1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[bud2380]

GFS barely even hits CR with wave 2. Only about 1".  

[Hawkeye]

Over the last 12-24 hours, the GFS has gone from nothing to 3-6 across the state from wave #1.

 

I wish wave #2 didn't have to seesaw downward while wave #1 went up.

[jcwxguy]

Trends good for Lincoln/Omaha but such a narrow band, few miles could make a big difference

[GDR]

Nam and euro vs gfs I wonder which will win

[Money]

Milwaukee gets .6 inches of freezing rain followed by 6-10 from 2nd wave

 

2-3 here from 1st wave and 5-7 from 2nd wave but riding the edge

[BMT]

Looks like new watches further west in Kansas 

[WBadgersW]

Milwaukee gets .6 inches of freezing rain followed by 6-10 from 2nd wave

 

2-3 here from 1st wave and 5-7 from 2nd wave but riding the edge

RIP MKE

[ToastedRavs]

Des Moines expands the Watch. About time. Just in time for news

[Grizzcoat]

WSW just issued C.IA---

[bud2380]

The GFS is garbage.  That's my opinion.  I'd ride the Euro, 3k NAM and HRRR.  

[jcwxguy]

3km Nam is not good for Omaha and.lincoln

[East Dubzz]

Nam and euro vs gfs I wonder which will win

I’m not sure, but I usually feel better when I have the Euro in my side.. which seems to be rare

[Niko]

My headline is crazy, all sorts of watches Only concern I have is freezing rain that will develop on Saturday. UGH!

[jaster220]

While NOT for mby, it is nice to see these words in the AFD. They also seem to be much more positive instead of the usual "storm cancel" mode we see so often.

 

Across the
north...forecasted snow amounts have been increased and the risk
for a foot of snow is on the rise.

[NH4NU]

I would gladly take this. Win for a lot of us!

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011003&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Grizzcoat]

RAP continues to hammer E.NE into W.IA and on NE

[jcwxguy]

Latest rap

[snowstorm83]

GFS probably smoked a little bit too much tonight. Regardless, I still feel good about 2-4" for Omaha/Lincoln - though that's like the 4th time I've said that this season and the biggest snow here has been 1.5". 

[jaster220]

I never tire of seeing these words..

 

 

 

• Strong winds creating very low visibility and near blizzard conditions at times over parts of the area.

• Travel will become very difficult during this time, especially Saturday night.

[james1976]

I'd prolly side with the short term models over the GFS. Schnack said the watch may have to be adjusted to the NW. Des Moines mentioned the possibility as well.

[jcwxguy]

Nws oax

[Grizzcoat]

GFS probably smoked a little bit too much tonight. Regardless, I still feel good about 2-4" for Omaha/Lincoln - though that's like the 4th time I've said that this season and the biggest snow here has been 1.5". 

Biggest here was 3.0" way back in early NOV before it got to -1F.  snow total is 8.3" for the year so one can see how pathetic it has been since then. including 2.2" in OCT-- or 3" in two months since. Were due.

Pretty confident this area will see 3"+ so got that going - which is nice.

[bud2380]

Canadian is awful.  Seriously really bad.  LOL.

 

[Clinton]

00z GFS mean

[Hawkeye]

Canadian is awful.  Seriously really bad.  LOL.

 

 

First wave strong and nw, second weak and east.  This is not something we were thinking about a day or two ago.

 

I'm curious why the NAM/HRRR/GFS/Euro have heavy snow down to Cedar Rapids while the Canadian, which tends to have a cold bias, has the snow way nw.

[bud2380]

First wave strong and nw, second weak and east.  This is not something we were thinking about a day or two ago.

Unless the Euro flips to this, i'm not gonna worry.  18z Euro had 10"+ right over Iowa City.  

[gabel23]

Biggest here was 3.0" way back in early NOV before it got to -1F. snow total is 8.3" for the year so one can see how pathetic it has been since then. including 2.2" in OCT-- or 3" in two months since. Were due.

Pretty confident this area will see 3"+ so got that going - which is nice.

You and I are sitting at pretty much the same total and I received the majority of my total from the one storm in November. That just tells you how random these systems have been this year; your area, Omaha, Lincoln and out in central Nebraska all sit close to the same latitude yet we vary in snow totals from 7 to upwards of 30!!!!

[jaster220]

"Punk" 0z GFS wants to troll me sooooo badly

 

[Clinton]

"Punk" 0z GFS wants to troll me sooooo badly

 

20200110 0z GFS h54 Surf.PNG

It's trying to hose me!

[Madtown]

First wave strong and nw, second weak and east.  This is not something we were thinking about a day or two ago.

 

I'm curious why the NAM/HRRR/GFS/Euro have heavy snow down to Cedar Rapids while the Canadian, which tends to have a cold bias, has the snow way nw.

Has the GFS been right yet this winter?

[bud2380]

Has the GFS been right yet this winter?

There was a storm once that the GFS was insistent on several days out and the Euro had nothing and the GFS ended up right.  But from what I have seen it has not done well overall at all and not done well in the short term at all.  

[Money]

00z GFS mean

That’s 18z, right?

[jcwxguy]

That’s 18z, right?

yes

[bud2380]

Ukie is already 15 minutes late, not updating for some reason.  

[Niko]

[Hawkeye]

Ukie is already 15 minutes late, not updating for some reason.  

 

I've noticed that as well.  The only real change I expect is a juicing-up of the first wave because the last couple runs have been pretty weak and dry.

[snowstorm83]

That’s 18z, right?

 

 

00z mean is NW with wave 1 (4" for LNK-OMA-DSM) and wave 2 looks about the same, maybe slightly east.

[james1976]

I'm riding the Euro. Everything else is a mess right now. Seriously more flopping than yesterday.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Grizzcoat]

another nice run of the RAP for many reading and still snowing heavily at HR 21-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011004&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=