1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[bud2380]

French model.  oui oui

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS doesn't seem to be changing much from previous runs. 

[bud2380]

GFS not budging yet, still a big nothing for most.  

[bud2380]

i guess the GFS does strengthen a little later and east, hits Chicago pretty good and areas of MI.  

[Tom]

18z GFS...

 

[james1976]

Minnesota!

[Money]

Its actually better than 12z run and more compact at the end

 

Baby steps

[Tom]

15z SREF's...

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Minnesota!

That’s from the Sunday/Monday system being shown on the GFS, and Euro. High pressure here won’t allow this storm to cut NW. Don’t buy the 18z NAM either.

[Clinton]

NWS KC current take on the storm.

 

Friday evening and Friday night, the system changes its
appearance quite a bit and introduces a potentially moderate to
high impact winter weather event. As the aforementioned surface
trough continues eastward cold air will filter into the region.
Ongoing "warm" rain will then interact with with the sub freezing
temperatures from NW/SE with time causing an accretion on
surfaces, especially elevate surfaces. This transition will likely
come earlier in the day across NW MO and NE KS, and likely later
in the day toward the late evening and overnight hours across the
KC Metro and points south and east. The strength of the cold air
at the surface may be enough to make the freezing rain transition
a shorter one, and quickly go into sleet. One thing that looks
pretty certain now is that the warm nose just off the surface in
the H9 to H7 layers appears to be pretty strong and tough to
erode. This should insure a longer transition through the wintry
mix blend.

The certainty with how this system will play out decreases by
magnitudes as it moves into the snow phase. Current runs of latest
models indicate a neg-tilt mid level wave slowly pushing through
the area Saturday morning. Mid and low level features at this
point do point toward a pretty favorable track for this region to
receive formidable snow. However, there is some uncertainty as
to the exact track. That being said, through the night on Friday
night into Saturday morning the low level cold air will eventually
erode the warm nose, and a transition to snow will take place. The
aforementioned uncertainty regarding exact snow totals and
location remain through the forecast period. It is notable that
recent model runs have come in a bit more aggressive for snow
totals in the region, namely the NAM/EC/Canadian. GFS also shows a
somewhat aggressive snow forecast, but differs quite a bit in the
track. Given the spread in possible solutions, will still pass on
issuing any direct snow amounts for now, but the trends do
generally favor a period spanning from early Saturday morning
through at least Saturday afternoon for moderate to perhaps some
heavy snow in the region.

[Money]

Any update on 18z euro?

[Niko]

That HP will help steer this storm more SE. It does not make sense to go NW. That is what the GFS is seeing.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

This wave coming ashore in California will
get sampled by upper air Thursday morning so models should have a
better handle on the scenario for Thursday afternoon package.

[Money]

That HP will help steer this storm more SE. It does not make sense to go NW. That is what the GFS is seeing.

I guess you can see the future

[Clinton]

Any update on 18z euro?

Just now starting to roll out.

[Money]

Just saw a tweet from a meteorologist that 18z euro isn’t backing down and similar to 12z

[Minny_Weather]

18Z Euro

[james1976]

Looks like 12z

[bud2380]

Beautiful

[Money]

Looks like 16-20 inch swath from eastern IA into DBQ and SW WI

[Money]

Gfs ensembles took a dive SE from 12z

 

Lost its amped up members

[Clinton]

18z EPS mean 

[Madtown]

Well Euro or GFS....which one has done better? Havent really.paid attention with the lack of storms. Worlds apart though!

[East Dubzz]

Well Euro or GFS....which one has done better? Havent really.paid attention with the lack of storms. Worlds apart though!

Whichever one looks better for your area. So definitely the Euro.

[Hawkeye]

NAM will be back southeast somewhat this run.  The southern wave took a big jump west on the 18z run.  The 00z has moved it back east by half.

[Money]

Yup. Def going southeast and faster this run

[Money]

Still showing a lot of fzr

[bud2380]

10” for Iowa city.

[hlcater]

Looks like EPS mean has ticked SE as well the past several runs. I’m still not confident in significant snow yet

[Grizzcoat]

[Jaycee]

Please keep the cold rain away ugh. Of course the EURO/NAM are NW, scary signs for us in the city, given itd be like 50 miles north that we miss out.

[james1976]

4-6 for mby. I'd take it

[jaster220]

Typical approach from my office. They've already decided the fate, while other offices are saying "not really nailed down yet"

 

We are fairly confident with regards to p-type for Saturday with
some fine tuning needed as we approach the timeframe. Freezing rain
will eventually set up for much of the area north of I-94 to around
M-20, with mainly rain south of I-94, and mainly sleet and snow
north of M-20. A small change in the low level thermal profiles will
have big impacts on the eventual prevailing p-type. The freezing
rain area is of most concern due to the biggest impacts of potential
power outages and icy roads.

[GDR]

[jaster220]

Otherwise, nothing but rainer here. Turning into another zzzz-fest. Thought I'd at least have a shot at some RN>>SN 

[Niko]

Typical approach from my office. They've already decided the fate, while other offices are saying "not really nailed down yet"

 

We are fairly confident with regards to p-type for Saturday with

some fine tuning needed as we approach the timeframe. Freezing rain

will eventually set up for much of the area north of I-94 to around

M-20, with mainly rain south of I-94, and mainly sleet and snow

north of M-20. A small change in the low level thermal profiles will

have big impacts on the eventual prevailing p-type. The freezing

rain area is of most concern due to the biggest impacts of potential

power outages and icy roads.

I'd wait till tomorrow afternoon, if not till Friday. Nothing is set in stone yet.

[Grizzcoat]

 mby is Likely going to miss the heaviest snow to the North and East - but will be content with 2" and not having to deal with copious amounts of cold rain in the dead of winter.

 

no thanks-   https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc&rh=2020010900&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Hawkeye]

The ICON should come back nw a bit this run.  The 18z had the nw edge of the snow at the QC.  I'm going to guess the QC will be in solid snow this run, but it won't be back to CR.

[Money]

Icon coming in slower and SW with the southern wave compared to 18z

[Clinton]

18z ICON