop totals...Still thinking it’s gonna be primarily a rainer our way, eventually going to a mix and possibly a little snow on the back end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Up to 30% pops here for snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 0z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Good lord. That's world's different form the GFS/Euro in SE Neb. I'll be surprised if LNK gets even a quarter of that total. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I still don't like the way the NAM is handling the southern energy. It's faster, stronger, and north of the other models. While the best scenario(for Iowa) from the other models is if the northern energy can get out of the way so the southern energy can cut and amp up more, the NAM is trying to beat the northern energy before it can stretch the main system and pull it more eastward. I think it will trend toward the other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I have to ride the GFS 4 days out And to think last evening I posted how the ICON remained totally south of here with no cold sector precip. What. A. Joke. I honestly think you have a shot if the original 2 pc scenario comes back, or there's a little better timing of that N wave so the S thing can't cut as hard as it shows currently. I'd be at least 50/50 optimistic if I was up your way. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 LOL. For the worse? Ok. Sorry amigo, but it's all over but the ice. Since when do ALL the models trend NW only to come back to their prior position 2 or 3 days later? Answer-never happens. We will see amigo. There is still plenty of time to see this track change. Lets hope for the best. I am very curious to see what the models will show once the energy enters the west coast. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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