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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Bryan1117
Bryan1117

About 2 inches of snow total here as the snowfall has pretty much ended in my backyard.   This likely qualifies as the biggest snowfall event I have seen yet this Winter- this “amazing” snow event fi

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

The 500 mb flow pretty much shows the foundation for everything.  I watch the shape/sharpness/vigor of the waves, their speed, their tilt, the interaction between the northern and southern streams, et

FarmerRick
FarmerRick

OMADOME will not be penetrated...    

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Should be some interesting AFD's this afternoon. still like where I am at. Happy with 3-5 and still potential to be a Big one 

I would agree with that notion.  Today's 12z Euro did come slightly SE compared to yesterday's 12z run.  I'm interested in seeing the EPS/Control in a little bit.  The Euro/GGEM vs Ukie....GFS/ICON in a world of their own.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Reading 500mb maps is not my forte, what specifically do you look for on these?  Do you mind posting some maps?

 

The 500 mb flow pretty much shows the foundation for everything.  I watch the shape/sharpness/vigor of the waves, their speed, their tilt, the interaction between the northern and southern streams, etc.

 

For example, at 48 hours on the 12z Euro it already suggested the system may come back nw a bit vs the 00z.  You can see the northern wave is slightly faster and the southern wave is slightly slower than last run.  Often, that would be bad because it is more positively tilted in the short term (and likely south/less phased in the long term), but in this case Iowa needs the northern wave to simply get out of the picture so the southern wave can cut more.  We need more distance between the waves.  If tonight's 00z run backtracks and shows a bit of closing of the distance again (which wouldn't surprise me) then that would strongly suggest the system will shift southeast.

 

trend-ecmwf_full-2020010800-f060.500hv.conus.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
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...GFS/ICON in a world of their own.

 

I live there too, remember  :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OmahaSnowFan Grand Master

OmahaSnowFan

Posted
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Yep sitting at 5.5” total here from 6 measurable events this winter.

This one is trending from 1” to 0” now

 

Really starting to downplay any snow around here. Maybe 1". I won't complain as we've had our share, but many parts of Eastern and Southeastern Nebraska that keep getting missed look to get missed again.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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That's an oddly-large slowing of the southern energy from the 12z to 18z run of the NAM.  It's now a northwest outlier.  I wouldn't put money on it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Oh Joy. Looking more and more like an Ice Storm here.  GRR thinking mostly Freezing rain in SMI at the moment.  

 

But..Big time snowstorm in Oklahoma this run   ;) 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
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That NAM run is crippling for many. Even though precip rates will be high and temps will be fairly marginal, it seems reasonable that the NAM is painting an axis of at least 0.75" of ice along with gusty winds. Would be the most impactful winter storm this area has seen in a couple of years, even if snow amounts aren't very high. It's the ice that will do the damage. Gotta watch the speed of the secondary wave as that directly affects icing/cold sector precip.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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Strung out crap or not, I gotta say I'm a little impressed by the consistency of the GFS for the last 10 or so runs. I hate the outcome though...

Yeah me too. Just saying it's the next model run up and it would be nice to see it more organized like some of the other models.
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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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18z NAM run. The HP is there, but the SLP just bullies it outta the way, shoving it NE into Canada. Not sure I can buy that. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted

That NAM run is crippling for many. Even though precip rates will be high and temps will be fairly marginal, it seems reasonable that the NAM is painting an axis of at least 0.75" of ice along with gusty winds. Would be the most impactful winter storm this area has seen in a couple of years, even if snow amounts aren't very high. It's the ice that will do the damage. Gotta watch the speed of the secondary wave as that directly affects icing/cold sector precip.

 

Warmth of an "open winter" here in the Mitt should preclude any real ice threats IF this indeed goes the far NW route. The more SE options might be another story tho. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
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18z NAM run. The HP is there, but the SLP just bullies it outta the way, shoving it NE into Canada. Not sure I can buy that. 

 

APX

 

Model guidance is vastly

uncertain still regarding the track and timing of the surface low.

Arctic high pressure over Ontario blocks the northward progression

of the low and shunts it through southern Ontario. The track of the

low on most guidance suggests accumulating snow for roughly the

southeast half of the CWA, but confidence in amounts at this time is

very low.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted

DVN calling the GFS an outlier, doesn't seem to be giving it much consideration.  I already have 4" in my point forecast. 

 

Models:

The 12Z GFS remains an outlier with a weaker, and more progressive
solution, while the ECMWF, Canadian and WRF/NAM have stayed on track
with a more bullish system that would provide more significant
impacts over the area. The former solutions have a stronger, more
closed shortwave, passing through the area in a negative tilt
fashion than the GFS. A resulting deformation axis would keep the
surface low on a more westerly track, with a corresponding
deformation axis providing a secondary period of enhanced lift for
moderate to possibly heavy snow from late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night over especially northeast Missouri and eastern Iowa.
These model advertised snowfall totals would support a need for
winter weather headlines in this timeframe.

While no headlines will be issued this afternoon, there is
increasing confidence that there will be sufficient ice/sleet
accumulations followed by accumulating snow to ultimately support
the need for winter weather advisories or even winter storm warnings
over much the forecast area Friday night, Saturday and possibly into
Saturday night. Ahead of the wintry precipitation, heavy rain and
possibly even a few thunderstorms Friday will pose a threat of at
least minor flooding in IL, where rainfall totals of 1 to possibly 2
inches are indicated by model consensus. This would lead to rises
and possible flooding along tributary rivers.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

The NAM/ICON have the HP in almost identical spots

 

Thus it's more about what the NAM does with the HP vs where it's at initially. Basically what the SLP does is in 2 camps. 

 

20200108 18z ICON h87.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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