Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Looks like the Icon went south earlier. Perhaps, the change is starting to happen?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 We will see amigo. There is still plenty of time to see this track change. Lets hope for the best. I am very curious to see what the models will show once the energy enters the west coast. Back about 10-15 yrs ago, there were often some significant shifts when shortwaves came fully into the raob network. That's why in big storms like GHD-1 they would fly recon flights out into the Pacific to gather data to better forecast impacts for the CONUS. I think they've worked really hard to eliminate that "sudden shift" because I've not seen it happen now for quite some time. If anything, landfall has just solidified the trends that started at the d4 or d3 range. Without the usual phase timing issues, this seems even less likely to jump around when sampled. As said, our best hope (and it's a weak one imho) is the 2-pc's of energy scenario, and the 2nd one stays further south as models were showing last night's 0z runs. As said, having not seen the traditional back-tracking (guidance used to be known for), I think it's a long, long shot for us to get back into anything decent from this one. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Looks like the Icon went south earlier. Perhaps, the change is starting to happen?! 0z ICON running. At h93 it's actually east of it's 18z run. Perfect Little Egypt SLP just a bunch of rain thanks to this warm pattern. What a waste Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z ICON 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 0z NAM..perfect NMI storm Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z ICON WAIT! Where's my "vote down" button when I need it?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Something is really quirky with the ICON...ground temps are in the 20's with a 1038mb HP seeding cold air into the system to the north. I highly doubt its that warm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, esp with a 996mb storm. If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Back about 10-15 yrs ago, there were often some significant shifts when shortwaves came fully into the raob network. That's why in big storms like GHD-1 they would fly recon flights out into the Pacific to gather data to better forecast impacts for the CONUS. I think they've worked really hard to eliminate that "sudden shift" because I've not seen it happen now for quite some time. If anything, landfall has just solidified the trends that started at the d4 or d3 range. Without the usual phase timing issues, this seems even less likely to jump around when sampled. As said, our best hope (and it's a weak one imho) is the 2-pc's of energy scenario, and the 2nd one stays further south as models were showing last night's 0z runs. As said, having not seen the traditional back-tracking (guidance used to be known for), I think it's a long, long shot for us to get back into anything decent from this one. 0z NAM..perfect NMI storm 20200108 0z nam12k h84 Surf.pngWe will see. Time will tell. If it doesn't happen, then, we go to the next one. It is certainly not the end of the world.... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Gfs still no where near the other models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS a near shutout for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 yep. 0z GFS continues to be the "share the white stuff east" model of choice. Weaker no doubt tho.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Something is really quirky with the ICON...ground temps are in the 20's with a 1038mb HP seeding cold air into the system to the north. I highly doubt its that warm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, esp with a 996mb storm. If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow. I've never cared for that model tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow. Thinking what the ICON is showing as plain rain is likely some ZR or IP or whatever across SMI? Seems like it has zilch vs other models with lots of mix and ice 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z GFS Still got one I can "like" (KCH actually gets me to a solid 4" - baby steps, right?) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Still got one I can "like" Need to change the GFS to the JFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Difference between GFS and Euro. The slower Euro is able to let the northern wave pass by and then cut northeast. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Not sure what was worse tonight. The GFS run or Iowa’s 3 point shooting against Nebraska. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's literally impossible to get a cutter in mby so I do not discount the GFS at all. Would not be surprised at all if this misses all of Iowa. I hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Not sure what was worse tonight. The GFS run or Iowa’s 3 point shooting against Nebraska. That 4 of 33 display was as bad as you'll ever see. That's how you lose to a bad Nebraska team. Losing JBo was bad enough, but now with CJ out Iowa's shooting ability goes way down. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Iowa’s overall game without a doubt. GBR! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Almost all of Iowa’s 33 three point attempts were uncontested. And we’re a pretty good shooting team. #1 in the nation in Kenpom offensive efficiency. I’ve never seen a shooting display like this. Hopefully never see it again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Almost all of Iowa’s 33 three point attempts were uncontested. And we’re a pretty good shooting team. #1 in the nation in Kenpom offensive efficiency. I’ve never seen a shooting display like this. Hopefully never see it again.Probably should stop shooting so many when you’re not making them too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 GGEM looks a lot like Icon through 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Probably should stop shooting so many when you’re not making them too.They put all 5 guys in the paint. Tripled teamed Garza all night. Could barely get in the paint. Iowa just picked a bad night to go ice cold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 UKIE looks like it joins the GFS camp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I want to cheer on the Nam but last time it did this it was a complete bust. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z UK.... more amped than GFS, but farther southeast than the 12z run. The heavy snow then moves up to Traverse City. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wow huge shift SE by the Ukie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm not discounting anything yet, in fact, didn't the GFS score a win over the Euro lately? However, if the Euro doesn't at least budge a little south the white towel is entering the ring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro at 60 hours has a slower northern wave and faster southern wave.... not good for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro’s low placement at 72hrs looks very similar to 72hrs on the 0z NAM. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z Euro... the Iowa snow is the first wave. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z results for Lincoln: Nam - 12"Everyone else - This isn't a fight we're gonna win. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Going by the Euro run, ORD would have 9 inches of snow & 3 inches of total precip. That’s nuts! 3 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Can we put this stupid winter to bed!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z Euro/Ukie are nearly identical in terms of placement of the heaviest Snow and are handling the ULL down in the deep south the best IMO. The Ukie has been very consistent advertising a winter storm to develop out in the Plains and then cut up near S IL/IN. Last night's Euro run took a step back to what it was showing 24 hours ago. I still expect to see some adjustments but for Chicago and nearby, this will be a nail biter. Looks like a mixed bag of precip before the cold front pushes through. I'm hoping the cold dense air can press even faster as we get closer to the event. Besides the precip, the models are advertising wind gusts topping 50-55 mph near the lake! Blizzard-like conditions near the lakeshore??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Almost forgot to include our friend down south in OK...@ OkWx, if you're lurking, the Euro paints a significant snowstorm nearby! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 06z GFS... 06z NAM...still snowing as the defo band tracks through MO/IL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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