GDR Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm going to guess the QC will be in solid snow this run, but it won't be back to CR. Bingo... nailed it 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Bingo Baby steps in the right direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 So what's everyone's thoughts not wishing? Is this thing headed to be strung out progressive junk or wound up like the euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 So what's everyone's thoughts not wishing? Is this thing headed to be strung out progressive junk or wound up like the euro? I'll guess in between the Euro and GFS. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs might be heading more NW this run? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs might be heading more NW this run?seems so through hr 66 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs might be heading more NW this run? Certainly should be given the slower southern wave and slightly faster northern wave. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Going to be way NW and stronger this run Already down to 997 in southern IL at 66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 995.4 just south of the southern LM. Big time cave towards euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like 8-12 band from eastern IA into southern WI and MI area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS going beast mode! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS just slowed down and caved in to the NAM/EC solutions. It's more robust aloft and has vastly more cold sector precip with wave 2. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The GFS still doesn't have jack squat for a first wave in Iowa. The second wave is much-improved, though. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'd wait till tomorrow afternoon, if not till Friday. Nothing is set in stone yet. Maybe your office thinks that. Mine says it is. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 On that note, who woulda guessed that the GFS was gonna slow down within FH72??? It's not like it always does this or anything... 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Still need to come further NW for my back yard but bit improvement over previous runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS going beast mode! Congrats NW Peeps Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The GFS still doesn't have jack squat for a first wave in Iowa. The second wave is much improved, though. At least it shows the mix n ZR, unlike the lame ICON 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS through 84 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_01/image.png.fe13871e359d765ce65f4d667f52dd51.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 At Tom Thought the 12z UK was going to lead the way back to a more SE solution, but it's failed on that account already this winter. Now the HP you were confident of this morning is again too far east allowing this thing to cut hard. Same old story, eh? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Ideally, we could get a couple inches from the first wave and then pad it with several more from the second wave. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z GFS. Has anyone heard from OKweather 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm not sure how much of a deal this is anymore, but both waves will be mostly onshore tomorrow morning for the 12z runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I honestly don’t think freezing rain is even that much of a threat here due to warm temps. Should be interesting to see the 00z EURO tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I’ll take that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z GFS. Has anyone heard from OKweather LOL at decent snow line AGAIN one freaking county NW of here. 11-26-18 on 'roids 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 LOL at decent snow line AGAIN one freaking county NW of here. 11-26-18 on 'roids Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Maybe your office thinks that. Mine says it is. Way too soon to know what this storm will do. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS showing a major icestorm for the DTX area. UGH! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS showing a major icestorm for the DTX area. UGH!yeah- and it ain't the first run showing that either -https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020010900&fh=78&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=zr_acc&m=gfs 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 yeah- and it ain't the first run showing that either -https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020010900&fh=78&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=zr_acc&m=gfsNo thx... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 If this verifies, then, holy crap! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gem is gonna be NW as well. Significantly slower and Southwest at hr 60 compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GEM is mainly rain for Chicago. It takes the surface low to Chicago and hits eastern IA-Southern WI pretty hard https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020010900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well, it's certainly looking good for a nice second wave for at least southeastern Iowa. However, the Canadian is also beginning to crap out the first wave. It now has Cedar Rapids getting some rain changing to mix. There is very little snow anywhere from wave #1. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Hard to tell what ukie does but at hr 72 it’s pretty similar to the gfs/Nam in where the low is 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS showing a major icestorm for the DTX area. UGH! Even the ensembles blow chunks for us. For days they look promising only to cave to the amped-up Ops in the last 48 hrs. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Even the ensembles blow chunks for us. For days they look promising only to cave to the amped-up Ops in the last 48 hrs. Hopefully this storm moves a bit slow. By doing so, that huge H to our north can suppress it more. I honestly do not want ice at all. Rather get flooding instead. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 UK moved nw, but not by much. The far nw edge gets to CR. The main snow band is centered from central Missouri to Milwaukee. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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